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If you're panicking or losing money right now, take a step back and reflect on last week. Ask yourself these three key questions:
The signal was clear—and all the posts explaining it are still right here: https://similarset.kit.com/posts
Last Wednesday, the VIX flipped to a bullish TRADE/TREND with price sitting at the bottom of the RANGE.
What action did you take?
The VIX has since risen 57% from that precise fractal math point.
These were the openers from last week's newsletters—the math was unmistakable:
Monday, February 23rd, 2026
Back on Monday, February 23, 2026, the signals laid out the plan: if TRADE breaks, expect a pull to TREND. That's exactly what played out.
TREND made a big jump 10 days ago, and IWM bounced right from that level yesterday—then overran it today. It hasn't flipped to bearish TRADE/TREND yet.
For more on why TRADE and TREND aren't simple moving averages and why they can jump like this, read the article here:
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Tech was an obvious short when the VIX flipped 4 days ago. Again—what did you do? That's all that matters.
Key question: Did you follow the process and sell some every time the math signaled it? If so, you can buy the dip here.
Bullish TRADE TREND at RANGE.
Process. Process. Process.
Process applies where it pulls back or keeps going.
That's why you sell some not all.
Find what sizing fits you, but the core idea is: get positioned when TREND flips, then risk-manage the RANGE through that TREND.
Another position that should be performing well right now. If you're not making money, reread the old posts and reflect.
The biggest question: Did you have access to the math to execute(Similar Set Signal) —THEN you can ask did you actually execute it?
The math showed to short XLF or XLY (not IWM) was the calculated move and it was expressed explicitly for weeks leading up to this volatilty burst in the market.
Bearish TRADE/TREND with price at RANGE.
Signal dated February 19th. Today is March 3rd.
Global equities are taking the biggest hit, but they've also been in the biggest bubble.
That's how it works.
But the math is dynamic: last signal told you to get in 27% lower, then said sell some, now it isn't signaling re-entry yet.
Could some of your tickers look similar to this? Yes—but very important to check to see if you followed the process.
These moments expose whether you're truly diversified and whether you are actually following the process.
You should be see pullbacks in global equities—but what about energy, FX, and US equities sector long/shorts?
Oil up 23% in a few weeks. The math told you to pull the trigger before the escalation.
Surprisingly, long bonds are underperforming, but the math now flags this as a buying opportunity.
Were you ready to short? The math was clear.
Did you buy the dip in gold today?
Bullish TRADE/TREND at RANGE.
You don't need to stare at screens—with access to the math, just set sell orders at the top of the RANGE and buy orders at the bottom. Make sure you're in the right fractal structure first.
Markets don't care what you think an asset "should" do—only what it is doing. Bitcoin is still holding counter-TREND, so the math says it should get pulled toward TREND around 79K (~15% higher).
These signals don’t come out of nowhere. The process, the math, and the structure stay consistent—when you follow them, they help you navigate volatile periods like this one with clarity instead of guesswork.
Just look at the last few weeks alone: the Similar Set Signal should have more than covered the cost of a lifetime subscription.
Think about it: avoiding a $1,500 drawdown here, capturing a $1,500 position gain you might not have taken otherwise—all within under 30 days. That’s real money protected and made in a very short window.
Now picture the compounded benefit over years as you get more comfortable with the math and the signals keep working for you.
Stop putting it off —subscribe to Similar Set Signal today so your ready for the market's next move.
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No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Crash calls require signal, not narrative. The key is identifying emergent properties across similar sets, fractal dimensions, and multiple durations." — Keith McCullough If you are freaking out...