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One of the hardest lessons in trading is learning to take profits. It's tough for two main reasons:
Similar Set Signal solves both problems at once. Here’s a look at recent signals and how they’re playing out:
IWM is up 10% since the entry signal. It has completed two round trips from the low end to the top end of its RANGE (~3% each trip).
By holding a core position while selling some at the top of the RANGE and buying back at the low end, you could have captured ~16% in gains—versus just 10% from buy-and-hold.
Key takeaway: Keep a core position, but take some profits at RANGE highs, rotate into the next signal, and repeat. There’s always something else setting up.
Still locked in a bearish TRADE TREND with mathematical room to reach the lower end of its RANGE.
Bullish TREND bullish TRADE for now, but the top of the RANGE is starting to roll over while the low end hasn’t recovered. Credit still needs time to sort itself out.
Nasdaq shows a similar fractal pattern, but it’s currently overrunning the bearish TRADE. It tested the TREND today and bounced right off it. Rule remains the same: If TREND breaks, exit everything—no bag holding.
Buy at the green arrows, sell portions at the red.
QTUM is up 10% from the entry arrow and has made two full RANGE round trips. The first pullback was ~6%; the most recent tested TREND after a 10% move.
So without selling some at RANGE highs, a TREND failure would have turned that 10% gain into basically breakeven (~0.38% from entry). By taking partial profits, you effectively doubled the percentage points captured during the same price action.
Taking profits is only half the equation. Similar Set Signal also delivers clear entries—so you know exactly when to buy the TREND.
"Flashing entry signal"
You can’t go back and add the trade after it works. You have to recognize and act on it in real time.
First bullish signal since November 18. TREND sits down at 182.77.
Another clear example where selling portions doubled the profits available.
Always keep a core position when taking partial profits. Ride winners while playing the RANGE.
Industrials and Staples have gone nearly straight up since the last fractal buys. If you followed the signals, your experience has been very different from what’s being posted on X (crypto falling again).
RANGE round trip complete. Core entry signal still ~13% lower. Buy when price reaches the RANGE and sits above bullish TRADE TREND—every time.
Diversify and execute.
Don’t chase. RANGE is making higher lows and holding bullish TRADE. Best entries come when DXY tests bearish TREND (which nailed the entire bearish transition starting in December).
One of the strongest pairs since DXY flipped bearish. We’ve covered it the whole way.
Interesting to watch. The last major bullish TREND in YEN coincided with the Quad 4 crash of 2025. We just saw a Quad 4-moment on the first attempt at bullish TREND last week.
One signal isn’t truth, but combined with VIX, HYG, MOVE, and now YEN—it’s a macro setup worth monitoring. No narrative, just math.
At a key decision point. First real chance to break TREND since flipping bullish on December 5. A yield TREND flip would carry big macro implications.
Thrives on lower dollar + lower rates. You can’t rewind to January 30 and buy 7% lower at TREND—you act in real time. A rates breakdown would accelerate a move to RANGE highs or even new all-time highs.
Still sucks. Still no fractal shorts and no longs until ~79K breaks.
If you want clear, math-driven signals that help you take profits systematically, rotate capital, and catch entries in real time—subscribe to Similar Set Signal today. Don’t wait for hindsight. Join now and start acting on the next setup here:
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No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
""Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Uncertainty is not a bug in the process. It is the operating condition. The Signal can move from Quad2 to Quad4 to Quad1 because markets are non-linear. The job is not to explain it, but to...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...