""Welcome back Reader!

​
How to Read Chart

Left Side - Similar Set TREND

Right Side - Similar Set TRADE

Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile.

New Similar Set Handbook

Confused about what's going on in the newsletter?

More questions?

Drop them on X: @Similar_set

After going through this 100-day war with blatant headline lies, I don’t know how you can trust anything you read online anymore. Good thing I wasn’t using them anyway. I had a process before, but it’s even clearer now: Similar Set Signal is the solution to know what comes next. It’s just math.

VIX

The math doesn’t get more accurate than this. If you had this on your screen, it was very clear when to REDUCE + Hedge (not go full Quad 4, closing longs and running net SHORT) on Friday, June 5th when it broke TRADE. Then last Friday, June 12th, it was time to close the hedges and go back to NET LONG for this epic rally off the lows—while the bubble poppers are in disbelief again, trying to cope and force the market into what they think should be happening instead of what is happening.

​Friday, June 12, 2026​

Nothing about this chart is bearish. In fact, there are lower lows being printed in the RANGE right now at 14.52.

HYG

Close bullish TREND Thursday, June 11 — not Quad 4.

MOVE

The last Quad 4 crash happened at the start of the war back in February (the signal nailed that day before it broke out). Did you see any Quad 4 warning signs in the bond market on the right side of the chart? No. Not even close. That’s why you need the math on your screen to judge these things for yourself. Keith says Quad 4 and subscribers got put into a buzzsaw because there is a gap of information plus a time lapse component when you don’t have his math. I used to be that subscriber. Now I can make my own incremental decisions because I have the math. And it is offered to you every day at the end of this newsletter if you want to make the change too.

QQQ

Did you sell all your bubble exposure at the absolute worst time? It was the first touch of the low end of the RANGE after the most violent run up I’ve ever seen. The math told you not to panic. The sequence is: low end of the RANGE. If you don’t bounce off that immediately, watch for a break of TRADE. If TRADE breaks, expect TREND. If TREND breaks, then exit. That’s the sequence every time.

You were still 5% from touching TREND, then another 2% past TREND to break it. That’s when you sell all and run net short. The problem is most people missed the whole move up (April 8th math flipped), then finally bought the first dip and couldn’t keep it together for 3 days of price moving against them.

I get it. It’s scary if you don’t know what you’re doing, can’t see the full fractal picture, and someone says Quad 4. Panic will win every time if you don’t have all the information.

IWM

Small caps were at ATHs at the top end of the RANGE on Friday before the peace deal was confirmed. That’s simply not what a Quad 4 looks like. But you need experience seeing the math to know what a Quad 4 looks like. That’s why I write this newsletter every day—to help—but you still need the math for yourself to execute at your highest level.

AAPL

Apple is one of the strongest tickers I’ve found that was still near the low end of its RANGE. I was buying the shit out of it yesterday at TRADE.

Why?

Not because of some fundamental view or narrative, but because of the math. Just the math. Most tickers are either in bullish TRADE/TREND at the top of their RANGE or in bearish TRADE or TREND at the bottom of the RANGE. That’s it. That’s as complicated as it gets.

GOOGL

The math is very complicated, but reading the math is very simple. You don’t need to recreate the math. You just need to try it for 90 days risk free and you’ll never go back without it. I guarantee it.
​

Just take a quick look at some of these other tickers and compare to Apple. It’s obvious what to buy.

NVDA

Bearish TRADE, RANGE below TREND.

AMZN

Bearish TRADE, RANGE below TREND.

TSLA

Bearish TRADE, RANGE below TREND.

META

Bearish TRADE and TREND (actually a hedge signal if you needed to balance your book. I’m not here to do that, but that’s a very individual question and one the Similar Set Signal answers with clear fractal instructions.)

MSFT

Bearish TRADE and TREND and RANGE is crossing below TREND — most bearish signal.

Macro Markets

Oil

The Similar Set Signal got you out of Oil before anyone else. Check the timestamps—this wasn’t “out of nowhere.” This was two weeks of fractal math building. And the market clearly doesn’t care about all the really smart people saying there is an Oil shortage. Even if they are right, they are losing money. So who is really right where it matters? The people using fractal math to be short this asset class.

​Friday, May 29, 2026​

XLE

US energy equities are another way to be short Oil, and they were at TREND + top end of the RANGE on Friday. Did you see it?

TLT

May 26th. Pretty important date in hindsight, but the math told you in real time what to be doing. Inflation peaked and it was time to short Oil and REDUCE bonds significantly as it kept holding TRADE and eventually went to the next part of the sequence: break TREND, which was Thursday, June 11th—two days prior to the peace deal. Math said exit completely and flip the other direction.

2 YR

Global macro has a big day tomorrow with it being the first Fed meeting with the new chair. The two key tickers to read today going into the meeting are the 2YR Fed front runner and DXY.

The Fed front runner is in a double failure of TRADE and a falling RANGE. That is a top unless TRADE can be reclaimed above 4.01% with 3% move down to TREND as the next level of defense. This to me is setting up to be DOVISH.

With Oil collapsing and Quad 4 data next month (remember he’s not using the same models as Powell), maybe there will be a rate cut tomorrow. There’s only a 1% chance of being that dovish according to the markets, but maybe the speech is extremely dovish. I don’t know, but that’s the read I’m getting via the math.

DXY

Dollar is the other major factor to analyze before the news hits the tape. I’m seeing some weakness as it’s struggling to hold TRADE, but no clear separation. It does remain in bullish TREND with RANGE above TREND. To me, whatever 4HR line it CLOSES past will be the direction it moves.
​

This is me just trying to get a read on tomorrow. I don’t have any FX positions on going into this meeting.

Euro

The Euro is actually in a much cleaner fractal formation at the top end of the RANGE in bearish TRADE and TREND. Looking at this now, I might put on some short Euro after I’m done writing this.

GLD

Gold still sucks but the math is moving quickly. TREND has fallen over 6% over the last week and TRADE is in the middle of the RANGE. It’s not a long signal but not a short signal either. It needs to break TRADE to unlock the next sequence, which could potentially get me long GLD (break bullish TREND).

BTC

Depending on the timeseries you look at changes how you play Bitcoin. Using Coinbase (24/7 data), TRADE is quicker and shows bullish, which means don’t short at the top end of the RANGE. But it still is overbought because it’s at its RANGE.

IBIT

If you look at cash hours only market, it’s a shorting opportunity. I think it’s important to just look at one or the other consistently rather than trying to decide which to follow on a given day. That said, I think the DXY chart will decide if Coinbase or IBIT is right here. So for me I’ll just play the strongest ticker in this correlation, which is actually the Euro. If you equal weight positions it doesn’t matter the volatility—I’ll make the same. And I lean towards the strongest ticker without news catalyst (Bitcoin still has clarity act drama; FX already seen other Euro rate hike).

Subscribe to Similar Set Signal today and get the full fractal. Try it for 90 days risk-free—you’ll never go back. Click here to join now and take control of what comes next.

90-DAY MONEY BACK GUARANTEE

3-month interest-free payment plan.

What are customers saying about the Similar Set Signal?

Your Signal is already paying off nicely

This is exactly what all Hedgeye subs are missing

What a game changer

Accelerated my understanding of the process like you can’t believe

This is the tool I needed!

For the first time since becoming a Hedgeye sub

My win percentage has gone roof"

If you have any questions, reply to this email and I'll get back to you!