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Tuesday, May 19, 2026
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This straight-up market is giving a lot of people trouble. First they missed the shift on April 8th, then chased the same things which went straight back down. Those names are now sitting at the low end of the RANGE, and many are throwing in the towel right when they should be loading up again.
VIX
This is not what the VIX looked like when the war started. The problem is most missed April 8th and are taking profits at the top end of the RANGEs.
MOVE
BIG move in the MOVE over the last two days, but where is it running to? Right back to the Similar Set TREND. It still has work to do before flipping back to bullish TREND.
HYG
Credit lost its bullish TREND, but that’s only one signal and it’s sitting at the low end of the RANGE. We’ll see what kind of bounce happens from here. If you still have any HYG, you should already be OUT.
QQQ
Everybody wants the dip until it actually happens. That’s the common theme today.
IWM
Small caps are oversold.
MAGS
Buy at the low end of the RANGE, sell some at the top. This is why markets don’t go up in a straight line, and when they do, they eventually come back down in a straight line. Just follow the fractal math instructions daily and don’t worry about tomorrow.
Sector Signals
XLY
Can you handle a 3% drawdown? If you can’t, you need to reduce your size. Buy at the low end of the RANGE was the play. Now wait for it to either break TREND (exit) or reach the top end of the RANGE (sell some). That’s it. That’s all there is. Make sure these positions are spread across different assets.
TSLA
Tesla is up over 2.5% from touching the Similar Set TREND today. It went straight up after the breakdown, then straight back down for you to buy again.
XLI
A lot of room left to the top end of the RANGE. The big difference from mid-March is that all these tickers are now in Bullish TREND. Just follow the math. If that changes, change with it.
SMH
Did you buy the dip in the strongest sector at the low end of the RANGE while the crowd starts to capitulate?
Macro Markets
USO
Oil is overbought while the rest of the market is oversold. Even if the war starts back up, the market might not react the way you think. Luckily I don’t have to guess — I just follow the math.
DXY
The dollar is in the same spot as yesterday. Not technically broken, but this is the third day in a row holding TREND and not rejecting the top end of the RANGE. I’m not bullish or bearish on DXY at the moment.
GVAL
Meanwhile emerging markets are offering low end of the RANGE entries in bullish TRADE/TREND setups. These are the spots to gross up core positions. They won’t work 100% of the time, but these should be 100% of the opportunities you take.
TLT
If you are short bonds, it’s time to cover some after the gap at the low end of the RANGE and the third straight day sitting there.
GLD
Gold sucks.
HECA
HECA sucks.
BTC
This is the fourth day in a row Bitcoin has been outside the low end of the RANGE in bullish TREND. That doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it means be a BUYER. As always, be ready to cut the position if it turns bearish TREND.
MSTR
Gap below the low end of the RANGE, right above TREND. This is a timestamp buy I’ll be going over again and again weeks from now — or it breaks TREND and we cut the position quickly. These are the spots with 10% risk to know you’re wrong, but 170% upside if you’re right.
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
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Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Crash calls require signal, not narrative. The key is identifying emergent properties across similar sets, fractal dimensions, and multiple durations." — Keith McCullough If you are freaking out...