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Left Side - Similar Set TREND

Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

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Markets don’t move the same way up as they do down. They break violently with explosive volatility and squeeze hard after reaching extremes. They don’t grind higher with the classic “buy the dip” pattern you see in bull markets, and bear market moves don’t last nearly as long.

If you’ve done your job, you should already be completely out of bearish TREND—cover at the recent lows—and now analyzing the fractal math to decide whether you want to keep pressing the short side.

VIX

This is exactly what I mean by “keep pressing the short button.” As you can see, this is the second attempt to break the TRADE level and it now has the potential to close below the TREND for the second time. This isn’t a guarantee we’ll get clean closes and separations (breaks of the fractal TRADE/TREND durations), but it’s definitely not a place to aggressively short.

Cash is a position—and right now, it’s the best position—especially when you see bearish TRENDs across the board and major indicators like the VIX showing this potential signal change.

HYG

The time to aggressively short credit was February 27 and the first week of March. Now credit is signaling another short setup at the top end of the RANGE. That doesn’t mean you have to take it—it just means you shouldn’t be calling a bottom yet.

MOVE

Bond volatility is still firmly in a bullish TRADE and TREND. But notice again when it was time to start shorting: February 27th.

Can the broad market keep going down? Absolutely. But this isn’t Quad 4, and I’d rather wait and watch the VIX before making any new moves to the short side today.

QQQ

QQQ flipped bearish on February 5, giving you three full weeks to get short before the big drop. Now the question is: Is this a big squeeze setting up another short opportunity, or is this the end of the bear market?

I don’t know—and I don’t have to make that call in US equities. I can see the fractal math in volatility and simply say I want no part of either side. Hence, cash.

IWM

If I were looking to short US equities, I’d probably focus on something like XLF. But the way I would execute it is simple: Wait for the VIX to close back into a bullish TRADE/TREND, then at the close look for a ticker that still shows a clean fractal short setup—like this one—sitting at the RANGE with the TREND still above it.

Sector Signals

XLF

Here’s a full snapshot of XLF. Math told you to buy the damn dip on January 2, get flat on January 20, and get short on January 23. Most recently a short signal that completed on March 23, but on the 23rd the VIX wasn’t making a double failure of TRADE while the fractal signal flashed so not the same setup today even though it's the same fractal signal.

Shorting is still profitable, but it’s not the same as buying the damn dip. That’s just how markets move fundamentally across the board. Get out on bearish TRENDs and short early. Be okay with not squeezing every last drop out of the bear market. Cash is a position.

Remember, these signals blindly follow the math. They don’t know about Quads and they can’t see other tickers like the VIX. It missed February 26 short because it wasn’t a perfect touch of the RANGE, but we were already looking to short that day in the newsletter. Today I’m not pressing it. You can use some discretion with these signals that the rigid code can’t.

XLE

Buy the damn dip in XLE today. Notice that the math never told you to chase. You should have been riding winners and selling some as they hit the RANGE. Now it’s suddenly XLE’s turn to act. Just follow the math daily for clear instructions on what to do.

USO

Oil is not the same as US energy equities. The math said to buy the dip last week. Sell some at the RANGE, round-trip the trade, and now you can put those proceeds into XLE today.

Follow the fractal math.

XLU

Utilities are the only other sector still in a bullish TREND. The math did its job—running to the TREND and holding. The next step is to sell some into the RANGE and wait for the next clear signal.

Macro Markets

HECA

Yesterday:

Today:

The second reduce happened on March 10, meaning you should have been trimming a full position.

Then it instructed you to completely cover on March 30 (Monday).

Now you don’t have to short, but you do have to cover. That’s the rule. You don’t have to take every signal, but you can never go against the signal. If you follow this discipline, you’ll be one of the few consistently profitable market participants because you have a clear mathematical edge in all markets and every ticker.

CORN

Commodities are taking a hit today. Are you seeing this as an opportunity, or are you staring at your P&L and feeling frozen?

WHEAT

This is exactly why you take profits at the RANGE.

CANE

Sugar has more volatility but also more upside—the top end of the RANGE is over 6% away. How many people are loading up on the dip in CANE versus those trying to call the top or bottom in US equities based on headlines and narratives? When you can see the math clearly, the right action becomes obvious. You just need to practice the discipline to follow it in real time.

TLT

Bearish TRADE and TREND. The Similar Set Signal got you out on time and isn’t showing any signs of turning around.

DXY

The dollar is also making a significant counter-trend move, just like the VIX, with its second failure of TRADE. This is the first time I’ve mentioned being bearish on DXY since February 26.

​Thursday, February 26, 2026​

Here’s the bullish timestamp in real time.

This doesn’t mean a bearish TREND yet—it means the immediate-term direction is down with a lot of room to run. A flip back to bullish TRADE would completely negate this. But notice how different this is from the last four weeks of newsletters. I’m reading the math in real time, and today is significant.

Euro

Look at how the Similar Set Signal math performs. It told you to get short on February 26, reload on March 19, cover on March 30, and now as price reaches the top end of the RANGE, I will not be adding to the short because the DXY is in a counter-TREND.

GVAL

The DXY also heavily affects global equities. Notice how the Similar Set Signal got you in on time and out on time. It isn’t flashing a reload signal now because the price isn’t below the initial short position (per the rules: first rallies should be continuation setups—if it’s at the same price, something is off). So I’m not aggressively shorting global equities today either.

SLV

Big bounce in metals. How have you done in metals since the blow-off top in January? The Similar Set Signal just covered its short from February before this rally and will print another short signal if we reach the top end of the RANGE.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is trying to break back to bullish TRADE, which would then force a move to test the top end of the RANGE and finally the TREND—which it hasn’t touched since January 23. No break yet. It’s sitting at a decision area around 68,500 at the TRADE level.

Can you start to see the machine running—with the ability to actually see the math in real time, not just listen to someone else describe it?

The Similar Set Signal is the only product on the market that lets you see the math and own it forever. You’ve seen it work across all markets and every ticker. Why not get it on your screen today before the next wave of signals comes in?

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