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How to Read Chart

Left Side - Daily (Similar Set TREND)

Right Side - 4HR (Similar Set TRADE)

Keith from the Early look:

There’s no such thing as “short-term” or “long-term.” There’s only what the market is doing right now. Sometimes that lasts weeks, sometimes months, sometimes entire quarters.

The Similar Set Signal keeps me in sync with those turns. It called the April reversal (Tuesday, April 29th, 2025) before Keith, as he was writing, “Make Puts Great Again,”. It also had me positioned for Quad 4 two weeks ago before Hedgeye made the call.

I'm not dunking on Keith, I'm just highlighting with the Similar Set Signal, you don't need to rely on him.

At the end of the day, it all boils down to one question: Are you making money today… or not? You should be able to make money in every environment—not just the mother-of-all-bubbles.

Russell 2000

Real-time versus hindsight is what separates amateurs from professionals. So I’ll ask: What did you actually do yesterday—in real time? Did you need Keith to tell you to get out and get short? Or could you see that for yourself?

Now that the position is on, here’s the simple plan:

• If price comes back to TREND → add
• If it breaks TREND → exit
• If it keeps running → look to TAIL to take some profit

Just like a TRADE break pulls price to TREND, a TREND break pulls price to TAIL—currently about 10% lower from my small-cap entry.

VIX

Classic Quad 4 trending volatility. Bullish TRADE and TREND. Only a close below 21.5 changes that story.

Nasdaq

This is exactly how tops look fractally:

1. Fail at TRADE
2. Test TREND
3. Fail again above TRADE, forming a massive lower high
4. Bearish TREND confirmed

Did you see it as it happened? With the Similar Set Signal, you would have.

Yesterday: How bottoms look fractally (Bitcoin)​

Quad 4 Indicators:

Bond volatility (MOVE) and credit spreads (HYG) are still saying Quad 4. If they flip, I don't care how long it stayed that way—I move with the market.

MOVE

HYG

DXY

The dollar began transitioning on September 18th and confirmed on October 8th.

The Similar Set Signal flagged FX moves six weeks earlier—all timestamped. Now we’re in the meat of the move.

Current portfolio positioning (all timestamped, all real-time):

• Short FX
• Short small caps
• Fumbled the Bitcoin short (it happens)
• Long bonds
• Long gold

Risk is still rising, and the book is perfectly prepared.

Hindsight is always crystal clear—even to the moving monkey crowd. The only way to actually improve is to study what you did (or didn’t do) on the exact days those arrows fire in real time.

YEN

CAD

ZB! (T-Bonds)

Bonds finally closed with separation above TRADE—bullish confirmation. Doesn’t look like much yet and could reverse, but the signal says add long bond exposure. Execute.

Close + Separation Example

Gold

Struggling to clear TRADE, but the range lows keep making higher lows and stay above TREND. Bearish TRADE, so no adds—but I’m not selling unless TREND breaks. Patience.

Bitcoin

TAIL failed to produce much of a bounce. Color stays neutral until the weekly close, but it’s shaping up bearish—which is exactly what triggered the last bear market. I’m not predicting a year-long crash; I’m just observing and acting on what the market is saying today.

Not shorting here—the clean entry was 20% higher at 109k—but planning the next short is critical. Real-time is always harder.

Signal @similar_set $Bitcoin A bounce to $96,700 is just a starting place to short. (Similar Set TRADE) A bounce to $106,100 is a place to aggressively short. (Similar Set TREND) Meanwhile all of X is calling for a bottom after bagholding this 25% crash 🤦‍♂️ Better way: https://similarset.kit.com/__signal 9:26 PM • Nov 20, 2025 1 Retweets 2 Likes

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Oil

I de-risked into vacation when oil broke TRADE for the third time—still made money—but left this one on the table too. The Similar Set Signal held TREND to the exact tick. New lows look likely in Quad 4.

The most common feedback I get from subscribers?

“I’m actually getting better!”

It doesn’t happen overnight. But every Quad shift you watch in real time, learn from your mistakes, and level up. I still make mistakes this turn (Bitcoin, Oil), but they were “I could have made more money” mistakes—not wrong-side blowups. I’ve been the bag-holder. I’ve learned the hard way. Until you put the signal on your own charts, the process of getting better can’t even begin.

Pull the trigger today—subscribe to the Similar Set Signal. There’s zero risk with a full 90-day money-back guarantee, no questions asked. Need a payment plan? Just reply to this email and I’ll set it up.

What are customers saying about the Similar Set Signal?

Your Signal is already paying off nicely

This is exactly what all Hedgeye subs are missing

What a game changer

Accelerated my understanding of the process like you can’t believe

This is the tool I needed!

For the first time since becoming a Hedgeye sub

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If you have any questions, reply to this email and I'll get back to you!