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Thursday, March 5, 2026
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All your attention should be on the process — not on what you could have done differently, or what might happen weeks from now. Focus purely on conditional probabilities: "If X happens, then I do Y."
Examples:
- If TRADE breaks → reduce position.
- If TREND breaks → exit.
- If price reaches the low end of RANGE in a bullish TRADE + TREND → buy.
None of these depend on your current PnL or trying to predict the future. They are simply objective, math-based conditional decisions.
VIX
The VIX made its lows right at the Similar Set TREND level.
Another potential storm was on the table as we reviewed yesterday — and you're seeing it play out today. No surprise if you're watching the math in real time.
MOVE
Bond volatility pulled back from the top of its RANGE, but TREND remains near the low end. Once again, the math indicates the storm isn't over yet.
HYG
Equity and bond volatility look bullish, while credit is bearish — a clear risk-off backdrop. Don't chase bottoms until the math resolves itself.
QQQ
Nasdaq is rejecting TREND, and the top of the RANGE is now crossing below TREND. This is not an "it's over" signal.
SPY
S&P is now in bearish TRADE and TREND, with RANGE shifting so TREND sits in the middle. If this continues, TREND could relocate to the top of the RANGE — which is a significant development.
The last time SPY's TREND was near the top of the RANGE was March 2025. Full access to the math gives you much deeper context. Something that hasn't happened in 12 month is important to notice.
Sector Signals
The equity backdrop is turning, and sectors are starting to break down. The first step in losing fractal momentum is losing TRADE.
XLP (Staples)
Staples are having a drawdown day. But ask yourself honestly: Are you following the process every single time, or did you finally feel "comfortable" enough to execute the last signal — the one that's not working out right now?
Be honest with yourself or you won't ever get better at this.
Right now it's about 2% below the last add signal.
- The signal before that, last week, already should have netted 3.2%
- If TRADE breaks reduce what you most recently added
- You should have a core position from 10% lower
I'm just reading and executing what the math instructed in real time. Whether you did the same is what you need to reflect on.
XLI (Industrials)
Same fractal setup here.
If TRADE breaks → reduce.
Key word: if. Look for closes and clear separation below TRADE to confirm a break.
If you can't handle a day like today, reduce your sizing. The math is simply saying we're oversold and overrunning bullish TRADE. Don't panic — stay focused on conditional positioning.
Remember: If TRADE breaks, the next setup is often to buy at TREND (exactly what played out in KOSPI, up 10% today).
XLU (Utilities)
Utilities are still up from yesterday's signal. If you missed it, have orders ready or start adding here. This is the sector to buy today if you're light or flat.
XOP (Energy)
You should already be in energy. If you trimmed some, let the rest of this winner run and be ready to buy the dip around 149.50 and rising (green line). Conditional positioning.
XLF (Financials)
Still holding hedges? The conditional process says sell some (not all) at the low end of RANGE — and sell more if it gets back down there.
When VIX flipped to bullish TREND, did you put hedges on?
XLY (Consumer Discretionary)
Bearish TRADE + TREND at RANGE.
Did you sell some 3% outside the RANGE two days ago? Did you reload today?
The math provides the instructions — your job is to follow them relentlessly.
Macro Markets
KOSPI
"Fractal buy at TREND"
Conditional process: 1st break of TRADE → buy at TREND.
The math gave the instructions in real time — but executing them without real-time visibility is impossible.
GLD
Fractal math repeats itself. Does this sequence look familiar? It's the same pattern we just saw in KOSPI: first break of TRADE → buy at TREND.
Now we're seeing another repeating setup we highlight daily (Pullback): bullish TRADE + TREND at the low end of RANGE.
Follow fractal math across diversified macro assets — even in chaotic wartime regimes — and you'll do just fine.
USO
Energy and FX did a lot of the heavy lifting in portfolios today. Did I predict exactly what would perform? No. But I executed from fractal strength levels, let the math play out, and continued following the conditional process daily.
DXY
Remember a few weeks ago when we were buying every damn dip in good ole Aussie?
Then the signal flipped: short FX because DXY turned bullish TREND.
Conditional execution said short Euro.
Euro
Weakest signal gets shorted. Healthy reminder: equal-weight positions. Just a 2% move in Euro paid for lifetime access to the fractal math instructions.
TLT
TLT remains in a conditional buy area. If TREND breaks, exit fully. It's that simple.
Bitcoin
Nowhere in the process does it say to chase price at the top of RANGE. Bitcoin is pulling back today (as expected), but unless TRADE breaks at 68,300, expect a push toward TREND around 79K. Conditional expectation — the real opportunity was back at counter-TREND last Wednesday (see video recap).
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Instead of fixating on PnL, "what ifs," or feelings disguised as market research, it's far simpler to let the math calculate the flows while you devote 100% of your attention to executing the conditional process. The only way to do that effectively is to see 100% of the math in real time.
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
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