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How to Read Chart

Left Side - Similar Set TREND

Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

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The market signal was crystal clear through October 10 — strong and decisive. Then it flipped hard into Quad 4, but that only lasted a few weeks. Now the signal is transitioning again. We’re seeing breaks of TRADE (reduce signals), flips in TREND, and mixed fractal readings. Not every day is a day to make big moves — today isn’t one of them. The key is to move incrementally with the signal as it evolves. Your portfolio will naturally be under-exposed when fractal signals are weak (exactly like right now) and fully exposed when they turn strong and clear.

When I look at all the signals together, I don’t see a clean Quad right now. I see the machine in transition. To which Quad? I don’t know yet — but by the time it’s obvious, I’ll already be positioned correctly simply by following the signal day by day.

Global Macro Long/Short Book

This simple strategy watches just 6 core signals. Right now it only has me in 3 assets:

• Bonds — might get cut if it breaks TREND
• FX — signal is weakening
• Gold — still the strongest position by far

Remember, this isn’t a long-only retirement account. The purpose of this newsletter is to show the 5 fractal opportunities in real time and exactly how I manage them — so you can apply the same process to any ticker on your own.

Nasdaq

Similar Set Signal is bullish on both TRADE and TREND, but we haven’t had a real pullback to enter yet — TREND is still more than 2% lower. With December shaping up as Quad 4, I’m in no rush to chase the top of the RANGE.

VIX

No decision today. I’ll wait for Nasdaq to pull back closer to its TRADE/TREND zone. That’s when the VIX picture will be clear in real time. Right now it remains bearish on both TRADE and TREND.

PINK

Still plenty of tickers giving clean signals, limit order at the end of the RANGE within bullish TRADE/TREND is one of the 5 fractal opportunities.

Quad 4 Indicators (HYG, LQD, MOVE)

HYG

Chopping around credit TREND. Remember: when TREND sits in the middle of the RANGE, the signal is weaker. You want the full RANGE clearly above or below to confirm direction.

LQD

Same story in investment-grade credit. Nasdaq is bullish and credit made a big move today — I’m just waiting and watching for now.

MOVE

No change in bond volatility — still bearish TRADE and TREND.

Bitcoin

Another opportunity worked (reveal bar at RANGE entry), but:

• This move came late compared to the initial TREND flip and the short at the 109k TRADE reclaim (marked with arrows)
• Quad 4 indicators are weakening, I wasn’t aggressive over a holiday weekend
• Down ~7% from potential entry so far.
• Next clean opportunities: reclaim of bearish TRADE (short)

You might have wanted to short Bitcoin — it was a legitimate setup and, in hindsight, skipping it was a mistake. That’s exactly why you need the Similar Set Signal on your own screen instead of waiting for my call or Keith’s.

DXY

Clear fractal weakness: bullish TREND but bearish TRADE after failing above TRADE a second time. This was an obvious reduce signal on the Similar Set Signal.

​Friday, November 28th, 2025​

Expect TREND support to hold until proven otherwise (i.e., until we reclaim bullish TRADE).

YEN

I’ve reduced all FX exposure to just Yen. I expect a counter-trend bounce, but with zero TRADE breaks so far I’m holding through the noise. Exit only on a second TRADE break or a full TREND break.

This is why everyone should run the Similar Set Signal themselves — you get the exact same information I have, make your own rules, and never have to rely on anyone else’s call.

Oil

Bearish TREND, but if bullish TRADE holds it will be the second failure of TRADE in the opposite direction — big higher low forming. Not a strong fractal signal or a clear Quad signal, there's a lot of that going on right now.

ZB (Bonds)

Second TRADE failure = reduce. This isn’t what strong TREND or Quad 4 bonds should do, but none of that matters — what matters is: did you execute?

Full exit if TREND breaks next.

Gold had this exact fractal a few weeks ago and resolved higher by holding TREND with a rising RANGE. The more time you spend with the Similar Set Signal, the more you start thinking in fractals.

BBN (Taxable Muni's)

Not all bond exposure is weak.

Gold

Gold remains one of the very few markets still holding strong fractal momentum. Similar Set Signal got me positioned for it before the move happened.

Feeling lost or unsure what to do?

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