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Wednesday, February 4, 2026
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Are We Heading for a Quad 4 Moment?
This isn’t necessarily predicting a February–April Quad 4. I’m simply using “Quad 4” as a framework to describe what the collective signals are pointing toward right now—a potential shift. The key signals include:
- VIX: Showing a counter-trend fractal signal
- Nasdaq: Testing a trend breakdown
- HYG: Testing a trend breakdown
- Silver: Down 40% in two days
- Bitcoin: In freefall
Whether we get a true Quad 4 or not doesn’t really matter.
If you’re positioned daily based on the signals, you’ll naturally be aligned for whatever “Quad” the market delivers—whether it’s metals, FX, commodities, global equities, or U.S. sectors like XLP.
Or are you still just heavily concentrated in Nasdaq and NVDA?
Most people have zero real diversification—just different tickers with the same underlying risk exposure. Why? Because it’s hard to build “conviction” in something like Turkey. But all I see are fractal structures. A bullish TRADE/TREND is bullish, no matter what asset it’s modeling.
Conviction is an emotion. Similar Set Signal is a process.
VIX
We’re seeing the second failure of a counter-trend signal in VIX (a warning before a full trend break). We’ve covered counter-trend signals many times before—VIX needs to hold its TREND, but pressure is building for at least an attempt to pop higher.
This isn’t a “buy the dip” like last week’s overrun. Overrun of TRADE has failed, and while we still need a close and separation to confirm, this is not a bullish development for U.S. equities.
The market is firing a warning shot.
Could it stay just a warning? Yes. But it shouldn’t be ignored.
The math is changing in real time. I don’t care what “Quad” label fits—I care what the signal is actually doing.
HYG
Still in a bullish trend—nothing changes until we get a close below it.
We’re at a fractal buy zone with the first break of TRADE and a touch of TREND.
But if we see a clear trend break after this recent move up, it could signal the market has other plans. This is a dramatic shift from just last Thursday.
TLT
Does this mean sell everything and buy TLT? No.
Yields are still in a bullish trend (TLT is inverse to rates), it hasn’t confirmed a break yet (needs close + separation), and you should already be following the signal—which has kept you out of names like NVDA, PLTR, and crypto anyway.
Instead, it’s positioned you in things like XLP.
It’s not about one day you decide “it’s Quad 4—yard sale time.” That's not how this works. It’s about executing the math daily.
Counter-TREND → TREND break timestamp in real time during that brief monthly Quad 4 window back in December.
Wednesday, December 3rd, 2025
"Exit"
QQQ
Bearish TRADE, now working on closing a bearish TREND.
NVDA
Bearish TREND since November 20. Failed right on the screws.
PLTR
Flipped from bullish TREND to bearish TREND on precise dates. Listen to the fractal signals.
Sector Signal
XLP
Buy on green arrows, sell some on red arrows. Fractal Signals.
XLI
The other signal buy.
If you’re struggling in these markets:
- Subscribe to Similar Set Signal (90-day money-back guarantee—it’s literally risk-free).
- Stick to ETFs instead of individual tickers. Lower volatility makes them much easier to manage.
ITB
Bullish TRADE/TREND. Follow the fractal math, and good things happen.
Macro Markets
Imagine being equally weighted in Turkey, South Korea, small caps, XLP, and QQQ (even though bearish TREND signals told you to avoid QQQ—let’s say you held anyway).
You wouldn’t even notice a U.S. Quad 4 moment in your account. But then you scroll X and see the panic sentiment—that’s the reality for most people. Almost no one is positioned like that.
Yet that balanced approach is how everyone should be diversified.
Turkey $TUR
Bullish TREND during the last Quad 4 moment. What if you had bought then? How different would the past three months have looked with a diversified book?
(Sub out individual ticker for something like GVAL or EEM if you want fewer holdings to manage.)
KOESPI
Basically mirrored the epic 2025 U.S. bull run—until the signals began diverging upward. Last 8 fractal signal have been dead right.
GVAL
Global equity ETF GVAL performed even better.
DXY
The dollar is deciding at the Similar Set TRADE level right now.
But even with a break it would just be the first step—TREND follows close behind.
What matters at this point in the fractal cycle is a close below TREND.
Watch how RANGE behaves over the next few days (yesterday it sloped down for a potential cross; today it’s pulling TREND further inside RANGE).
The particulars matter.
Gold
Gold has been the stronger, less volatile metal.
Hopefully you bought the dip—or at least didn’t sell the bounce—as the dollar tries to roll over. That could catalyze a move to the top of the RANGE in gold.
Gold tends to handle Quad 4 environments better than SLV. Equal-weight your positions, and you won’t get whipsawed by higher-vol correlated assets in moments like this.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin itself doesn’t suck—being long a bearish TREND does. For those short crypto, it’s been one of the best assets to be exposed to, and the Signal has nailed the entire wave.
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
""Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Uncertainty is not a bug in the process. It is the operating condition. The Signal can move from Quad2 to Quad4 to Quad1 because markets are non-linear. The job is not to explain it, but to...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...