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The beauty in having the full fractal math is that I can operate in a state of complete uncertainty but still be absolutely certain what I should do. The Similar Set Signal prints crystal clear fractal Instructions for me daily.
I don’t know what Quad the market is in today. I don’t know what it will price in tomorrow. But I know exactly what to do with the VIX holding a bearish TREND and closing back below TRADE.
Close shorts from running neutral to get net long in US equities.
Note:
If the market starts closing above TRADE, it can make another push toward TREND and I’ll go back to running neutral. This is why it’s so important to see the math for yourself — things can happen quickly.
MAGS mirrored the VIX fractal instructions.
Remember the fractal cycle of momentum — it’s the SECOND break of TRADE that is usually the one you need to worry about. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, check the Similar Set handbook at the top of this email for articles and videos explaining fractal instructions in detail.
Credit has made a big turn in the signal, failing below TREND. Not a Quad 4 sign.
Bond volatility also isn’t worried about a pending Quad 4 as of today.
If you’re getting chopped up by headlines or whipsawed by trying to listen only to Keith instead of seeing the math on your own, it’s easy to panic. You feel like you don’t know what to do. Then the market does this — and you’ve missed most of the move up from April 8th. You feel like you finally bought the dip in size, then got run over, exited, and went short… while the chart never even came close to TREND.
Small caps at ATH leading all US indices is not a Quad 4 signal. Take some profits here. It’s one of the few things sitting at the top end of the RANGE.
Unless you have a “macro team” or specialize in one asset like Gold or Oil, you don’t have the certainty to trade all of macro. With the Similar Set Signal, you have the same level of certainty across the board. Fractal math models it all. You don’t need to know anything more than every ticker’s TRADE, TREND, TAIL, and RANGE to execute.
The Signal knew what to do BEFORE the headlines. It doesn’t care how many people are talking about reserves being used up. All it cares about is the flows, which are measured and mapped, giving you clear instructions to get short Oil on June 1st after breaking TREND and pulling back.
XLE might have some catching up to do as it sits in bearish TRADE/TREND ready to return to pre-war levels.
Euro made its initial push after the math told you to get short. Now it’s coming back to that level in bearish TRADE/TREND. Could get another opportunity to diversify your book.
Korea has basically followed US markets, so not much of a hedge in this global equity mix.
Brazil, on the other hand, is coming up on a clear short when it hits the top end of the RANGE in bearish TRADE/TREND.
I know nothing about Brazil. I don’t know its Quads. I don’t know who runs it or what the latest headline is. I know the fractal math: TRADE, TREND, RANGE.
May 26–29 was an important shift in macro. Across the board, assets went from inflation to deflation. It’s when TLT broke into bullish TRADE and the math told you to reduce. Then the signal continued to weaken day after day, with TREND following to the middle of the RANGE as TRADE crept lower, showing bullish structure. You should have been at your absolute minimum and exited the rest yesterday.
Gold still sucks.
HECA still sucks. Pay for the ownership of Similar Set Signal’s fractal so you don’t just buy something like this thinking it will run the process for you.
Everyone is getting excited. The math is saying it’s almost time for another short (another way to hedge).
Ready to trade with this kind of daily clarity and certainty? Subscribe to Similar Set Signal today and get the full fractal math working for you across every market in real time. Click here to join now risk free.
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No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Crash calls require signal, not narrative. The key is identifying emergent properties across similar sets, fractal dimensions, and multiple durations." — Keith McCullough If you are freaking out...