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Markets don’t usually make sense, yet most people trade based on narratives (logical theories) just to feel comfortable putting risk on an idea.

I use fractal math instead.

I don’t buy at the top end of the RANGE. This red day isn’t surprising — it’s exactly what the fractal math told you BEFORE it happened. A lot of tickers were sitting at the top end of the RANGE.

If you only stick to transacting at the bottom end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND, or at the top end of the RANGE in bearish TRADE TREND, you won’t get caught with the crowd in upside-down positions very often. And when you do, other positions cover those rare occurrences.

The problem is two-fold: one, not being able to see TRADE TREND RANGE on every ticker in real time; and two, the discipline to only act at those prices. The rest is just managing those entries — whether that’s selling some at the other end of the RANGE, reducing on a TRADE break, or exiting on a TREND break.

That’s it. That’s the whole game. Let’s review today’s charts. If you only did that, you’ll realize it doesn’t matter if a ticker is going up, down, or sideways — the math positioned you correctly in real time.

VIX

VIX broke down last Thursday and is now near the low end of the RANGE. It’s bouncing. Is today a day to panic, or is this just exactly what the math said could come?

QQQ

Since QQQ was at the low end of the RANGE and TREND, it was up 6.07% in four days and closed two straight days outside the top end of the RANGE. That’s not a bearish signal. Markets don’t move in straight lines. The problem is not many were in this move since the 16th — they chased higher at the top end of the RANGE and now sit in a weak position, managing emotions and creating fear when the math is clear going forward. Expectation is new ATHs in bullish TRADE TREND.

IWM

Small caps have the complete opposite signal. They were near the top end of the RANGE in bearish TRADE TREND. It just crossed below its Sept 16th closing price. That’s the difference between being in the red or up 6%. Fractal math is how you see these in real time.

SPHB

High beta still looks healthy. Now you want to see the low end of the RANGE rise above TREND to catch up to price.

MAGS

Concentration was the key theme from yesterday’s post. Mega caps and growth tech are the strongest signals in the market, with AI reclaiming its bubble too.

SMH

Overruns vs breaks. Semis are back to bullish TRADE TREND.

Sector Signals

Software is one of the only sectors green on the day. The other is XLE. You should be in both based on the Similar Set Signal fractal instructions.

IGV

XLE

XLE is holding bullish TRADE. It needs to keep the line or it becomes a reduce signal. These are areas to pay attention to — not panic. Just follow the process and let go of the result. You see this math work day in and day out on every ticker in any market. It doesn’t always mean every transaction will be green, but a good decision doesn’t necessarily mean making money. It can also be to save you money.

PBR

Oil stock. Math flips bullish, TREND moves lower, rips off TREND, then just gave you a pullback in bullish TRADE TREND at the low end of the RANGE. Next day it’s at the top end of the RANGE.

GLS

Shipping is a sector I haven’t covered in this newsletter, but that doesn’t mean the math isn’t nailing it. Again: flips bullish TREND, rips off of it, pullback to the low end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND. The “stock market” isn’t all the same — some tickers are collapsing while others look like the mother of all bubbles. I wouldn’t be able to make money in markets without the Similar Set Signal showing me the difference.

BWET

More shipping stocks, same result. These charts look nice in hindsight. The problem most people have is discipline and patience — only 3 days to make moves since July 7th. The bullish flip and two low ends of the RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND. Similar Set Signal solves the patience problem because you have the Signal on everything that ticks versus having a few popular stocks everyone owns. Something is always in bullish TRADE TREND or bearish TRADE TREND when you have unlimited tickers.

XLF

A full fractal cycle is a thing of beauty.

XLV

Are you following the fractal math in real time? Also, reduce doesn’t mean exit.

XLY

Longs become shorts. It’s the nature of fractal cycles. Was XLY a good decision to be adding in August? YES. Did it work? No. Did you exit? You should have. Was there an opportunity to get short? Yes. Do you have to be? No. But you do have to be flat. Number one rule: don’t be long bearish TRENDs. This is why. Imagine being long XLY versus all these other tickers in bullish TRADE TREND. I definitely couldn’t imagine not being able to see exactly where TREND is on everything I own.

XLI

Something I don’t talk about a lot is TAIL. That’s because it adds complexity. The main rules are TRADE TREND. I don’t have rules for TAIL, but it is good to be aware of that TAIL level, especially in a sustained TREND. For example, XLI has been a great short. Where did the absolute cycle low so far come from? 167.47. Where was TAIL? 167.39.

So for me, TAIL is just an awareness level. I wouldn’t want to add this as a short at the top end of the RANGE — there are other plays to be made. I’m not going long either, as it’s bearish TRADE TREND.

I’ve updated the Fractal Signals indicator to have all three durations on the Daily chart now. Just re-add the indicator to the chart to get the newest version if you are a subscriber to it.

XLU

XLU does not have a TAIL problem.

Macro Markets

DXY

Again, this is why I don’t show TAIL that much — because it looks confusing. But having access to it on your own chart and implementing it into your process is a valuable tool to have. I covered it in real time that DXY was bearish TRADE TREND and looked great for new cycle lows. But look at what stopped it: TAIL. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have expected lower, but after the second time failing to get below, along with breaking bullish TRADE and finally a Fed rate hike as the catalyst to break TREND, it was a useful level of awareness.

COLO

Monday I was fully prepared to reduce. Today I did. I even cut the entire position because of how strong the dollar looks. I leave myself that option to at minimum reduce. But why would I hold this when I saw the weakness coming? Now it’s here and there is 5% lower until it reaches TREND. When you ride a bull like this for months, I can exit and rotate to the next play.

​Monday, September 21, 2026​

TLT

Monday

Tuesday

Today — monster move in TLT. You absolutely should have been positioned for it.

COM

Bullish TRADE TREND at the low end of the RANGE and TLT crashing. Don’t be surprised if COM is ripping tomorrow.

GLD

Timestamps matter. I was not long Gold, nor calling for a bottom at every new low like every gold bug bagholder. After March 13th, the first time I said I was getting long again was August 13. Then I reduced to min when I got back from vacation Sept 13. Now I’m completely out.

There is no such thing as a short- or long-time investor. It’s just however long the flows last (fractal math supports the position).

BTC

Bitcoin consolidating at the top end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND. Fractal math doing its job.

Similar Set Signal shows you TRADE TREND and RANGE on every ticker in real time so you stay out of the crowd’s upside-down positions. Subscribe to Similar Set Signal today and turn every chart into a clear, repeatable process instead of another guess. Try it today 90 days risk free 👇

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