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Viewing the market as one fractal regime has allowed us to identify when markets turned risk-on. On April 8th, VIX, MOVE, HYG, and QQQ signals all flipped bullish. Nothing has changed since then — we’re simply at much higher prices now.

VIX

VIX remains in a bearish TRADE TREND and sits at the top end of its RANGE. Adding incrementally to the strongest signals in the best fractal spots is a personal decision, but the math supports it. Last Thursday’s spike to 22 offered one of the clearest opportunities.

​Thursday, April 23, 2026​

MOVE

Bond volatility is in a firm bearish TREND. It is not concerned about any Fed Chair transition or geopolitical risks.

HYG

Strong bullish TRENDs at the bottom of the RANGE are not a time to get bearish — they are a time to add.

QQQ

You don’t always catch the exact low end of the RANGE during transitions. The best approach is to incrementally add (not full positions) at strategic levels — such as VIX at the top end of its RANGE.

META

QQQ wasn’t the only ticker worth buying when VIX hit 22. We reviewed several names on April 23rd, but you should have the math on your own screen. This lets you scan hundreds of tickers and add incrementally whenever the system signals.

COIN

Sometimes incremental adds continue to dip — that’s why position sizes should stay smaller than at clear fractal signals, allowing you to keep adding. Coinbase is now much closer to the low end of its RANGE and well above its TREND. Adding U.S. crypto equities is a way to diversify when VIX is at the top of its RANGE.

Sector Signals

XLC

XLC is in a bullish TRADE TREND with VIX at the top end of its RANGE.

XLY

The picture is the same for XLY. Are you buying when the math says to, or are you still recovering from missing the short exit on April 1st and the incremental adds that started April 8th? The market and the math don’t care — every day is new. Start executing.

XLF

XLF reached a clear fractal signal spot. That was the time to go a bit bigger. I simply follow the math.

XLI

XLI is struggling to lift off, which gives you another chance to add before it does. I was already adding incrementally two weeks ago and am adding more today.

Macro Markets

USO

I’m keeping a minimum position size in Oil. The bullish TRADE TREND means I can buy more at the low end of the RANGE. If you’re tilted because you sold and it ran higher, remember there are many new tickers you can add to that haven’t already risen 80% in a few months. Stay patient, trust the fractal math, and focus on execution.

DXY

DXY is in a bullish TRADE TREND but is at the top end of its RANGE, with the TREND sitting in the center. It’s not a strong signal yet, so I’m watching and waiting. Don’t forget correlations can shift — in the last Quad 2, crypto and stocks rose alongside the dollar. Look at the collective picture, not just one signal.

GVAL

If you haven’t diversified into global equities yet, today’s price is even better than the original fractal signal. Until it breaks TRADE (the reduce signal), it remains a good zone to keep loading up. Patience, math, execution.

TLT

Things decline in a bearish TRADE TREND, but they also become oversold. I expect a bounce off the low end of the RANGE in bonds (meaning some pullback in rates).

GLD

I have had zero capital in Gold for a while. I didn’t want the short and preferred adding to tickers that signaled long in a risk-on environment. Gold was not one of them. It was rejected at the top end of its RANGE in a bearish TRADE and TREND.

BTC

I was adding at TRADE yesterday as this is still a new bullish TREND began on April 6th. Until it breaks TREND around $68K, I remain bullish. Crypto is volatile — if it breaks TRADE (not just overrunning), expect it to test TREND near $71K. Be ready to buy there too. Knowing your next move in advance gives you the conviction to execute consistently.

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