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Wednesday, July 15, 2026
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This is an extremely important distinction. The math knows what to do in real time. It doesn’t wait for confirmation. That’s your edge.
If you have to wait for me or someone else to tell you the math, that edge fades. That is why the Similar Set Signal exists — it lets you see the full fractal picture in motion in real time.
VIX
VIX is consolidating as the low end of the RANGE comes in and TREND moved from +21 to sub 20. It remains in a bearish TRADE TREND, putting a cap on volatility on these red days.
MOVE
Bond volatility on the other hand is breaking out. If bond volatility becomes trending, VIX will have a hard time staying sub 20. Fractal math is never just one signal — it is a collective view of the entire machine.
HYG
Credit is still signaling Quad 4 as TREND sits above the top end of the RANGE.
Copper
Copper is at the top end of the RANGE and TREND. It has a lot of math to fight through to keep going higher. This is another signal that Quad 4 is still in play.
QQQ
This is now the third lower high and bearish TRADE attempt. This is a weakening signal, not a strengthening one.
KOSPI
KOSPI, an AI proxy, broke TREND two days ago and is just bouncing back to TREND as the top end of the RANGE comes down. This is a big transition signal. With the math on your screen, it is clear this is not a bounce you are looking to buy — it is one to short.
DRAM
DRAM is falling below TREND today after breaking TRADE on July 7th. Another AI signal that is weakening, not strengthening. At the least, you should be closing out AI exposure. This is how bubbles pop.
Are you okay with buying the dip on July 1st at the low end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND, then starting to reduce the next day, and exiting completely today? That is what the math says. Don’t fight the math.
QCOM
Within the AI bubble, some stocks already broke and confirmed with the top end of the RANGE crossing TREND.
LITE
Another one. LITE is down 11% today. Anyone holding this should not be surprised if they can see the fractal math. The machine recognized this pattern in real time — it is just confirming today. Similar Set Signal told you the move before the move played out.
Sector Signals
Sector —> Signal
Most people don’t need more opportunities to be successful. They need a stronger edge signal to execute on. The Fractal Signals narrow it down to three opportunities: Entry, 1st pullback, and pullback.
Adding a layer of sector indexes lets you either transact in the index instead of individual stocks or wait for a signal to appear on the index before transacting in stocks.
IGV
Example:
ORCL
What software signaled short on June 17th? ORCL.
Down 33% since.
UFO
Another example: How I found Rocket Labs.
RKLB
Not to mention the initial short. Or were you buying SpaceX? Similar Set Signal told you to do the exact opposite of the crowd.
LLY
If you use that in your process, you can see LLY is the most recent example. It frames just how good today’s price in LLY is. XLV is signaling 1st pullback. That is significant because that fractal setup means healthcare has already transitioned from bearish to bullish. The RANGE is now above both TRADE and TREND across a basket of healthcare stocks. A single ticker can be an outlier.
Remember, entries happen in the middle of a transition. They mean get out of the other direction and here is the absolute earliest price to position. There are trade-offs: early means lower win rate but bigger gains.
If you were struggling in markets, only making moves on 1st pullback and 1st rallies on indexes/sectors would be where I would start simplifying it to one edge. This turns what makes most people fail on its head. You look for one setup and add more tickers. Instead of more signals on same ticker.
With Similar Set Signal you can model anything that ticks — infinite supply.
XLY
Consumer Discretionary is telling you to get short today. What Consumer Discretionary ticker aligns with that? TSLA.
TSLA
XLC
Communications are breaking out today. What do you do with that?
ZM
I covered shorts like ZM.
Despite ZM signaling strength to the short side, the index is saying the opposite. Maybe ZM does go down — that is okay. I only want exposure to tickers that align. Building sector indexes into your process will significantly increase your edge.
MAGS
Told you to get out four days ago and it has ripped ever since. Getting out is just as important as getting in. Both contribute to PnL. Most people only know how to buy, not how to exit. Similar Set Signal does both.
AAPL
This was the individual ticker to play when MAGS signaled flat.
Macro Markets
2YR
Short end is breaking bearish TRADE, meaning the FED is behind the curve. But the long end is pricing in inflation. That is a pickle and why Bond Volatility is starting to break out.
30YR
Long end still pricing in inflation.
Oil
With 30YR being an index for Oil (inflation expectations), Oil is stalling at TRADE at the top end of the RANGE in bearish TREND. Is that something I want to try to predict, especially with headline risk? No. I will put my exposure elsewhere. The move was to get short June 9th.
COM
Commodities as a whole are signaling inflation. It told you two days ago to reduce short exposure. It has ripped both days after.
UUP
Dollar is still holding bullish TRADE and TREND at the low end of the RANGE, meaning expectation is up and risk is built into dollar-correlated tickers like Gold and Bitcoin.
GLD
Using Dollar as Gold’s index paired with its signal, new lows are expected. Never buy something because it is down a lot. Buy when the signal changes.
BTC
Everyone is getting excited because Bitcoin isn’t crashing on red days. The math clearly shows there is a ton of risk today at these prices.
Each fractal clearly states how early you are in the fractal cycle. Learn about it here:
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Rally is still in bearish TRADE TREND but it is the third setup fractal cycle. It is not early, it is not late either — but keep in mind that each signal is different.
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
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