Tuesday, September 22, 2026


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"Macro signals are turning more cautious beneath the rally" — Keith McCullough

I see so many people coping on X about missing this rally with “but the breadth.”

Okay, so don’t be long those signals. It’s as simple as that. The structure underneath might not be broadening, but that doesn’t mean every signal is bearish. When I see stuff like this it reminds me how grateful I am to have the Similar Set Signal. It told me exactly where to be long for this rally.

VIX

Those people complaining clearly don’t have an accurate signaling process for the VIX. The market made a big move the day after the rate hike and VIX has been straight down ever since.

​Thursday, September 17, 2026​

VIX tested a bullish volatility breakout but FAILED. The signal was clear. The question is what did you own?

MOVE

Bond volatility is still bullish, but bond volatility isn’t equity volatility. This is signaling lower for bonds, which can be seen as a Quad 2 signal (inflation higher for longer).

HYG

Credit is still bearish TREND, but that explains the breadth. It doesn’t mean indices and large caps are bearish signals.

SPY

SPY never broke bearish TREND and now has reclaimed bullish TRADE. This is why you reduce, not exit, on bearish TRADE breaks.

IWM

Small caps do not have the same signal.

MAGS

MAGS (and even larger concentration than SPY) was even stronger than SPY, signaling to be concentrated before the breadth was a narrative. Gotta love high-accurate fractal math.

Sector Signals

SMH

Headwind to Tailwind. AI just got their bubble back. This is the first time since July 24th Semis have been bullish TRADE TREND—a very important detail as X whines.

NVDA

NVDA going for new ATHs and never broke TREND (volatility-adjusted overrun twice).

IGV

Software, Communications, and AI are bullish TRADE TREND. Expect the Nasdaq to keep being the best index with that concentration vs SPY and IWM.

AAPL

Mentioned the MAGS… AAPL, META, MSFT, and GOOGL all showing bullish TRADE TREND. “Diversifying” isn’t spreading risk if the ticker isn’t in bullish TRADE TREND (IWM, for example).

META

MSFT

GOOGL

XLE

Taking some heat on XLE?

  1. Did you enter in Aug 7th and add on Aug 26th?
  2. Did it break TRADE? No. So do nothing unless it's add more today.

QTUM

Despite IWM struggling, QTUM just flipped back to bullish TRADE TREND. All good signs for Tech Growth concentration.

XLU

Imagine bag-holding XLU because you thought “risk off,” so you bought anti-beta sectors. I don’t know how people invest without fractal math. Big winner to the downside continues to win.

Macro Markets

DXY

Dollar up means red market, normal. Yes, it’s not a good sign. No, it doesn’t matter right now. That’s why each ticker gets its own signal and fractal instructions. The math will lead you to the exact right move at the exact right time. It’s not a “historical correlation”—it’s a real-time tool.

EURO

The math can change quick. Follow the fractal math in real time and you won’t have to bag-hold anymore.

QAT

Bullish DXY means look for global equity shorts. This was a short before the bullish breakout in the DXY. Now it’s accelerating to the downside.

TLT

Inflation trade looks like it’s about to get another leg (TLT down from bearish TRADE TREND at the top end of the RANGE).

COM

Flip side of short TLT is long Commodities. First touch of the low end of the RANGE after flipping bullish TRADE TREND. Remember what Bitcoin just did with that?

BTC

Here's your reminder..

Stop guessing. Stop coping after the move already happened. Similar Set Signal gives you the exact ticker-level fractal instructions—when to be long, when to reduce, when to stay out—so you catch the rally instead of watching it from the sidelines. Subscribe now and let the math put you in the right seats before the next narrative even starts. Try today for 90 days risk free 👇


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