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How does that look coming out of July Quad 4?

• Exit Quad 4 shorts and flip long August 6.
  Long Macro August 13.

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This week should have taken some profits from winners and built core positions in things like IWM as we head for a Quad 1 (accelerating growth) based on Hedgeye’s data next month.

VIX

The volatility of volatility has collapsed, which is why the RANGE is so tight. It’s been giving you chances to buy strong fractal structures at the low end of their RANGEs since August 18th. Today NVDA has its earnings report and Friday new Fed Chair Warsh makes his first Jackson Hole speech. Both seem to be keeping the market stagnant until they pass.

MOVE

Bond volatility made a big move lower. It’s not magic—it’s highly accurate fractal math.

​Tuesday, August 25, 2026​

HYG

Credit is back in bullish TRADE TREND. The market is quietly preparing to rip to new ATHs beneath the surface.

SPY

SPY has stopped making lower lows in bullish TRADE TREND. These are the days most people will wish they had back once the market makes new ATHs. The reason most people don’t have the “conviction” to go big enough when it’s here is because they don’t have a solid process to identify WHEN to buy the damn dip. I can go big because I know if the market drops another 3-4% I’ll be out (break back to bearish TREND)—that’s my risk here.

IWM

Building a core position in small caps under $300 is my largest index position, and my index positions are bigger than my sector and individual stock positions.

Factor Exposures

MAGS

Mega caps are making higher lows during this lull.

SPHB

High bet holding bullish TRADE TREND.

Sector Signals

DRAM

AI is holding bullish TRADE. That doesn’t mean I’m longing it, but this sector—the biggest risk to dragging the entire market down—has stabilized.

NVDA

Earnings can be a bit of a wild card, but the signal is saying it should rip after the report.

IGV

Buy software below the low end of the RANGE on the market open? Math said so too.

MSFT

Microsoft quietly up 4% off the low end of the RANGE. With IGV still at the low end of the RANGE, not taking much off here—waiting for the new ATH rip.

AMZN

Amazon stopped making new lows and is holding bullish TREND. Consumers love Quad 1, and I expect this to be a good core position by end of September. But remember the opening quote from Keith: “I’m not certain about any position.” I’m certain I should be exposed to this, but that would change with a break of TREND.

V

Financials has been a core position and the 18th was your WHEN moment. Now it’s time to trim some and reallocate to IWM—or at least that’s what I did based on the fractal instructions.

XLV

Same with healthcare.

XLC

Communications is another sector breaking out this week. Bullish for broadening.

XLE

Energy sector is bouncing close to 2% since it opened at the low end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND. Time to add as of August 7th with a Quad 3 August—now waiting to reduce the position on a bounce toward the top end of the RANGE.

QTUM

QTUM is a basket of small-cap high beta. Holding on to this until it breaks TRADE. Signal is weakening, so can reduce some here if too big in it.

Macro Markets

DXY

The level we are seeing today in DXY was the level to watch since Monday. Now we’re here, going into the Jackson Hole speech Friday. The dollar is in a prime spot to make another new cycle low. If it breaks TRADE, expect another push up to TREND at 100.17. This is what a real process looks like—not certain “calls,” but conditional outcomes.

​Monday, August 24, 2026​

TLT

Reduce TLT yesterday? Seeing the market as one whole fractal machine? TLT and the dollar have major market implications. It’s important to see the full fractal map in real time to make consistently good decisions.

​Tuesday, August 25, 2026​

Oil

Oil bouncing.

​Tuesday, August 25, 2026​

WOOD

Selling a good amount of WOOD as TLT is signaling a break in inflation momentum. This is how you unlock the process with full fractal math.

​Tuesday, August 18, 2026​

COLO

First lower low since the fractal buy on July 28th. This comes on a bounce in the DXY. WHEN DXY was outside the low end of the RANGE after a major drop was the time to be selling some macro assets at the top end of the RANGE—such as global equities, metals, and crypto.

HECA (Hedgeye Asset Management ETF)

As a reminder, with the Similar Set Signal you can model anything. This is a great ticker to be exposed to when in bullish TRADE TREND, as it’s a diversified basket of assets based on the Hedgeye process. It’s not bulletproof—as you saw a major drawdown—but the fractal math saved you from wearing it.

GLD

Gold pulling off the top end of the RANGE, right as the dollar got oversold and bounced.

SLV

Silver is giving you another day to sell some gold and broaden into other metals.

BTC

Bitcoin stopped going up after the dollar stopped going down. Again, DXY is at a prime spot to head lower from TRADE in bearish TREND if the Jackson Hole speech is dovish on Friday. The RANGE is dramatically repricing the higher low, so anything around $74k is a chance to buy near the low end of the RANGE on the first pullback to it after flipping bullish in early August. If the dollar pushes lower and breaks TAIL (reviewed that on Monday, August 24, 2026), that’ll most likely be the trigger to melt more faces in crypto.

Stop guessing. Stop reacting. Start seeing the full fractal map in real time the way the Keith does. Similar Set Signal gives you the exact WHEN, the conditional outcomes, and the risk rules that turn market noise into clear, repeatable process—so you can size up with conviction when the signal is right and step aside the moment it isn’t. The next Quad shift is already loading. Don’t watch it from the sidelines. Subscribe to Similar Set Signal today and start trading the math instead of the headlines.

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