Friday, October 3rd, 2025


Welcome back Reader!

Pro Tip: If you want bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile

How to Read Chart

Left Side - Daily (Similar Set TREND)

Right Side - 4HR (Similar Set TRADE)

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"In September they complained about “seasonality”, now it's “blackouts” – but the signal still has new all-time highs." - Keith McCullough

When will this Raging Bull Market in US Equities stop?

The Similar Set Signal will tell us when, and that’s not today.

Wednesday: Called out Small Caps specifically because the Signal.

Today:

Russell 2000

Reclaims its Similar Set TRADE and surges to new all-time highs. It’s not magic—it’s math.

UFO

Up 25% since reclaiming its Similar Set TRADE within a bullish TREND.

VIX

The Signal works both ways. At all-time highs with VIX in bullish TRADE and ten-day realized volatility at year-to-date lows? Hedge your book. Cover shorts if VIX drops back to bearish TRADE.

XLP

Did you catch the short on September 17th at the top of the range in bearish TRADE and TREND? Look for similar setups to place hedges.

Crypto

USDT.D

Liquidity is flowing, but no bounce off TREND yet. It closed below but hasn’t separated, sitting at the low end of the range with a weekend ahead. I’m not chasing crypto, but the risk is to the upside for crypto tickers.

Separation just means a bar closing with complete space in-between the bar and dots.

Bitcoin

Breaks Similar Set TRADE in bullish TREND = acceleration.

SOL

Sol held TRADE at the close but never separated from TREND (highlighted in white).

COIN

Coinbase is overbought but broke TREND.

Don’t chase charts like these—let them hold TRADE and TREND, and let the Similar Set Signal recalculate. Stick to buying at the low end of ranges and TRADE levels within bullish TRENDs, and you’ll be in the top percentile of market participants.

Commodities

Oil

Firmly in bearish TRADE and TREND, starting to spill into the XLE signal.

XLE

Signal weakening at TRADE and TREND.

The low end of the range is below TREND, suggesting a probable break. A TREND in the middle of the range is weaker—this is a reduce signal, not an add.

Gold

Precious metals are broadening, with Gold signaling new all-time highs.

Palladium

Palladium hit a buy level yesterday; Silver didn’t. The Signal got you into Silver in May and now points to Palladium today.

USD and 2YR

Both are losing signal strength. The 2YR broke TRADE, and DXY is struggling to push away from its TRADE. Gold is picking up on this, gaining signal strength.

2YR

When a ticker breaks TRADE, the range stops climbing. The Similar Set TRADE for the 2YR is now at 3.6%.

Bearish TRADE and TREND means risk is to the downside.

DXY

USD is set to close Similar Set TRADE on today’s bar. We’ll need separation next week to confirm, but it’s in a bearish TREND, with the top of the range likely crossing below TREND. Noting to look for FX shorts next week.

FXC

Canadian dollar has the strongest short signal.

“So, is it Quad 2 or 3? What does a government shutdown mean for the Quads? What about stock blackout periods?”

These are all why questions. They don’t matter.

The Similar Set Signal delivers everything you need through pinpoint, actionable price levels backed by math.

Stay ahead of the market. Subscribe to Similar Set Signal today to trade with precision.

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Your Signal is already paying off nicely

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Similar Set Signal

No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.

Read more from Similar Set Signal

""Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Uncertainty is not a bug in the process. It is the operating condition. The Signal can move from Quad2 to Quad4 to Quad1 because markets are non-linear. The job is not to explain it, but to...

Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...

Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...