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How to Read Chart

Left Side - Similar Set TREND

Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

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What will Powell say today?
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Honestly, it doesn’t matter. If you’re moving your money based on what a government official says, you don’t have an edge. Today is just another market day: read the math and execute.

VIX

• Monday: Broke bearish TRADE
• Tuesday: Broke bearish TREND
• Today: Bouncing off the low end of the RANGE, heading back toward the bearish TREND level (24.34)

Having TREND sit in the middle of the RANGE is not the same as “buy the damn dip” (that requires a pullback signal). Still, it does signal meaningful fractal shifts.

Since TRADE broke on Monday, the math said to expect lower prices—and it delivered. Yesterday’s close below TREND means this is a bearish bounce. Expect more downside unless it can reclaim the bullish TREND. No moves from me before the Fed meeting.

SPY

SPY isn’t showing the same signal as VIX.

It remains in a bearish TRADE and TREND, with the RANGE now approaching a cross below TREND (not sitting in the middle like VIX).

The next few days will reveal which one is leading and which is lagging.

Sector Signals

XLE

Notice the difference in signal strength here.

You don’t need to make tough decisions on unclear tickers. Stick to the obvious layups and get better by practicing real-time reading around TREND.

XLU

Layup.

Now just 1.33% away from another one (low end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE/TREND).

XLRE

Don’t buy in the middle of the RANGE. Buy at the fractal levels.

XLP

Similar Set TRADE broke on March 5. Staples have been trending down ever since.

• TRADE gives you immediate direction.
• TREND gives you the edge.

You don’t need to nail every call around TREND to be profitable—you just need to hit your layups and exit when the signal tells you to (get rid of bagholding).

The exit hasn’t triggered here yet, but it could soon.

Macro Markets

TLT

Hit your layups → exited on the TREND break.

DXY

Whatever the Fed says will influence DXY and rates. But I don’t care what they say—I care what the math says before and after. Right now the math is saying: DXY ↑ → Rates ↑ → (Bonds down)

DXY

​Tuesday, March 17, 2026​

Expectation was a bounce off TRADE until proven otherwise. Where did DXY go? Right to Similar Set TRADE.

30YR

Bullish TRADE/TREND. Rates ↑

GVAL

Dollar up = bad for global equities.

The signal told you exactly when the layup line was over.

(Started in May 2025 → just ended March 3rd)

NORW

Not all global equities share the same fractal math. That’s why Keith is long NORW. The layup line is still in play and today reaching a new all-time high.

Math said this was the expectation.

USO

If you didn’t execute the signal in real time, you missed the chance to get in. People holding energy stocks and oil are having a very different experience than those who aren’t. The math gave clear instructions.

HECA

Signal is gaining strength. Do you know why?

The goal of this newsletter is to prove the math works, get it on your screen, and teach you how to read it.
Strength is building because:

• The low end of the RANGE is shrinking (lower vol)
• It’s getting further above TREND (green line)
• The top end is starting to flatten (red line)

The particulars matter—and they’re 10× clearer with visual representation.

GLD

​Monday, March 16, 2026​

Gold is the best chart to study today.

Gold doesn’t like a higher dollar + higher rates (both strongly bullish right now).

It broke TRADE on Friday → immediate-term direction turned down.

Now it’s gapped below TREND, and the low end of the RANGE (green line) has crossed below TREND (weakening). No exit signal yet—it says reduce more (second TRADE break)—but be ready to cut if it breaks TREND.

That was the plan four days ago.

Know your next move before it happens.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin was sitting at the top end of the RANGE—mean reversion was expected.

Expected to go where? Similar Set TRADE.

Where did it go? 70,900.

Where is TRADE? 70,800.

Now it’s at a decision point, but expect higher until proven otherwise (i.e., a break to bearish TRADE for immediate-term direction change).

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