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"Macro signals are turning more cautious beneath the rally" — Keith McCullough
I see so many people coping on X about missing this rally with “but the breadth.” Okay, so don’t be long those signals. It’s as simple as that. The structure underneath might not be broadening, but that doesn’t mean every signal is bearish. When I see stuff like this it reminds me how grateful I am to have the Similar Set Signal. It told me exactly where to be long for this rally. VIXThose people complaining clearly don’t have an accurate signaling process for the VIX. The market made a big move the day after the rate hike and VIX has been straight down ever since. Thursday, September 17, 2026 VIX tested a bullish volatility breakout but FAILED. The signal was clear. The question is what did you own? MOVEBond volatility is still bullish, but bond volatility isn’t equity volatility. This is signaling lower for bonds, which can be seen as a Quad 2 signal (inflation higher for longer). HYGCredit is still bearish TREND, but that explains the breadth. It doesn’t mean indices and large caps are bearish signals. SPYSPY never broke bearish TREND and now has reclaimed bullish TRADE. This is why you reduce, not exit, on bearish TRADE breaks. IWMSmall caps do not have the same signal. MAGSMAGS (and even larger concentration than SPY) was even stronger than SPY, signaling to be concentrated before the breadth was a narrative. Gotta love high-accurate fractal math. Sector SignalsSMHHeadwind to Tailwind. AI just got their bubble back. This is the first time since July 24th Semis have been bullish TRADE TREND—a very important detail as X whines. NVDANVDA going for new ATHs and never broke TREND (volatility-adjusted overrun twice). IGVSoftware, Communications, and AI are bullish TRADE TREND. Expect the Nasdaq to keep being the best index with that concentration vs SPY and IWM. AAPLMentioned the MAGS… AAPL, META, MSFT, and GOOGL all showing bullish TRADE TREND. “Diversifying” isn’t spreading risk if the ticker isn’t in bullish TRADE TREND (IWM, for example). METAMSFTGOOGLXLETaking some heat on XLE?
QTUMDespite IWM struggling, QTUM just flipped back to bullish TRADE TREND. All good signs for Tech Growth concentration. XLUImagine bag-holding XLU because you thought “risk off,” so you bought anti-beta sectors. I don’t know how people invest without fractal math. Big winner to the downside continues to win. Macro MarketsDXYDollar up means red market, normal. Yes, it’s not a good sign. No, it doesn’t matter right now. That’s why each ticker gets its own signal and fractal instructions. The math will lead you to the exact right move at the exact right time. It’s not a “historical correlation”—it’s a real-time tool. EUROThe math can change quick. Follow the fractal math in real time and you won’t have to bag-hold anymore. QATBullish DXY means look for global equity shorts. This was a short before the bullish breakout in the DXY. Now it’s accelerating to the downside. TLTInflation trade looks like it’s about to get another leg (TLT down from bearish TRADE TREND at the top end of the RANGE). COMFlip side of short TLT is long Commodities. First touch of the low end of the RANGE after flipping bullish TRADE TREND. Remember what Bitcoin just did with that? BTCHere's your reminder.. Stop guessing. Stop coping after the move already happened. Similar Set Signal gives you the exact ticker-level fractal instructions—when to be long, when to reduce, when to stay out—so you catch the rally instead of watching it from the sidelines. Subscribe now and let the math put you in the right seats before the next narrative even starts. Try today for 90 days risk free 👇 Similar Set Signal puts the full fractal math on every ticker you follow. 90 Day 100% Money-Back Guarantee
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No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. What a day in the markets. It’s a humbling experience to see how catastrophic today has been for some people—but the Similar Set Signal had me positioned exactly where I needed to be so I wasn’t exposed to it. November 3, Election Day...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. I was beating the drum on “wait until after the midterms to see what the machine looks like.” Today is making some big moves. That being said, the signal had you positioned for a big day in everything besides Oil. Let’s review it all. VIX...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. It’s Election Day and not much has changed, so I’m going to keep this one short. As an overview, VIX, MOVE, HYG, and SPY are all signaling Quad 4. VIX MOVE HYG SPY Shorts like DRAM and QTUM should have been added on the bounce at the top end of...