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How to Read Chart

Left Side - Similar Set TREND

Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

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If you just go blown up, I've got a clear solution for you: the Similar Set Signal.

Nothing in the market should have caught you off guard. The math gave clear timestamps for when and where to act. Here’s a recap of the market crash OODA Loop:

VIX

​Wednesday, February 25, 2026​

The beauty of fractal math is that it moves dynamically with price.

After a spike like this, a break back below the Similar Set TREND usually marks the end of the blow-up.

Right now that level sits at 24.34. Just two weeks ago the key level was 18.5—today it’s 24.34. You won’t get that kind of responsive adaptation from a simple Gaussian moving average. Only fractal dimensions deliver this.

MOVE

A week later the signals said the storm wasn’t over.

Today we hit 34 on VIX—exactly as the math anticipated.

HYG

Risk-off has been the backdrop since February 25. What did you do as the signals developed in real time?

Getting free information in a newsletter is helpful, but it’s not enough. You need the math live on your screen to build real confidence—so you can pull the trigger before the move happens. This newsletter proves the math works. Now we also have hard backtest data on every Fractal Signal showing the exact edge for each ticker.

QQQ

Here’s every Fractal Signal since 2000 on QQQ's —25 years of data.

Micro Nasdaq futures

Same powerful stats, even though micros only started in 2021 (so just the last 4 years). A 25-year period and a 4-year period show nearly identical results. It’s not an outlier—it works across all timeframes. With futures, we can apply real unit sizing and contract values to calculate actual net profit (using a $1,000 unit size here).

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PF = Profit Factor = total size of winners ÷ total size of losers.
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Example: winners +13%, losers –10% → PF = 1.3

You can now see this on any ticker that ticks—the data updates automatically and rolls forward. In the Fractal Signals upgrade I'll be pushing soon, you can customize the look back window: YTD, 1YR, 3YR, 5YR, or All-Time and get these tables on everything.

SPY

Start putting these signals to work. This single signal has already paid for a lifetime edge in the market.

Honestly, I’m starting to think $3K for lifetime access is too cheap—might need to raise it to $5K soon. The numbers don’t lie. It pays for itself.

Sector Signals

We now know—without doubt—that the signals work. But you still have to execute them.

XOP

What did you do on the last two green arrow days? Note the most recent green arrow marked the low end of the range—just two days before war broke out.

USO

Own US equities and actual assets— they're different.

Sell some more today on this 3-day consecutive pump outside the range (Exhaust signal rules).

XLF

After reviewing the data, shorting isn’t where most money is made in risk management.

Simply getting out of the market is often enough for US equities.

But there are clear spots to hedge—and we flagged the exact day and price in this OODA Loop.

XLY

I rarely talk about shorting (maybe 10% of the time), but this was one of those moments—and the signal nailed it.

XLU

Utilities were the only sector sitting at the low end of the range in a bullish TRADE TREND. When you can see the math clearly, the plays stick out like a sore thumb.

No panic in XLU today.

XLP

Staples have a blind Pullback win rate of 77%, but layering context (VIX bullish TREND, Quad, etc.) adds even more profitability.

Whether you needed US equity exposure should've determined if you were buying the dip in equities—but this is where the signal said to if you needed some.

Friday's post told you exactly how to manage this.

Friday, March 6, 2026

XLI

​Friday, March 6, 2026​

The backtest already counted this as a loser, but Friday showed it wasn’t your only path—depending on your book.

ITB

The signal gets you out.

You cannot hold bearish TRENDs—these are what kill accounts right now. Not the 3% drawdown in XLP or XLI, but fighting the math.

Bearish TRADE TRENDs usually head down fast. See it. Listen to it. Limit orders just behind TREND automate the discipline in real time (still takes discipline to place them, but far easier than emotional live trading).

Macro Markets

We moved quickly from a global equity bubble to FX dominance, but Similar Set Signal gave day-by-day instructions for the transition. Review what you actually did vs. what the math said. Make sure you have the math in front of you to compare and study.

EEM

Signal got you out +4%. Either you listened or are hoping it turns around. Hope isn’t a strategy.

Practice reducing on TRADE breaks and exiting on TREND breaks. There’s always another ticker with a stronger signal—clear losers off your screen when it says to.

KOSPI

On global equities overall, I took my 10% to the bank and pivoted (similar to when metals volatility blew out—I moved elsewhere and stayed only in Gold).

That’s the pivot I see here until things settle.

GLD

No change—last two “sell some” worked, last two “add some” worked. Fractal math is beautiful.

TLT

Today's Early Look

Sound familiar? Two days ago..

​Thursday, March 5, 2026​

​Friday, March 6, 2026​

Similar Set Signal allows you to see what Keith see's, not exact same levels, but fractal levels with a proven edge and that are damn close. But at this point I rather have mine, I've been studying mine I know how to execute on it better.

DXY

Did you catch the flip? You should have—not just because I wrote about it daily, but because you can have the exact same math.

Remember to equal-weight positions. This one-week move in DXY alone paid for another two lifetime Similar Set Signals.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is getting whipped around but it is showing more signs it doesn’t want to go lower. Currently in overrun of bearish TRADE, so the counter-TREND move is over for now.

IBIT

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, the cash market (excluding overnight and weekend data) tends to be more reliable for these signals.

That said, I couldn’t resist analyzing the charts and spotted a counter-TREND setup on the 24/7 Coinbase ticker—so I’ve been playing that out.

But I hope you can see the bigger picture: even if that turns out to be the Bitcoin bottom, bottom-picking like this isn’t how you build a lasting career in the markets. It’s funny how so many people on X chase these big calls and short setups. That’s not where the real, consistent edge lives over time. The edge is in the fractal signal arrows—following them methodically, day after day.

Keep it simple today.

Pay for the math so the math can pay you.

I can’t think of a good reason not to at least try it for 90 days.

90-DAY MONEY BACK GUARANTEE

What are customers saying about the Similar Set Signal?

Your Signal is already paying off nicely

This is exactly what all Hedgeye subs are missing

What a game changer

Accelerated my understanding of the process like you can’t believe

This is the tool I needed!

For the first time since becoming a Hedgeye sub

My win percentage has gone roof"

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