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Tuesday, February 3, 2026
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Last Quad 4 came a week early and ended 3 weeks early.
December was the last monthly Quad 4. This is not Quad 4.
To see what a true Quad 4 looks like, check out this post from November 21, 2025: https://similarset.kit.com/posts/friday-november-21st-2025
The Quad 4 before that?
Hit in February of last year—and almost no one saw it coming... except the signal. Here's why I trust it over everything else: https://similarset.kit.com/posts/why-i-trust-the-signal-over-everything-else
If you've followed along since then, you've experienced the full Quad cycles firsthand. This time coming out of Quad 4, inflation hasn't shown up, so you might not have seen a classic full-on Quad 1. Last year tech and Bitcoin led the bull run (Quad2); this year it's small caps and growth taking the lead.
VIX
Remember November's VIX spike?
It trended up briefly but faded fast. Back in last February's Quad 4, VIX climbed all the way to 58 by April.
Right now there's plenty of market panic, but the math says things are still stable. We're holding TREND while overrunning TRADE. A close and clear separation above TREND at 20.85 would be a warning shot.
Depending on what you bought "the damn dip" in changes how you think this market is performing.
Staples (XLP)
Three days later and 5% higher, staples reflect exactly how the market feels. That's because people chased metals and bought dips that weren't actually dips in crypto. Similar Set owners saw this coming.
Monday, January 26, 2026 :
"Now the low end of the RANGE has caught up and price is close to another buy."
Industrials (XLI)
Same story here—same expected outcome.
It was the third fractal buy since flipping to Bullish TREND.
You can't wait until after it works to buy; you have to spot the math in real time and execute relentlessly, day after day. Dips never "feel" good —but when you see the math clearly, they don't feel like anything. They just look like a green arrow appearing.
Friday Post:
"Industrials was the other sector giving a mathematical sign to buy the dip while the VIX was signaling the overall market. Today it touched the upper RANGE boundary."
ITB
Some people on X called me an idiot for buying ITB. The math disagreed—and the math was right.
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ITB touched TREND before launching 3% higher to the top end of RANGE. Will it hold? Maybe not—that's why you trim at the top of RANGE and move to the next fractal buy.
On days like today ( VIX hovering over TRADE), selling some winners to hedge a potential second bullish TRADE break (and possible test of bullish TREND) is how you win consistently. There's always another buy signal waiting with the Similar Set Signal.
INTC
Speaking of winners: On January 23rd the signal noted:
"Similar Set Signal flagged the buy on Jan 6. Rode the top of the RANGE for 11 days, capturing 38%. Now pulled back 15% and sitting at TREND—another buy opportunity."
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Now it's up 15% from there. Not all tech is struggling—the signal highlights the winners vs. the losers.
MSFT
Here's a loser:
Microsoft is down 15% since hitting the top end of RANGE inside bearish TRADE/TREND. Fractal math works both ways.
Russell 2000 (IWM)
Small caps are still holding bullish TRADE/TREND, but if you keep buying dips in just one ticker, you're not diversified. The signal lets you spread risk around. XLP and XLI are not IWM and none of these are macro assets—they're US Equities.
Macro Markets
GVAL
While U.S. equities chop sideways, global value has gone straight up.
Owning bullish TRADE/TREND setups in different asset classes is how you win when the crowd loses.
But you need a way to spot opportunities across everything that ticks—Similar Set Signal models it all and shows TRADE/TREND/RANGE math 24/7.
Gold
Yesterday's signal said buy.
Today it's up 7%.
The 2025 epic bull run in GLD may be over, maybe not, but the fractal math should have already put money in your pocket on metals and have you positioned from much lower.
The signal caught yesterday's move perfectly—but what did you do on the last 10 fractal buys?
URA
"Rule of thumb: higher volatility = harder to manage, which is why so many get wrecked in metals and crypto."
Silver is at historic volatility levels—you don't have to play with that fire. Buys in SLV were months ago. Now it's time to roll some profits into URA as the dollar looks set to drop again.
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DXY
Bearish TREND/TRADE. The process says to short (or go long FX). We want to see RANGE keep falling, crossing TRADE and then TREND—but this bounce was expected.
From Friday:
"When you can actually see the Signal, all those questions disappear. Fractally, this is clearly the first leg down after breaking bearish TREND. I'm positioned with limit orders waiting to go long FX on the first touch of TRADE—still inside a strong bearish TREND."
Today:
British Pound FXB
Follow the fractal math.
Bitcoin
Bearish TREND since October 10. It had a chance to reverse on January 13 but flipped back bearish January 14—signaling 100% short (meaning full short position, not 100% win rate). Now down over 16% from there and 35% from the first fractal short back in October.
The Similar Set Signal removes emotion and FOMO.
It gives you clear levels on every ticker—every day.
If you want to see these TRADE/TREND/RANGE signals in real time and start executing like this consistently, subscribe now, this either changes your life or you get your money back, there is no risk in trying.
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
""Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Uncertainty is not a bug in the process. It is the operating condition. The Signal can move from Quad2 to Quad4 to Quad1 because markets are non-linear. The job is not to explain it, but to...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...