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How to Read Chart

Left Side - Similar Set TREND

Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

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Process beats emotion because the biggest risk in markets is usually your own impulse to abandon what is working, or trying to tell the market what it will do next.

VIX

If you followed the signal, you were taking profits last week. Right on cue, VIX popped off the low end of the RANGE, but it still cannot get much of a push lower in the indexes.

MOVE

Bond volatility is due for a bounce as well. Cue the scary war headlines—which is exactly what we got. But if you just follow the fractal math, you were already taking some off. The next instruction is to reduce on TRADE break, and that is now where we close.

HYG

Credit went from the top of the RANGE to TREND at the open. It is still a bullish TREND. Nothing to panic about this morning—just keep following the math.

QQQ

Without an objective process, there is no way your emotions would have let you execute this chart. Follow the math, not headlines.

IWM

Small caps have been the only index to give a low-end RANGE pullback. There is still a while to go, so if we do dip, be patient. If we keep ripping, the math told you to be in from much lower with core positioning.

TSLA

Did you take some profits?

NVDA

Did you buy the dip when it appeared?

GOOGL

Are you rotating profits into things still in a dip? The Similar Set Signal gives you crystal-clear daily instruction. All you have to do is execute.

Macro Markets

Oil

Said it last week—the Oil and Dollar signals are changing. I am not allocating capital to highly fluctuating headline assets. US equities and Global Equities cannot even touch the low end of the RANGE until a clear outcome is decided in the war, so I have been avoiding. But the math is clear here: I would not be long Oil in a bearish TRADE/TREND.

DXY

This thing is stuck to TREND like glue. Not long or short DXY, and that is not new.

EEM

Bullish TRADE/TREND at the low end of the RANGE is a sharp edge in markets. Transitions around TREND (like DXY right now) are important for cutting positions and getting into new ones (like QQQ back in April). But they are not as automatic as when the signal is at extreme strength.

Arrows and charts are from the Fractal Signal product. For more info: https://www.notion.so/Fractal-Signals-v2-3221f33e2a93802c87aac59c71a9ed7c

TLT

Break TREND. RANGE pushes below TREND. Bounce still in bearish TRADE/TREND at the top end of the RANGE. The signal works both ways. You can print money if you remove emotion, stick to the strongest math, and execute relentlessly.

GLD

Did you get out of Gold in MARCH?

BTC

Bitcoin has officially broken TREND. That means get out. That does not mean I have to short it. I have never seen VIX, MOVE, and US indexes be this fractally strong while Bitcoin is this different. Does not mean it cannot stay that way, but this is another heavily headline-influenced market and I do not have to pick a side. I have been consolidating my positions to signal clarity and making sure to take profits at the top end of the RANGE because a dip will eventually come in the bubble.

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