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VIX

The pitches to take advantage of were Sept 17 and October 1. Now, with most tickers at the top end of the RANGE, you should be having some runners batted in—not trying to swing for the fences here with the VIX approaching the low end of the RANGE.

MOVE

Bond volatility is still firmly in a bullish TRADE TREND, but with it in the middle of the RANGE, it’s anyone’s guess where it wants to go from here. After reading this newsletter daily, you should be able to instantly tell whether your pitch is here or not. (Bullish TRADE TREND at the low end of the RANGE, or bearish TRADE TREND at the top end of the RANGE, are your “fastballs.”)

HYG

Credit was in free fall, yet the VIX couldn’t flip to a bullish TREND. So the question was: what if it stopped going down—how would markets react? Just as expected in a bullish TRADE TREND: straight up.

​Friday, October 2, 2026​

QQQ

Did you hit your fastball the market gave you in September? Now it’s up 7.9% and ready to sell some into people who missed it and are chasing out here.

Sector Signals

IGV

Software is up 6 straight days since the low end of the RANGE.

BUG

The Similar Set Signal lets you see what pitch the market is giving in real time. When the VIX is near the low end of the RANGE and tickers you bought on time are up six straight days outside their RANGE, it’s time to sell some—not buy more.

SMH

Ai has the same setup. Sell Some.

DRAM

The signal is saying sell some of SMH and rotate those gains to broadening AI exposure in memory stocks.

QTUM

More sell some signals.

SPCX

You know what to do with this. The question is: what did you do on the green arrow day?

TXG

This is why you sell some at the top end of the RANGE. You never know when a day like this is coming. This is where you get ready to hit the next pitch.

XLE

Energy is up on the day. Does that mean reducing to min was a mistake yesterday? No. Let’s see how this math plays out. You can either be at min, or cut all of it and find a ticker in bullish TRADE and TREND at the low end of the RANGE.

XLV

Healthcare is holding on to a bullish TREND. This is not where I add. This is not a fastball ticker.

CMG

The signal works both ways. This is why the number one rule is: do not hold long positions in bearish TRENDs. Fractal math makes it clear when to exit or short.

XLY

XLY is ready to short today. Short equities while the VIX is in a bearish TRADE TREND and indices are in a bullish TRADE TREND aren’t my favorite setups, but if you need to hedge some long exposure, these are the signals to do it in. It all depends on your portfolio exposure and preference. Selling some across the board at the top end of the RANGE is another way to reduce long exposure.

XLU

XLU is giving you the same fastball setup to the downside as XLY. Notice today the market is giving you similar signals to reduce long exposure. I don’t predict when to do it. I wait for the market to give me the pitches.

Macro Markets

DXY

The signal told you to take some DXY-correlated exposure down yesterday. Today DXY is rolling over at the top end of the RANGE.

​Monday, Oct 5th, 2026​

QAT

Hence the bounce in global equity tickers like QAT.

TLT

Bonds are starting to stabilize, which is why I already went to min in TLT. When the market works like this, make sure to take a good amount off the table.

Oil

Don’t chase XLE when oil looks like this. Don’t short either when signals look like this too. There are plenty of tickers in fastball formation to play. (DRAM, TXG, XLY, XLU)

GLD

A down dollar is helping support GLD. This isn’t a long signal. I own zero gold, and that signal isn’t new.

BTC

Got some movement on BTC TRADE. Bitcoin volatility has dropped significantly (consolidating RANGE). The math is saying expect another push higher as long as TRADE holds, which is at $81,262.

Stop guessing which pitch the market just threw. Similar Set Signal shows you the fastball in real time—bullish TRADE TREND at the low end of the RANGE, or bearish TRADE TREND at the top end—so you sell some into the chase, rotate the gains, and stay ready for the next one instead of swinging late. Subscribe to Similar Set Signal and start hitting the pitches the market is actually giving you.

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