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How to Read Chart

Left Side - Similar Set TREND

Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

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Quad 4 Indicators

The key Quad 4 indicators have made decisive moves against Quad 4 conditions.

• VIX
• Nasdaq
• Small Caps
• MOVE
• HYG

There are days when you need to act and there are days you wait and watch, Monday was a day to act since then I've been waiting and watching and collectively these aren’t signaling Quad 4 right now. It’s not short term. It’s simply doing what the market IS doing not what it SHOULD do.

VIX

Yesterday: "Can you go both ways?"

Were you able to see when the VIX had the risk of jumping to the Fuck Bucket vs when it broke down into episodic non-trending volatility, in real-time?

We now have the 3rd straight bearish close on TRADE/TREND, and the low end of the range is dropping below 16 → Clear not Quad 4 signals.

Nasdaq

This is why I exit when the signal tells me too. It was a damn good exit.

I’m not hoping for a reversal; the signal is objectively bullish on TRADE/TREND with plenty of room to the top of the range. Hope is not a risk-management strategy.

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​(Note: the top of the range is forming a big lower high vs. the all-time high.)

Russell 2000 (Small Caps)

Same exact signal—bullish TRADE/TREND. Exited cleanly.

Discipline + zero emotion = winning process.

MOVE Index

Yesterday it was a question mark—would it separate and close below TREND?

Today it’s making a clear statement → Not Quad 4 right now.

HYG (High-Yield Credit)

Same story—strong move away from TREND → Quad 4 territory.

Gold

​Tuesday, November 25th, 2025 :

Gold just flipped back to bullish TRADE and is now inside a bullish TRADE/TREND structure. It’s ready to reshape the range higher and drive toward all-time highs.

Bonds

Bonds have done the same thing recently—broken into bullish TRADE inside a bullish TREND and are grinding higher while holding the TRADE level. The Similar Set Signal delivered perfect buy arrows. Now we just sit back and let the bullish fractal do its work.

DXY

The dollar is struggling right at the TRADE level. Nothing is clear yet—waiting for more closes and separation to see if it holds bullish or makes another run at the low end of the range/TREND.

Positioning is everything in markets. Being on time (those first two green arrows) is what pays. Thank you, Similar Set Signal.

Bitcoin

Still can’t catch a bid, but the setup is unchanged from yesterday. After a 31% crash I’m not stepping in to short while TRADE sits smack in the middle of the range. Holiday shenanigans are common in BTC—wouldn’t be shocked to see a big counter-trend pop above TRADE over the Holdiays.

Final Thought

I’m genuinely grateful for the Similar Set Signal and for every one of you who read these updates and trade alongside me. Markets aren’t zero-sum—we really can all win together. Happy Thanksgiving!

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