Wednesday, November 19th, 2025


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Pro Tip: If you want bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile

How to Read Chart

Left Side - Daily (Similar Set TREND)

Right Side - 4HR (Similar Set TRADE)

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In markets, process beats panic. Math beats religion. And receipts beat narratives. Every. Single. Time.
— Keith McCullough

Successful investing isn't about conviction in stories—it's about respecting signals, managing risk every day, and letting process and math lead the way.

The markets are doing exactly what the math says they should be doing right now.

If you're not making money—or you're just hoping today is finally the day Quad 4 ends—that means it's time to change your process.

Having the Similar Set Signal on your screen instantly changes everything, because for the first time you can truly SEE what Keith sees.

VIX

Hope you didn’t buy the “dip” yesterday (it wasn’t a dip). The signals told you not to—and actually told you to short small caps.

Russell 2000

Just missed a fill on the small-cap short while VIX was testing its bullish TREND at 22. The Russell came right to the edge of TRADE inside its bearish TREND after closing and separating below it.

Nasdaq

Hope you didn’t buy the dip here either. Since I didn’t get filled on small caps, I may look at Nasdaq for a short position. That’s what makes the signal so powerful—you can be long every single dip in a bubble, watch it pop in real time, exit cleanly, and then flip to shorting that same bubble just weeks later.

Bearish Equity TRENDS

MSFT

Bearish TRADE/TREND.

NVDA

NVDA just handed you a fresh short opportunity. At the very least, don’t be long any ticker that looks like this.

META

Meta broke the Similar Set TREND on Sept 30 while putting in three massive lower highs. Now down 26% from its peak. The signal would have gotten you out.

AMZN

Bearish TRADE/TREND. Look at the precision—the signal flips bullish and bearish exactly when it should. The math is incredibly accurate.

PLTR

Big lower highs → bearish TRADE/TREND.

NFLX

Netflix just flashed a short signal from the top of its range at bearish TRADE/TREND. Did you see it coming before it dropped 5%?

HYG

Bearish TRADE/TREND → classic Quad 4.

MOVE

Bullish TRADE/TREND → classic Quad 4.

ZB! (T-Bonds Futures)

Patience is key. I don’t know why rates are struggling to flip back to bullish TRADE—I just know the process and the math say to stay positioned for it.

DXY

Back to bullish TRADE/TREND. The market is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do in Quad 4.

Yesterday:

YEN

Meanwhile FX keeps printing while the crowd keeps calling for “the bottom” in equites and bitcoin everyday, extending their pain.

Gold

Chopping around TRADE, but the low end of the range keeps rising and volatility is shrinking. Bullish until it breaks TREND at 3,880.

Bitcoin

I should be printing even more on this short (check the arrows), but I botched the management while drunk for three days in Mexico. That’s okay—the Bitcoin bagholders are still down 27%. I just left some extra profit on the table.

Ask yourself: What positioning changes have you made since October 10th? Did you even see that Quad 4 was signaled?

You can’t go back in time, but you can learn from it. The biggest mistake you can make right now is not having the Similar Set Signal on your screens—so you can instantly SEE when Quad 4 finally ends and capture the entire move back up.

Subscribe to Similar Set Signal today and never miss the math again.

What are customers saying about the Similar Set Signal?

Your Signal is already paying off nicely

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What a game changer

Accelerated my understanding of the process like you can’t believe

This is the tool I needed!

For the first time since becoming a Hedgeye sub

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Similar Set Signal

No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.

Read more from Similar Set Signal

""Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Uncertainty is not a bug in the process. It is the operating condition. The Signal can move from Quad2 to Quad4 to Quad1 because markets are non-linear. The job is not to explain it, but to...

Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...

Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...