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If you can go anywhere and model every ticker, this is a refreshing shift in markets.
What is the fractal math signaling now?
After the Fed meeting yesterday, DXY, rates, Oil, precious metals — all signaling QUAD 4. Again, it doesn’t matter what you call it. It’s just a framework to explain positioning. Stocks aren’t showing QUAD 4 currently. You can be positioned for both — just follow the fractal math.
With Keith not on the macro show again today, are you able to see the process without him? Similar Set Signal subscribers can.
Bearish TRADE/TREND — not a QUAD 4 signal in US equities. It has room to the low end of the RANGE. The signal would completely change if it breaks TRADE for a second time above 19.24. Stay aligned with the market and stop reacting to whatever macro tourists are talking about this week.
Bullish TRADE/TREND — not a QUAD 4 signal.
Bond volatility bouncing off the low end of the RANGE in a firm bearish TREND — not a QUAD 4 signal.
Stay long the bubble until the math tells you it’s popped.
Semis are driving this bubble and they are making new ATHs within a bullish TRADE/TREND. Not a QUAD 4 signal.
Mag 7 looks very different in bearish TRADE with big lower highs in the RANGE. The math is telling you what you should be exposed to in US equities — and it’s not what financial advisors are stuffing in your 401ks.
Apple is the only Mag 7 I’d own right now as it’s in bullish TRADE/TREND but still showing a big lower high in the RANGE.
Being long Apple and short Meta is generating alpha, because that’s what the math is telling me to do.
Tesla would be my next short if I needed US equity short exposure, but the signal isn’t telling me to get net short in equities yet.
Getting net long real estate because of rate signals is a better position to put on in equities than grossing up shorts. Low end of the RANGE in bullish TREND.
Same with healthcare.
And more specifically Lilly. See, with full access to the fractal math you can be a surgeon with your exposure — exactly what the machine is telling you in real time.
Oil should be your core short against inflation and it’s told you to cover some and reload other commodities that were at the top end of their RANGE — like Wheat yesterday.
Before we get to Wheat, make sure to cover some after the market rewards you for your discipline.
Cover SOME Oil, reload Wheat at its fractal signal. You don’t have to be an Oil expert or an Agricultural specialist — just follow the fractal instructions. There is plenty to be short of in macro besides STOCKS.
I’m going to be using UUP instead of the DXY index going forward as it’s just a much cleaner signal using only regular trading hour cash market data. There was no doubt about being short FX going into the Fed meeting yesterday.
Euro was screaming get short before the Fed meeting and crashed to the end of the RANGE in a single day. That’s what happens in bearish TRADE/TREND from the top end of the RANGE. I don’t need to try and short the AI bubble — I’d rather be short what the machine is telling me to short.
If you could go anywhere, you would. With the Similar Set Signal, you can.
Short end is pricing in rate hikes while the long end is pricing in QUAD 4.
Warsh said there will be no forward guidance, so it should be fun in six weeks until the next meeting because inflation is crashing. Markets will just got done with the July QUAD 4 with a Fed willing to completely flip based on the data. The long end of the curve are falling and signaling it will continue to fall, forcing a major repricing of the 2YR.
Regardless, I will just follow the fractal instructions daily. This is more of an intellectual interest rather than a process change. This is why it’s so essential to have access to the full fractal math. Wars don’t change the daily process. Oil inventories, tariffs (if you’re old enough, remember April 2025 Liberation Day), Fed overhauls — nothing changes it. Fractal math sees it all as one market machine then simplifies the extreme complexity of markets into simple, highly accurate instructions.
Watching for economic data to change major asset classes like Copper. As of right now, it’s not signaling QUAD 4 — still in bullish TRADE/TREND.
Zero reasons to be long Gold, and precious metals was a place to add short exposure yesterday.
Specifically in Palladium, now down 5%.
Long EWT, short EWZ. Why? Bullish TRADE/TREND at low end of the RANGE vs. bearish TRADE/TREND at top end of the RANGE. That’s it. Alpha.
Can you short Bitcoin and be long semis? Fractal math instructed you to be. Bitcoin down over 1% while QQQ up 2%. Alpha.
Coinbase signaling the same thing.
If crypto continues to crash, Zcash would be my next short to add to the downside if we get a fractal signal, because it’s yet to flip and has a batting average of over 50% on those signals.
I guarantee once you have access to the full fractal math you’ll never go back. Hence the 90 day risk free grace period, why not try it? It’ll pay for itself in the first 90 days.
3-month interest-free payment plan.
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No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Repetition is the real edge. The process, the routine, and the daily reps matter more than bold calls or knockout moments." — Keith McCullough The bold calls only happen in hindsight after the...
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