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How to Read Chart

Left Side - Similar Set TREND

Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

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VIX

​Tuesday, March 10, 2026​

VIX remains anchored at the Similar Set TREND. We're still in wait-and-watch mode.

• A breakdown below could push VIX under 19.
• A hold followed by a break back above the Similar Set TRADE level could send it over 30.

Close and separation are what matter most here—review the handbook for more details on these concepts.

MOVE

Bond volatility has been bullish since February 27, and nothing has changed. It still has plenty of work to do to break the bearish TREND, which sits near the low end of the RANGE.

HYG

HYG bounced off the low end of the RANGE and reached the TREND level at 80.39 (price hit 80.38).

Right now, VIX, MOVE, and HYG are still signaling risk-off. Stay patient and follow the math's instructions every day.

QQQ

The Similar Set TREND continues to act as a ceiling, rejecting price repeatedly. Avoid holding bearish TRADE TREND tickers.

SPY

Yesterday we noted that things might be turning, but today's math reversed that—everything has been rejected at key decision areas so far.

Sector Signals

That was a overview of U.S. equity signal strength. I don't hold positions in those tickers, but analyzing them helps you read the machine as a whole.

XLE

This was the sector on sale yesterday. Other were down but not on sale there's a difference. It didn't quite reach the low end of the RANGE, but it's one of the only sectors up today because it's one of the few still in a bullish TRADE TREND.

XOP

It didn't get close to the low, but you should still hold core positions in U.S. energy equities.

USO

Oil bounced off Similar Set TRADE and TREND, with the RANGE close to crossing TREND again. This wasn't a "buy the dip"—it was sell some near the red arrow, hold the rest, and look to add U.S. equity energy names.

​Tuesday, March 10, 2026​

Know what you'll do based on process before it happens.

XLU

We just ran this management exercise with XLI and XLP.

If it holds Similar Set TRADE (currently 2.17% lower), expect it to run higher. If TRADE breaks, TREND is right behind it (3.07% lower)—so don't reduce there; exit fully only if TREND breaks.

That's what the math says.

Listening to the math has an 80% hit rate.

It will tell you when to get out, but that won't happen until another +3% lower.

Notice that entry trades (especially shorts) are much lower because they're taken at TREND (like VIX and SPY right now)—price is at a decision point that could go either way, but the first pullback is already in a confirmed fractal trend and tells you to buy on sale in the middle of it.

It's why I call out so many low end of the RANGE where I analyze when price is at TREND. Much harder to make a one rule fits all for backtest.

XLP

Looks like TRADE has broken—expect TREND next. Set your orders.

XLI

You should already be in from ~2% lower at TREND. A break above TRADE means we run toward the top end of the RANGE (+6.67%).

We're in the middle of a storm, and most people are giving back gains from the last 12 months. Process is limiting damage to ~3% drawdowns in a few sectors while making money in many other macro tickers.

U.S. equities should now be a smaller percentage of your portfolio as the signal continues to weaken.

But that's a new development, what did you do with the last five fractal signals—not just the one with a 3% drawdown?

Macro Markets

Short FX, long Gold, and already in Oil (the asset)—that's what's working, and that's exactly what the signals instructed.

DXY

Flipped from bearish TREND to bullish TREND, getting you out of FX longs (like Aussie) and into FX shorts (like Euro).

Price stalled at the top end of the RANGE, pulled back to TRADE, held, and is now running toward the top end again. Precision math.

The low end (green line) crossing TREND confirms this TREND is gaining strength. Expect the dollar to keep rising.

Euro

​Tuesday, March 10, 2026​

DXY trending up → Euro trending down.

GLD

A healthy portion of your portfolio should be parked in Gold. This signal isn't new—it gave you a place to rotate gains into five days ago.

TLT

Exit. It had promise, but don't care the reason— just follow the fractal math.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has now shown twice that it refuses to go lower in bearish TRADE while in a strong bearish TREND—that's valuable information. Now it's in bullish TRADE with 11% upside to TREND.

HECA

Hedgeye Asset Management does the macro picking for you here—you just follow the signal. It's the same fractal cycle repeating: first break of TRADE → buy at TREND.

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