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Wednesday, February 25, 2026
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The viral Citrini Research piece, "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis", sent shockwaves through markets this week. It paints a chilling hypothetical set in mid-2028: runaway AI success dismantles the foundation of modern economies. White-collar jobs—software engineers, analysts, managers—vanish at scale, sparking mass unemployment, collapsing consumer demand, and a deflationary spiral. The S&P 500 plunges sharply while a handful of AI infrastructure giants quietly thrive.
Sounds scary, right?
Yet amid widespread fears that AI will erase jobs, one role will remain resilient: the professional risk manager who masters fractal mathematics processes.
Start building that skill today with the Similar Set Signal —that job isn't going anywhere.
VIX
Yesterday the VIX moved from 20.6 to 18.5.
Fractal math isn't a smooth 20-day moving average; it's rough, reacting sharply to price, volume, and volatility shifts.
VIX is attempting to break TRADE and sits in a bullish TREND. I wouldn't be heavily exposed to US equities with this signal (but that's a theme we've seen for weeks).
There's still risk of VIX clustering big upside days until the math turns bearish.
SPY
The S&P isn't facing immediate collapse—it's in a bullish TRADE TREND. But with VIX at the low end of its RANGE (bullish TREND) and SPY near the top of its RANGE, don't be surprised by a quick 2% pullback to the lower end.
QQQ
Nasdaq sits squarely at bearish Similar Set TRADE—right where it was rejected last time above TREND. This time the RANGE is providing support too.
US indices have been in "wait and watch" mode for a while. The real money printer has been running in strong sectors, global equities, gold, FX, and bonds.
NVDA
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
NVDA is currently holding the bearish TREND in QQQ together.
A VIX breakdown to bearish TRADE TREND could open the door to new all-time highs—especially with the extreme bearish sentiment on X.
The math changes daily and doesn't lie. Can you hold both bearish and bullish views and execute whatever the signal says? It becomes a lot easier when you can see the math.
Sector Signals
XLP
Bullish TRADE TREND at the low end of the RANGE.
That signal—plus discipline—is all you need to stop worrying about AI erasing jobs.
XLE
XLE is as close as it's been to the low end of its RANGE (in bullish TRADE and TREND) since the January 7 breakout.
XOP
Did you catch S&P Oil & Gas Exploration flash a fractal buy at the daily low—or do you wait for someone else to alert you? Similar Set Signal is built so anyone can spot and act on these moves themselves.
XLI
What about XLI? If you can't see the signal in real time, you'll always be a step behind—and lack the confidence to execute.
Macro Markets
KOSPI
Another 2% day. Similar Set Signal nailed the low on Friday, February 6—over 22% lower.
What gave the conviction to act?
Bullish TRADE TREND with RANGE sitting above both. That's it.
Nikkei
What about Nikkei— up 5% in two days since the buy signal.
Yet most people are fixated on IGV while a raging bull runs in global equities.
Process + access to the signal = money printer.
MOO
Diversify into the strongest signals in emerging sectors. MOO (Agribusiness) just printed its first buy of 2026.
Imagine you bought the last signal and were riding core positions from 20% lower while Wall Street, Jane Street, and everyone else on X is having a terrible 2026.
Seeing the Signal is what makes that difference.
USO
The process works both ways: sell some at the top end of RANGEs and be ready to buy back at the bottom.
TLT
Wish you'd had this price? You would have—with Similar Set Signal.
Clear buy now that the low end of the RANGE sits above TREND, with plenty of room to the top.
Expect continuation.
Aussie
Another round trip on the Aussie dollar. Equal-weighted positions make this 1.32% move worth taking to the bank.
Hold core positions from strong entries (like the recent TLT signal), then trade around them using the RANGE.
Notice the market never made a new high after the last sell signal, yet the process delivered nearly double the profit. Markets rarely move in straight lines—and if you follow the process correctly, you don't want them to.
YEN
Yen is closing back below bearish TREND, easing macro conditions. No narratives—just bearish TREND fractal math.
GLD
It feels good to run a diversified book with strong fractal signals. You're allowed to feel good about disciplined decisions—just don't make decisions based on feelings.
Plenty of room to the low end of the RANGE; sell some and follow the process.
IBIT
This is why I stayed out of Bitcoin: down 5% yesterday, up 10% today (off the low end of the RANGE). Now it's at the top end within bearish TRADE and TREND—a fractal short signal.
That doesn't mean you have to take it. I've consistently avoided shorts when something is already down 50% and people are dancing on graves (shorts were called at 115K and 90K, timestamped in newsletters). I didn't suffer a single percent of the drawdown being long after 110K Bitcoin.
Don't worry eventually the signal will turn and this newsletter will be hammering crypto the way we're hammering global equities right now. There's always a raging bull somewhere; most people just can't see it until it's too late.
Ready to stop reacting and start seeing the market like this every day?
Subscribe to Similar Set Signal today and get the fractal edge that turns uncertainty into repeatable process. One that doesn't go away with Ai innovation and that is completely risk free to try.
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Crash calls require signal, not narrative. The key is identifying emergent properties across similar sets, fractal dimensions, and multiple durations." — Keith McCullough If you are freaking out...