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Friday, March 13, 2026
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Did you have to wait until after Keith made his move, then hear about it the next day? Or can you see the fractal math in real time?
HYG
On February 27, the math said to get out — a storm was coming in markets. On Tuesday, it signaled to short. Now we're sitting at the low end of the RANGE as RANGE crosses below TREND.
TLT
Similar Set Signal got you out of TLT 3 days ago — in real time — not whenever Keith has time to update everyone on what he sees.
I used to get so tired of playing detective, piecing together clues. I just wished I had the signal so I could see the full picture clearly. That's exactly what the Similar Set Signal delivers — and it's damn good at fractal math.
VIX
Watch this 3-minute recap for live analysis on the VIX. But no one should be surprised it's up — and it has more room to run.
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A bullish TRADE + TREND is a dangerous place for the market. It helps to see in real time.
MOVE
Bond volatility hasn't seen a move like this since Liberation Day (Tariff Tantrum). What do they have in common? Both breakouts showed a flip to bullish TREND right before the explosion.
QQQ
Risk is to the downside when the ticker is in bearish TRADE/TREND.
Were you prepared?
Tuesday, March 10, 2026
Meta
Shorts were back on the table after the signal called the 16% counter-trend explosion.
Remember when all we did was say "buy the damn dip" in GOOGL for a full year? Well, the math just told you the exact date to stop going long and start shorting.
Sector Signals
The overall market is bearish, but some sectors are still in bullish TRENDs and have been working. We transitioned from XLP and XLI to XLE and XLU incrementally, day by day.
XLE
RANGE round trip ✅
XLU
RANGE round trip in progress ⏳
Did you buy the dip?
XLY
Exit + flip short. The signal works both ways — and more importantly, it tells you exactly when, with accuracy.
TSLA
The biggest stock in XLY? TSLA. Now down over 4% since we told you to get short at the top end of the RANGE in bearish TRADE/TREND.
It's the same set of rules repeated over and over. That's a process. Your job is to see which tickers are signaling "Execute" in real time.
XLP
Decision time for XLP. This is what happens when VIX, MOVE, and HYG blow out — the entire US market gets affected. That's why you want more than just US equities in your portfolio.
WMT
Walmart, one of the biggest stocks in XLP, is signaling a potential break back above TRADE after holding TREND. Could be a sign the rest of XLP will hold — and XLP is at a fractal buy (first break of TRADE, buy at TREND).
Macro Markets
GVAL
What did you do on all of these signals? Not just the one the popped the bubble.
And even then, it said to take profit. Stop buying the dip, because the next time it hit the low end of the RANGE, it was lower than the previous buy (hence no arrow). Then get out of your core position from last year and flip short the day before it starts its move — 3% lower, with another 3% after that to reach the RANGE.
HECA (Hedgeye Asset Management)
Want to long a basket of macro without the work? You can model Hedgeye's ticker with the Similar Set Signal.
Did you buy at TREND?
USO
Oil is starting to look wonky, but we never said to reduce — be ready to sell even more at the top end of the RANGE above $125.
DXY
DXY kept rising. Not magic — it's math. You should be getting paid in FX, which is different from US equities, different from global equities, different from gold.
Euro
GLD
Math got you in earlier. Not adding more here, and I'm ready — if TRADE breaks, it'll probably go to TREND. Not exiting until TREND breaks. I know my next two moves before they ever happen. That's a process.
Bitcoin
Bullish TRADE, bearish TREND. It's getting closer to 79K even in this market environment. The difference between what's crashing and Bitcoin? Bullish TRADE.
Tired of waiting for updates or piecing together clues after the fact?
The Similar Set Signal gives you the fractal math in real time — clear TRADE, TREND, and RANGE levels across tickers, sectors, and macro assets.
Subscribe today and start seeing the full picture for yourself — before the move happens.
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The Old Wall model was built on certainty, reassurance, and narratives, while AI and The Machine are replacing that with signal, speed, and accuracy." — Keith McCullough Yesterday marked a clear...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The #Quad4 probability is rising because the signals are changing across assets: Bitcoin, crypto, oil, volatility, megacap tech, the US Dollar, and bond yields are all showing more defensive...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Crash calls require signal, not narrative. The key is identifying emergent properties across similar sets, fractal dimensions, and multiple durations." — Keith McCullough If you are freaking out...