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Tuesday, October 13, 2026
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Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook
More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. Yesterday was not the day to aggressively buy dips—that was signaled in the math. The key themes were to increase rate-sensitive shorts like TLT, GLD, and XLU (continued today ahead of CPI tomorrow), reduce high-beta TRADE breakdowns like SMH and QTUM, and stay long the strongest signals like IGV and MAGS. Today the signal continues to point to more of the same. VIXNo panic in the VIX. This is not the start of a bear market; it is an interim dip. Depending on the signal on the tickers you own, it could still feel like a bear market. VIX still has some room to the top end of the RANGE for a CPI panic print. MOVEBond volatility is sitting right at the low end of the RANGE before CPI. This is a great place to increase rate-sensitive exposure. Remember, rising rates have been bullish for U.S. equities. When rates stop going up, that is when this interim dip started. That is not a narrative—that is a fact. HYGCredit is stabilizing. It just had a move from the top end of the RANGE to the low end of the RANGE, but now the low end is making a higher low in the new Quad 2 Q4. Interesting. QQQThis panic was foreseeable. Now is the time to buy the dip again after perfectly timing the absolute Quad 2 top five days ago. MAGSMega caps have not offered a low-end-of-the-RANGE dip since flipping bullish back in August. AAPLApple did. Now it is at the top end of the RANGE. Again, ask yourself: what do you own? And what total percentage of your overall portfolio is that ownership? Sector SignalsSMHA good example of that is SMH. Do you have multiple semi stocks and DRAM plus SMH, or is it just SMH? Depending on that answer, it should determine what you do with this TRADE break signal. I have reduced to just one full allocation to SMH so even if TREND breaks, it is not going to tank my entire book. I still like tickers that have TREND well below the low end of the RANGE. IGVSoftware is another exposure to have. When it was at the top end of the RANGE I was selling some, so now I can broaden exposure to a sector signaling bullish TRADE TREND but with a ticker at the low end of the RANGE like CRWD. CRWDThis newsletter is not here to manage your portfolio for you. It is here to show you how to use the process with access to the full fractal math. This is just one example. It is on you to get the math on your screen and start executing on your tickers. QTUMQTUM is very similar to how SMH is performing. I am not overly exposed by having two tickers that look like this. I am holding through the TRADE break because TREND is below the low end of the RANGE and it has gone straight down since selling some on the Quad 2 peak. If it breaks TREND I do not get that same luxury—that is when I exit without debate, because the number one rule is not to hold bearish TRENDs. This still looks primed for a bounce. SPCXNot reducing more (already sold some at the top end of the RANGE on the Quad 2 cycle peak) until it breaks TRADE. If it does break TRADE I will not be adding at the low end of the RANGE because it will be bullish TREND, bearish TRADE. This is how I use the full fractal math. CMGChipotle made the headlines as of late and the Signal absolutely nailed this as it pumped from the low end of the RANGE to outside the top end in one day. Then it closed right at RANGE in bearish TRADE TREND then tanked to new lows. These are the type of signals you should have put on when the market was saying take down long exposure after the initial Quad 2 pump. XLUXLU is losing TRADE. What I am doing with this is reduce this ticker some and reallocate to stronger rate-sensitive exposure like TLT. Reiterating: breaking TRADE does not mean exit—it means reduce. With the MOVE and TLT at strong positions, I am reallocating that capital into a stronger rate-sensitive play. Macro MarketsTLTStronger signal. Bearish TRADE TREND with RANGE well below both fractal duration dots. The math is very straightforward with its instructions if you can see the full fractal math in real time on your own screen. Notice before yesterday I was just short XLU with TLT at min. Then I added GLD. Now today holding full gold, reducing XLU, and fully allocating to TLT. This is how you move incrementally around the machine that is all saying the same thing -- rates should go higher. DXYDollar continues its dominance. INDAStrong dollar means short global equities. India is the strongest signal for that play, outside the top end of the RANGE this morning in bearish TRADE TREND. GLDGold rolling over before the CPI print (catalyst for rates to go higher, and gold hates higher rates). OilOil holding bullish TREND going into the CPI print. BTCBitcoin looks ready to rip as it held bullish TRADE twice. Similar Set Signal gave the exact level to reallocate at.
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. What a day in the markets. It’s a humbling experience to see how catastrophic today has been for some people—but the Similar Set Signal had me positioned exactly where I needed to be so I wasn’t exposed to it. November 3, Election Day...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. I was beating the drum on “wait until after the midterms to see what the machine looks like.” Today is making some big moves. That being said, the signal had you positioned for a big day in everything besides Oil. Let’s review it all. VIX...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. It’s Election Day and not much has changed, so I’m going to keep this one short. As an overview, VIX, MOVE, HYG, and SPY are all signaling Quad 4. VIX MOVE HYG SPY Shorts like DRAM and QTUM should have been added on the bounce at the top end of...