Tuesday, September 30th, 2025


Welcome back Reader!

Pro Tip: If you want bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile

How to Read Chart

Left Side - Daily (Similar Set TREND)

Right Side - 4HR (Similar Set TRADE)

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“I’ve tried to give people hints on how to build their own risk ranges and fractal dimensions.” - Keith McCullough

I call mine the Similar Set Signal and I offer it to you.

Rates

On September 18th, the 2YR broke its Similar Set TRADE. This led to higher lows in its range, which we’re seeing 10 days later. The fractal gods were whispering what the market will do next.

DXY

The DXY is a Similar Set fractal. It broke TRADE and is now forming higher lows in its range.

Gold

Nothing in THIS signal says Gold has peaked. But when paired with DXY and 2YR signals—and their correlations—if the bullish TRADE holds, expect higher lows and a potential TREND break, which DXY just failed to achieve on it's first try.

How to play it? Sell SOME at the top end of the range, as always. Then wait for a TRADE break (2.3% lower) and sell to MIN or ALL.

VIX

Surprised by the market’s calm with a government shutdown looming?

The VIX is back in bullish TRADE, signaling underlying risk of a spike that wasn’t there yesterday. Only the fractal machine catches what the human eye misses.

Russell 2000

Small caps are showing weakness, failing to reclaim bullish TRADE. They’re still in a bullish Similar Set TREND, but like the VIX, this is something to monitor.

With most equities at the top of their range and the VIX brewing risk, adding some shorts makes sense.

Germany EWG

Did you sell SOME on September 25th?

Now, as EWG hits the top end of its range at TRADE within a bearish TREND, it’s a textbook short. A MAX position setup.

CANE

Sugar is in a Similar Set setup but could run further. Add incrementally.

TOKE

The Similar Set front-runs the news.

September 19th

Did you sell SOME yesterday?

NVDA

September 25th

Did you buy at TRADE? It’s up 7.75% since the Similar Set Signal flagged it.

XLE

One of the few tickers at the low end of its range, within bullish TRADE and TREND, XLE is a great spot to redistribute profits.

Crypto

Unloaded my short at the top end of the range, and reloaded at TRADE. 🎯

This time, XRP and AAVE showed the strongest signals to short.

XRP

AAVE

Read September 25th post on why I wasn’t buying the crypto dip and was shorting instead.

ETH

Here's what happened in ETH:

  1. Sell some outside top end of range.
  2. Break TRADE September 20th (sell more).
  3. Dropped 10% to TREND.
  4. Failed at TREND, now back at bearish TRADE while USDT.D sits at bullish TRADE.

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Similar Set Signal

No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.

Read more from Similar Set Signal

Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set “I think financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data… The more the markets are paying attention to what is happening in the real economy… The more financial markets can price...

Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Repetition is the real edge. The process, the routine, and the daily reps matter more than bold calls or knockout moments." — Keith McCullough The bold calls only happen in hindsight after the...

""Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The answer to WHEN is still process, not prediction. When Market Structure changes, Risk Range dimensions shift, TRADE breaks, and TREND follows the pattern remembers, the Cycle follows sequence,...