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Thursday, March 19, 2026
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That's exactly what Similar Set Signals has been telling you—without needing to hearing it a day late from anyone else.
VIX
Markets didn't like Powell's speech. We bounced off the low end of the RANGE and landed squarely back in the bullish TRADE TREND.
It never fully separated below TREND, so watch closes closely—things can shift rapidly when TREND sits in the middle of the RANGE.
SPY
VIX was the laggard. Don't hope, don't try to call turns. Wait for the math to give the green light before you make any moves. This was firmly bearish TRADE TREND here.
Sector Signals
XLE
Broad U.S. indices are getting hammered, but that's not where your money should be in U.S. equities right now.
XLU
Utilities got close. Remember, these are fractal areas. Are you going to wait for the exact touch of the RANGE, or was something like this close enough to start moving incrementally? That's a personal decision—no one can answer it for you. And whatever the answer is do it consistently.
XLP
Sectors across the board are breaking down, which is what happens when all the major indices are in bearish TRADE and TREND.
Stick to the process:
- TRADE breaks → REDUCE
- TREND breaks → EXIT
Macro Markets
At this point, if you've been following the Similar Set Signal, your U.S. equity exposure and overall macro exposure should be significantly reduced—ideally approaching minimal levels.Here's the clear picture right now:
- U.S. Equities: Bearish TREND
- Global Equities: Bearish TREND
- TLT: Bearish TREND
- Gold: Bearish TREND
- Crypto: Never reached bullish TREND
The only areas still holding up are Oil and FX. None of this snuck up on you. These shifts came through daily, incremental signals—clear instructions that guided you step by step to this moment. If you followed the process, you should now be sitting on plenty of cash, with minimal stress and no major drawdowns weighing you down.
GLD
Did you follow the signal yesterday? You should have significantly reduced exposure—if not cut it entirely—at the close.
SLV
Hopefully you're not still exposed to silver. Similar Set Signals got me out of silver on February 2, and I've been reiterating ever since: the math said stay away.
TLT
Did you exit TLT on time? Similar Set Signals protect you from major drawdowns (and bag-holding) while setting up clean weekly layups. Yes, it also identifies core positions—but anyone can buy and hold. The real edge comes from knowing when to reduce, exit, or add on time. That's what separates you from other money managers.
DXY
Dollar holding Similar Set TRADE. Expect more pushes up until it breaks.
Euro
Close to a fractal signal in bearish TRADE/TREND. Go back and review how you handled the last two signals. FX should be smoothing volatility returns in a truly diversified portfolio right now.
USO
Same story with oil. You can't go back and change past decisions, but you can ask yourself: Why wasn't I in the right tickers? Use that to adjust for next time.
NORW
Similar Set Signals let you see the fractal math clearly. If Keith asked (without already knowing), "Which global equities ETF am I long?" you could scan the group and immediately spot it—NORW stands out like a sore thumb. Almost everything else is bearish TREND.
EEM
The signal gets you out. Getting out is often just as important as (if not more important than) getting in.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is getting slammed. It was still in bearish TREND, so there was nothing to do but observe. How many people are getting crushed right now because they couldn't see it wasn't time to get aggressive until a TREND reclaim at 78K?
The math removes FOMO, other people's opinions, theses, and hot calls. It gives you a clear framework: exactly where each ticker sits in its fractal structure, with precise instructions on what to do.
None of them were flashing green here.
Now Bitcoin is attempting to break TRADE. Its volatility-adjusted threshold sits 4% below TRADE at roughly 68K—that's when this counter-trend move officially ends, with the expectation of new lows until proven otherwise (i.e., bullish TRADE is reclaimed).
Know your next moves before they happen.
Start seeing what Keith sees—before he even tells you. Subscribe to Similar Set Signals today and get the math working for you in real time. Don't miss the next market move.
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Crash calls require signal, not narrative. The key is identifying emergent properties across similar sets, fractal dimensions, and multiple durations." — Keith McCullough If you are freaking out...