No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Tuesday, March 17, 2026
|
Welcome back Reader!
|
Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile.
New Similar Set Handbook
Confused about what's going on in the newsletter?
| Use Handbook |
More questions?
Drop them on X: @Similar_set
Markets move incredibly fast. Trying to keep up with every headline and narrative means you complete miss the repeatable patterns entirely — jumping from one thesis to the next without ever finding solid ground.
The math behind the Similar Set Signal is narrative-agnostic. It never changes; it simply repeats the same fractal cycle in an infinite loop. Yet that same math sees everything at once — all the narratives you notice and the ones you miss — and delivers clear, objective, quantitative outputs: TRADE, TREND, and RANGE you just have to be able to see the Signal.
VIX
"bearish TRADE"
Yesterday: the VIX broke bearish TRADE for the first time since February 12. That's exactly the kind of shift you want to notice in real time.
Today the math delivered no surprises: VIX continued lower. We now have a close below TREND. The next step is a volatility-adjusted BREAK of TREND (11.3% currently), or simply stacking more closes below TREND — which looks likely today.
Look back to November: the first close below TREND marked the end of that volatility storm. March could turn out to be a similarly significant turning point for markets.You'll never know which days are truly important until after the fact. That's why discipline matters — acting consistently, day in and day out, on the Signal as it unfolds.
QQQ
While the VIX setup looks favorable for risk-on, the indices aren't confirming the same message yet — and that's an important observation. All the details matter.
Right now VIX sits in the middle of its RANGE and hasn't confirmed bearish TREND so just because it's changing doesn't mean it's confirmed, while QQQ is firmly in bearish TRADE and TREND, with RANGE still above TREND. That combination is a clear risk-off signal for QQQs still.
Keep watching and reading the Signal as it develops.
Sector Signals
The major U.S. indices may not be flashing clear fractal signals yet, but that doesn't mean U.S. sectors are saying the same thing.
XLE
Bullish TRADE TREND, both well below RANGE, meaning should've sold some on Mach 10th while holding a core position established way back in January near the bottom left with a limit order waiting to buy the dip at 55.95 currently.
XLU
If you followed the math on March 10th, you unlocked the next fractal move: sell some at the top end of RANGE. Now put an order waiting above RANGE (it will be bullish TRADE and TREND if it gets there).
XLB
With VIX breaking down, sectors sitting at TREND are the first place to look for dip-buying opportunities. From there, drill down to the strongest individual stocks within the sector.
XLP
Already held TREND. We were buying and selling — making money — the whole way up. The signal never said exit, it said reduce.
XLRE
XLRE spiked 2% below RANGE down to bullish TRADE and TREND. The math reveals these opportunities in real time.
ITB
The Similar Set Signal gets you out.
Real Estate is different from construction.
The Signal shows you the difference.
Macro Markets
DXY
The Similar Set Signal has nailed this move in the dollar. Two days ago peaked at the top end of the RANGE and now is pulling back in bullish TRADE and TREND.
Notice TRADE is in the middle of the RANGE so an arrow won't print — but that doesn't mean continuation isn't expected. Stay positioned from the stronger entry. If TRADE breaks lower, have a limit order ready to buy the dip at TREND around 98.
Know your next moves before they happen.
USO
Same setup as yesterday: bullish TRADE and TREND, with a limit order waiting above RANGE at 104.4.
TLT
Did you get out on time? Hoping for a bounce or convincing yourself with a narrative to justify holding bearish TRADE and TREND isn't a long-term winning strategy.
SOYB
Soybeans were on sale yesterday. The Similar Set Signal doesn't care about the ticker's story — it only models the math into objective outputs. Bullish TRADE and TREND at RANGE = buy. Remember to diversify beyond U.S. stocks: FX, commodities, metals, global equities, crypto.
GLD
Gold's holding should be in from lowering but be ready to cut if it breaks TREND.
HECA
Close to selling some after a 2.5% bounce from TREND.
Bitcoin
Break TRADE —> pull to TREND.
TRADE gives immediate-term direction. TREND gives you the edge.
Bitcoin signaled a potential bottom by printing Counter TREND (second break of TRADE) on February 25 — the same day VIX flipped bullish TREND and this U.S. equity "bear market" leg began. Who would have guessed that was Bitcoin's low?
The Similar Set Signal.
Here's a quick 3-minute video recap where I explain the fractal math.
|
MSTR
This ticker has been beaten down hard — graves have been stomped on. I pay close attention when names like this flip bullish TRADE and TREND. It still needs more separation from TREND to fully confirm, but another close above TREND looks likely.
The fractal patterns are always forming. The Signal is always there — clear, objective, and repeatable. Want to see these signals in real time? Subscribe to Similar Set Signal today.
90-DAY MONEY BACK GUARANTEE
3-month interest-free payment plan.
| TRY TODAY |
What are customers saying about the Similar Set Signal?
Your Signal is already paying off nicely
This is exactly what all Hedgeye subs are missing
What a game changer
Accelerated my understanding of the process like you can’t believe
This is the tool I needed!
For the first time since becoming a Hedgeye sub
My win percentage has gone roof"
If you have any questions, reply to this email and I'll get back to you!
Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Crash calls require signal, not narrative. The key is identifying emergent properties across similar sets, fractal dimensions, and multiple durations." — Keith McCullough If you are freaking out...