Tuesday, March 3, 2026


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How to Read Chart

Left Side - Similar Set TREND

Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile.

New Similar Set Handbook

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More questions?

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If you're panicking or losing money right now, take a step back and reflect on last week. Ask yourself these three key questions:

  1. What did I do when the VIX flashed a bullish TRADE/TREND signal?
  2. Did I add shorts (or hedges) at that time?
  3. Was my portfolio equally weighted across macro asset classes (FX, bonds, US equities, global equities, etc.)?

The signal was clear—and all the posts explaining it are still right here: https://similarset.kit.com/posts

VIX

Last Wednesday, the VIX flipped to a bullish TRADE/TREND with price sitting at the bottom of the RANGE.

What action did you take?

The VIX has since risen 57% from that precise fractal math point.

These were the openers from last week's newsletters—the math was unmistakable:

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Friday, February 27, 2026

IWM

Monday, February 23rd, 2026

Back on Monday, February 23, 2026, the signals laid out the plan: if TRADE breaks, expect a pull to TREND. That's exactly what played out.

TREND made a big jump 10 days ago, and IWM bounced right from that level yesterday—then overran it today. It hasn't flipped to bearish TRADE/TREND yet.

For more on why TRADE and TREND aren't simple moving averages and why they can jump like this, read the article here:

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QQQ

Tech was an obvious short when the VIX flipped 4 days ago. Again—what did you do? That's all that matters.

Sector Signals

XLP

Key question: Did you follow the process and sell some every time the math signaled it? If so, you can buy the dip here.

Bullish TRADE TREND at RANGE.

XLI

Process. Process. Process.

XLE

Process applies where it pulls back or keeps going.

That's why you sell some not all.

Find what sizing fits you, but the core idea is: get positioned when TREND flips, then risk-manage the RANGE through that TREND.

XOP

Another position that should be performing well right now. If you're not making money, reread the old posts and reflect.

The biggest question: Did you have access to the math to execute(Similar Set Signal) —THEN you can ask did you actually execute it?

XLF

The math showed to short XLF or XLY (not IWM) was the calculated move and it was expressed explicitly for weeks leading up to this volatilty burst in the market.

Bearish TRADE/TREND with price at RANGE.

XLY

Signal dated February 19th. Today is March 3rd.

KOSPI

Global equities are taking the biggest hit, but they've also been in the biggest bubble.

That's how it works.

But the math is dynamic: last signal told you to get in 27% lower, then said sell some, now it isn't signaling re-entry yet.

GVAL

Could some of your tickers look similar to this? Yes—but very important to check to see if you followed the process.

  1. Did you sell some at the top of the RANGE before the sell-off?
  2. Did you reduce on break of TRADE?
  3. Were you printing money on global equities for a month prior or only looking at this one signal?
  4. Are you risk-managing with equal weighting across positions and asset classes?

These moments expose whether you're truly diversified and whether you are actually following the process.

You should be see pullbacks in global equities—but what about energy, FX, and US equities sector long/shorts?

USO

Oil up 23% in a few weeks. The math told you to pull the trigger before the escalation.

TLT

Surprisingly, long bonds are underperforming, but the math now flags this as a buying opportunity.

DXY

Euro

Were you ready to short? The math was clear.

GLD

Did you buy the dip in gold today?

Bullish TRADE/TREND at RANGE.

You don't need to stare at screens—with access to the math, just set sell orders at the top of the RANGE and buy orders at the bottom. Make sure you're in the right fractal structure first.

IBIT

Markets don't care what you think an asset "should" do—only what it is doing. Bitcoin is still holding counter-TREND, so the math says it should get pulled toward TREND around 79K (~15% higher).

These signals don’t come out of nowhere. The process, the math, and the structure stay consistent—when you follow them, they help you navigate volatile periods like this one with clarity instead of guesswork.

Just look at the last few weeks alone: the Similar Set Signal should have more than covered the cost of a lifetime subscription.

Think about it: avoiding a $1,500 drawdown here, capturing a $1,500 position gain you might not have taken otherwise—all within under 30 days. That’s real money protected and made in a very short window.

Now picture the compounded benefit over years as you get more comfortable with the math and the signals keep working for you.

Stop putting it off —subscribe to Similar Set Signal today so your ready for the market's next move.

90-DAY MONEY BACK GUARANTEE

What are customers saying about the Similar Set Signal?

Your Signal is already paying off nicely

This is exactly what all Hedgeye subs are missing

What a game changer

Accelerated my understanding of the process like you can’t believe

This is the tool I needed!

For the first time since becoming a Hedgeye sub

My win percentage has gone roof"

If you have any questions, reply to this email and I'll get back to you!

Similar Set Signal

No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.

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