Friday, February 13, 2026


Welcome back Reader!


How to Read Chart

Left Side - Similar Set TREND

Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile.

New Similar Set Handbook

Confused about what's going on in the newsletter?

More questions?

Drop them on X: @Similar_set


If it’s a Quad 1 monthly in February, why am I suddenly seeing Quad 3? Because Quads are hindsight. Knowing the Quad after the fact isn’t an edge—it’s helpful frame work to describe the market but it isn't real time. That’s why the order is Signal then Quad, not the other way around.

The Signal shows you—in real time—what the market is actually pricing in. Relying only on historical data, backtests, or predicted Quads leaves you confused, late, and paralyzed to execute.

It's definitely confusing… but Similar Set Signal isn’t. See the math, follow what the math is doing, and you’ll always be positioned correctly—no matter how the Quad label changes.

VIX

Even if you subscribed to every product, you’d still never see exactly where TRADE and TREND are. How can you spot building risk if you can’t see TRADE breaking multiple times or precisely when TREND breaks? You’re at a huge disadvantage. Keith makes it look easy because he has all the information. You don’t.

Right now, VIX is holding a bearish TREND but remains in bullish TRADE. Things can flip quickly in either direction depending on whether TRADE or TREND breaks.

HYG

Credit is showing real strength: it’s holding separation from TREND, overrunning TRADE, and the RANGE is sloping upward. The particulars matter.

QQQ

Normally a long in Quad 3. Not today.
Normally a long in Quad 1. Not today.

The Signal is all you need to execute the edge. I’m out of any tech dips—Nasdaq is in bearish TRADE and TREND, so these aren’t dips until the Signal recovers.

IWM

To buy the right dip, you need to know exactly where TRADE and TREND sit.

ITB

Two Fridays ago, I didn’t need to know today’s Quad to buy ITB, XLI, and XLP. I just needed the Signal.

XLI

XLP

XLU

No one predicted Quad 3 back on February 9. Knowing it’s Quad 3 today didn’t help you buy utilities five days ago when the Signal gave a clear fractal entry (break of TRADE + TREND).

XLF

Same story with financials. On January 23—still in Quad 1 and expecting another Quad 1 monthly in February—the Signal broke down. You could have spent the next weeks buying the “dip” in exactly the wrong place, thinking you were following the process. That doesn’t feel like much of an edge.

Macro Markets

Since it’s Signal then Quad, you really have only two paths:

  1. Subscribe to tons of products, play detective, and try to reverse-engineer what Keith is doing as fast as possible, or
  2. Own Similar Set Signal and master fractal signals yourself—with full information, in real time, on every ticker.

I used to be person 1 then I built the Similar Set Signal to become person 2.

30Y

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Two days later: counter-TREND move and full TREND break—now over 2% higher. You needed to see the math live, not guess what Quad would be in the Early Look— after the move already happened.

USO

Oil is flashing its first fractal buy setup since breaking TREND on January 12. (Fractal buy = price at RANGE while both are above bullish TRADE + TREND.) Simple—but you need all the information to execute.

DXY

The dollar is trying to break TRADE while RANGE crosses below TREND.

The low end could roll over with a clean break of TRADE (close + separation). Confused by any fractal terms? Check the handbook—it explains how to read price within the Signal (map & key).

GLD

Gold still holds bullish TRADE and TREND, but the top of RANGE is crashing down and the low end is below TREND.

That’s why you buy at TREND in real time.

Most people had no clue what to do when gold dropped 15% in two days. The math was actually clear and simple.

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

The Signal nailed this latest move—and the 10 fractal signals before it during the entire 2025 bull run.

SLV

Monday, February 2, 2026

"Exit SLV. Gold is the dip to buy today in metals."

Still bearish TRADE + TREND, and RANGE is now close to crossing below TREND—with the low end 25% lower at 51.

Bitcoin

Don’t get too excited about this bounce. Still bearish TRADE and TREND. TRADE is sitting in the middle of RANGE, so no fractal short yet—but no longs either until a break of TREND at 79K. Being on time pays. Bitcoin signaled short at 115K and again at 90K.

Want to stop guessing Quads, eliminate the confusion, and trade with the real-time math on every ticker? Subscribe to Similar Set Signal today and get full access to TRADE, TREND, RANGE in real time—so you’re always positioned ahead of the move, not reacting to it.

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If you have any questions, reply to this email and I'll get back to you!

Similar Set Signal

No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.

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