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Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

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Sound familiar?

​Thursday, March 5, 2026​

Yesterday focused on conditional positioning and the message that this storm isn't over yet.
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VIX

What did you do when fix was at 23 sitting at bullish Similar Set TREND?

Did you reduce weak long signals?

Did you sell some at the top end of the RANGE?

Did you reload on hedges?

It might sound like a lot of work, but with access to the full math, it's just a simple daily checklist of conditional positioning. Once you learn the process, checking your tickers and placing conditional orders takes less than an hour a day. You don't even need to watch the screen—you know exactly what you'll do before price ever gets there and have the discipline to execute.

MOVE

Thursday, March 5, 2026

"Storm isn't over yet"

This isn't hindsight. These are daily calls that accurately describe what the next day will likely bring.

HYG

Thursday, March 5, 2026

"Risk off backdrop"

QQQ

Similar Set TRADE rejected price three times while TREND flipped to the top side of the RANGE. This setup was bearish and told you exactly where to get short. Now it's too late—price is already at the low end of the RANGE—but oversold conditions can always get more oversold.

SPY

See how these fractal levels move? All this creates context.

• Two weeks ago TREND was below the low end of the RANGE.
• Then TREND started to move into the RANGE.
• As SPY failed to get back to bullish TRADE the low end of the RANGE started turning lower.
• Now TREND is closer to the top of the RANGE rather than below it entirely.

Notice the last three closes: two below TREND, one an overrun. Now we're seeing space open up between the bars and the TREND level. Study the math deliberately every day, and you'll master the markets.

Sector Signals

I'm building an interactive backtest so you can instantly see the numbers on each fractal setup for any ticker. Early findings show that these pullback trades (bullish TRADE + TREND) have hit rates over 73% across all tickers. These are the RANGE "round trips" we've reviewed day after day.

Intuitively, that's what I expected, but soon you'll have the hard data to confirm it. This will be part of the upcoming upgrade to the Fractal Signals product. If you're a Fractal Signals subscriber, watch for email updates.

XLU

Thursday, March 5, 2026

Utilities were the obvious buy yesterday. It's as simple as scanning sectors and spotting the only one in bullish TRADE + TREND at the RANGE. The math delivers clear daily instructions.

XLP

Math says reduce.

Before entering three days ago, you knew: if price drops below TRADE, reduce. You should size a position knowing a 2.5% move lower triggers that action.

On the flip side, a first break of TRADE means the next buy is at TREND—only another 2.5% lower—so your process might be to hold and add there.

How you run your process is up to you, but the fractal cycle stays consistent: a break of TRADE is an "early pullback," with another buy ahead.

If TREND breaks, sell everything—but you know the levels in advance. You can reverse-engineer risk by calculating "if this breaks, I do this, and that's X% drawdown."

XLI

Again, math says TRADE just broke, but context is everything.

It's over 1% outside the low end of the RANGE, with TREND right behind it. If you've executed the process all of 2026, your average price is still much lower so this might be a hold and add.

Regardless of what yo do here the next play is to have bids waiting just above 166.25 (TREND).

I'm not here to coach your book management—I'm here to show you the math is the edge you're missing and teach you how to use it.

XOP

Energy and oil are smoothing out portfolio volatility, but you needed to execute in real time last Wednesday to be positioned.

USO

Oil up 42% since the last fractal buy signal. If you're stressed that XLP and XLI are down 3% and breaking TRADE, it means you didn't equally weight and diversify before the storm.

XLF

Hedges are playing out. The signal was spot on.

XLY

Thursday, March 5, 2026

"Did you reload"

Did you sell some more at the green line as VIX moved outside the top end of its RANGE while XLY stayed below?

It takes about 30 seconds to place a limit order at 114.40 yesterday—that's a 2% gain to offset recent drawdowns in something like XLP.

Macro Markets

KOSPI

Wish you'd bought KOSPI 10% lower? Conditional positioning said you should have had an order at TREND. Does this fractal structure look familiar? To me, it looks exactly like XLI and XLP: first break of TRADE, buy at TREND.

EEM

EEM doesn't look the same.

Full exit was three days ago.

Have the discipline to exit, clear it from your screen, and move to the next play. All of this can be handled with premeditated orders—no need to torture yourself with every tick. You know the level and what to do "if this happens."

TLT

T-bonds are hanging on, barely. It's still an overrun, defined by volatility. My official "break" point is 0.8% past TREND—anything less is an overrun. It reached 0.7%. Fractal math at its finest.

DXY

The same process kept bearish TREND in the dollar since December 11. It flipped to bullish on March 2nd. Similar Set had me making money both ways, right on time. If you executed the buy, are you selling some now? You should be.

Euro

Euro had the strongest fractal structure, with the same overrun keeping you in during the huge spike up. The particulars matter.

GLD

Gold isn't panicking today. It's actually lowering volatility after delivering another fractal buy at the low end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE/TREND. Did you buy some three days ago?

Bitcoin

Thursday, March 5, 2026

"Don't chase, TRADE at 68,300"

The next day, Bitcoin rejected the top end of the RANGE and anchored to 68,300. Not magic—just very accurate math.

These are some of the toughest conditions. It's much easier in Quad 2 with VIX sub-17 for months, but the signal tells you what to do in both environments. The hard part is staying disciplined when emotions and headlines are flying. It takes practice—so start today.

If you want daily access to the full math, conditional levels, and a proven edge, subscribe to Similar Set Signal now and start mastering markets and it all come with a risk free window.

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