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Tuesday, September 29, 2026
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More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. Not an overly eventful day in the markets as we close out Q3 tomorrow. Let’s go over the fractal flows: VIXThe VIX event was September 17th and since then it has held bearish TRADE TREND. At this point an overrun of TRADE has TREND and the low end of the RANGE to back it up, with Quad 2 data coming. This is a bullish setup. We might get a day or two of panic to spike to TREND at 17.34, but I’d be a buyer on that. My decisions have zero reflection on “runaway rates,” jobs data, Fed hikes, or anything else. All of that is priced into the flows in real time. My opinion on headlines means nothing to the market. In fact, I like seeing headlines and panic into charts that look like this. MOVEBond volatility, on the other hand, is in trending volatility and doing exactly what it said it should be doing since it flipped September 1st. Exploding bond volatility doesn’t mean short equities. It means you should have been short for this epic move in TLT (which is oversold today). This is not a time to get bearish here. It’s a time to fade the panic and sell some. HYGCredit is getting whacked on this move in rates. It’s not oversold. Again, a crashing HYG doesn’t mean short broad-based equities. Why? Fractal flows tell me not to. SPYSPY is overrunning TRADE. A break of it could mean we see that spike in the VIX. That does not mean it would be outright bearish. TREND is still bullish and below the low end of the RANGE. It will be interesting to see how we close Friday in the new month and quarter. QQQQQQ is stronger. Why? Its concentration in tech and AI just got its bubble back. Major tailwind for equities going into Q4. Sector SignalsSMHAre you reallocated to the AI bubble? Fractal flows showed you in real time when and where to act. NVDADoesn’t get much cleaner than this. Hold bullish TREND, flip TRADE, then launch off TRADE to the top end of RANGE. IGVI wasn’t adding to IGV yesterday. I was adding SMH. Why? Fractal math. Today IGV has the same fractal instructions: hold unless TRADE breaks, then reduce. No exit until a break of TREND 5% lower. BUGCybersecurity software was much stronger yesterday and told you to add at the low end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND. SPCXNow everyone that got blown up on the SPCX IPO has sold or bagheld. This is where you come in and buy for Quad 2. Low end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND. XLEI don’t need to know the headlines to manage my positions. Similar Set Signal told me to reduce XLE yesterday. It was down close to 3% after. I couldn’t imagine trying to execute in markets without knowing where TRADE and TREND are in real time across all my tickers. XLVI also reduced my XLV. That doesn’t mean I’m not long, but taking winners down as TRADE climbs and holds bearish TRADE is what the process said to do. In doing so it freed up capital to allocate to tickers like SPCX, which is in bullish TRADE TREND and has been beaten down for the last few months. XLFI will continue to show this chart as a reminder to listen to the fractal math in real time. It got me in and added all the way up. It told me when to reduce and eventually exit. This is the fractal cycle. Did you listen to the fractal instructions? XLYRemember when I was talking about getting long AMZN and XLY? That was 5% ago. Math told you your exit and the place to load up shorts after the flip. Fractal math goes both ways. Nothing is guaranteed and no signal is permanent. That’s why you have to show up and execute daily. The math changes. Your job is to change with it. XLUMath hasn’t changed here, but the signal is telling you to sell some, especially with rates this oversold. Macro MarketsDXYThe dollar is one of the strongest signals in the market and it’s ripping again today. The event was last Monday. Waking up to the dollar ripping day after day shouldn’t be a surprise. This is what happens in freshly formed bullish TRENDs. QATDollar up creates havoc on global equities. Do you have a diversified portfolio? Long and short US and global equities, or are you just long IWM because “Quad 2”? Never forget: it’s the signal, then the Quad. The signal gave you plenty to work with to be printing money right now. COLOBreaks TRADE... price, straight down. TLTHow many people on X are talking end of the world because of rates, but weren’t even positioned for it? That’s a macro tourist. Fade them today and cover a good amount of TLT down here. Never cover more than minimum, but this is a place to go to minimum on its fourth day in a row outside the low end of the RANGE. OilOil futures are starting to crack, rejecting TRADE. Looks just like XLE. The signal is saying reduce as rates sit at their fractal extremes. GLDIn gold? You shouldn’t be. This was five days ago. Math said be short TLT and exit GLD.
BTCA whole lot of nothing going on in Bitcoin. Did you buy the low end of the RANGE two weeks ago? Did you sell some after the two-day 13% rip? Do you have orders waiting at 78k if we touch the low end of the RANGE? If you have access to the full fractal math, all of those should have been executed and obvious. Stop trading headlines and start executing the math. Similar Set Signal turns the same chaos everyone else panics over into a daily map: TRADE, TREND, RANGE, and the exact places to add, reduce, fade, and reallocate—across VIX, rates, credit, sectors, and macros—in real time. The difference is not another opinion. It’s going from “I hope Quad 2 works” to knowing when to buy the beaten-down names, when to fade the tourists, and when to free capital from the names that already did their job. That’s how you stop reacting and start printing through the close of Q3 and into Q4. Get Similar Set Signal. Show up. Execute. Change with the math and have the best Quarter of you're career, stop waiting comes with 90 days risk free. Similar Set Signal puts the full fractal math on every ticker you follow. 90 Day 100% Money-Back Guarantee
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. What a day in the markets. It’s a humbling experience to see how catastrophic today has been for some people—but the Similar Set Signal had me positioned exactly where I needed to be so I wasn’t exposed to it. November 3, Election Day...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. I was beating the drum on “wait until after the midterms to see what the machine looks like.” Today is making some big moves. That being said, the signal had you positioned for a big day in everything besides Oil. Let’s review it all. VIX...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. It’s Election Day and not much has changed, so I’m going to keep this one short. As an overview, VIX, MOVE, HYG, and SPY are all signaling Quad 4. VIX MOVE HYG SPY Shorts like DRAM and QTUM should have been added on the bounce at the top end of...