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1. 10's & 2's

Yields down = deflation, which equals Quad 4.

The bond market is picking up on Quad 4 data, which we’ll see in this week’s GDP, Jobs Report, and earnings from companies like Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon.

10-Year Treasury

Go back and look at what happened to the stock market on these key dates.

The bond market is the dog, the stock market is the tail.

Not the other way around.

Yesterday, the 10-Year failed to break above its TREND level and could now accelerate downward. When TRADE or TREND levels break, it often sparks momentum, like we saw with Bitcoin last week.

2-Year Treasury

The Fed Front Runner never turned bullish and the top end of it's range just crossed inside of TREND.

Much strong signal than 10 YR.

2. OIL

Oil has been signaling Quad 4 since January, unaffected by the FOMO rallies in U.S. equities.

Another way to short energy demand in Quad 4 is through Natural Gas.

3. VIX

Last week, we predicted the VIX collapse, now expect a bounce soon.

The question is will it stay bearish TREND in the 30s?

"And those are you're top 3 things" - Mucker TRY MACRO SHOW 3 MONTHS FOR $3

SPX

Keith is pushing “Make Puts Great Again” today, but my process hasn’t changed. I laid it out yesterday, but here’s a quick recap: SPX closed bullish last Thursday, followed by three days of bullish squeezes, pushing the top end of the range higher. This kept me from getting rolled on the past three days.

This doesn’t mean I’m bullish.

It means I’m waiting for a -1% drop and a break below bearish TREND.

I don’t call tops.

Yes, it’s Quad 4, and I expect Quad 4 earnings and data, but signals matter more than Quads or even Keith’s calls. Read why here:

​Why I Trust the Signal Over Everything Else​

So, what’s the move?

Go to where the Signal has absolute clarity:

Rates, Gold, Global Equities, Global Currencies

These aren’t new—we’ve been pounding the table on them for weeks. Check the receipts: https://similarset.kit.com/posts.

Rates

Gold

Gold Miners

Global Equities

Global Currencies

Swiss Franc

None of these look anything like US Equities.

Once I internalized I didn't need to participate with the crowd trying to short the Bag 7’s into earnings or call a top in the Nasdaq because a weak job report on Friday. I was able to move capital to where there’s absolutely clarity.

Spreading bets across sectors isn't diversification—it's dilution.

The alpha’s in allocating to the market’s best signals, and Similar Set Signal hands them to you. Without it, you’re guessing, bleeding edge, and missing moves.

Thank you for reading Reader,

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