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Today is an important date for timestamping. The VIX, US indices, MOVE, and HYG are all flashing risk-on signals.

You’ve now seen the Similar Set Signal guide you through the full cycle: getting out, going short early, stepping back to wait and watch, and now flipping back to long. How did you perform through the complete OODA loop that started in February? How much better would you have done with the Similar Set Signal fractal math instructing you on your screen?

VIX

This is the first bearish TRADE TREND signal since February 23 — these dates matter.

What did you do after February 23?

What are you doing today?

Remember last Wednesday when the VIX first closed below its TREND and I moved to “wait and watch” mode. Today I’ve closed all my shorts. Without the Similar Set Signal’s math, there would have been a zero percent chance I would have executed this precisely.

MOVE

The MOVE index has closed below its TREND, with the low end of the RANGE also dropping.

HYG

HYG has broken back into a bullish TREND. Volatility and credit markets are now both saying risk is back on.

IWM

Did you get out on time?

Did you short the first signals?

Did you catch the math weakening in the VIX on the fractal signal with the big X?

The Russell is now back in a bullish TREND. That doesn’t mean chase the move, but it does mean you should be out of any remaining US equity shorts. Those positions should already be small after taking profits and skipping late entries.

QQQ

Nasdaq looks almost identical from a fractal perspective. Don’t chase the top end of the RANGE, but be ready to start buying. Big tech has historically performed well in Quad 3. I expect QQQ to be stronger than SPY and IWM going forward — we’ll let the math confirm it.

Sector Signals

Here’s how the sectors are shaping up:

XLE (Energy)

Energy is showing a “reduce” signal. You should already have a big core position — the math says trim some here and wait for a bounce to sell more aggressively at the top end of the RANGE. No new adds here.

XLU (Utilities)

XLU’s RANGE is now crossing above its TREND decisively. With the MOVE index settling, XLU could see more upside, but the process stays the same: sell some at the top end of the RANGE.

XLF (Financials)

If you took the shorts yesterday, reduce them. I personally stayed out yesterday, but the math had merit so it wasn't a bad decision, but now the math is clearly saying reduce so if you don't that is a bad decision.

Even though many sectors remain in bearish TREND, the VIX, MOVE, HYG, and major indices are telling me to get out completely. Several sectors are also breaking out today. A quick look:

Semiconductors (SMH)

Technology (XLK)

Communication (XLC)

Real Estate (XLRE)

Materials (XLB)

Industrials (XLI)

Macro Markets

USO (Oil)

A ceasefire doesn’t make inflation disappear, but we’ve seen blow-off tops in commodities before (Silver in February). I doubt USO makes a new high, but it will likely grind back toward the top end of the RANGE. I wouldn’t add aggressively here — I’d wait for an opportunity to sell more of the core position from these levels (currently 78% lower).

TLT (Long-Term Treasuries)

Inflation doesn’t vanish overnight, but take a look at the chart: Did you get out on time (red arrow on March 10th)? Did you sell some yesterday at the low end of the RANGE?

TLT remains in a bearish TRADE TREND, so the expectation is still lower. Start following the math — it’s been very accurate.

DXY

Thursday, April 2, 2026

Last week, DXY and VIX were both signaling “wait and watch.” I wrote about it and stayed disciplined by not entering new positions in those asset classes. It paid off. I didn’t do anything different from any other day — I simply read the math objectively.

A double failure of TRADE is a key fractal signal. TREND is now well below the RANGE and should hold, but the immediate direction is lower.

This is exactly why I avoided new moves. The initial move lower (green arrow signaling “LONG” on March 2nd) is where core FX shorts should have been added, after already taking good profits at the Entry Profit arrow not getting caught in this later move.

GVAL

Wednesday, April 1, 2026

A week ago I noted DXY was weak and stopped taking new global equity shorts. I also reiterated that cash was an excellent position to hold starting April 1st.

HECA

Tuesday April 7th 2026

Still no immunity.

SLV

Silver is a reload short here at the top end of the RANGE while still in a bearish TRADE TREND.

Bitcoin

Tuesday April 7th 2026

The math said Bitcoin was ready to rip. This is the first fractal long signal since January 13th.

Don’t chase it at the top end of the RANGE, and be ready to exit if it breaks TREND again. That said, I’m following the math and starting to incrementally add to crypto.

If you were listening to someone else instead of reading the math for yourself, you were most likely late and frustrated with this market. With the Similar Set Signal, you had all the information in real time and could study it deliberately. The instructions were right there — allowing you to flow through this market perfectly.

That’s the difference the Similar Set Signal makes.

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