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Tuesday, August 25, 2026
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"Markets that broaden like this can be brutally frustrating (especially if you're still holding the bags of names that used to drive your returns). They can also be enormously rewarding. The difference between those two outcomes is one thing: are stocks personal relationships or tickers? To the #GoAnywhere investor, they're just tickers." — Keith McCullough
When you have access to the full fractal math, it's much easier to see positions as tickers—not relationships or narratives. VIXNot much has changed from yesterday. Some days there is a lot to execute; others require patience. VIX is at the top end of the RANGE in bearish TRADE TREND for the 6th straight day. Although if you noticed today the RANGE started to roll over to the downside, don’t be surprised to see a 13 handle on the VIX soon. MOVEBond volatility is sitting right at bearish TREND. This is where the math expects it to make the turn for a new low. HYGCredit is quietly breaking into bullish TREND. This is a very good sign after holding bullish TRADE last week. SPYSPY is holding the low end of the RANGE as well, just waiting for a new ATH. QQQDespite AI being weak, QQQ is holding TREND—another good sign this dip is turning. IWMSame signal in small caps. This is where you should be loading up in indices as they are giving you multiple days to accumulate before new ATHs. Sector SignalsDRAMAI has been weak, but that’s because it’s still in bearish TREND. Just as we saw last week with HYG, DRAM is holding bullish TRADE as the low end of the RANGE attempts to get above TRADE. I’m not buying DRAM, but it’s a good sign it’s not in bearish TRADE anymore. NVDANVDA has earnings tomorrow and is sitting at bullish TRADE TREND and the low end of the RANGE. A good earnings report could be what the market needs to bounce to the top end of the RANGE. QTUMThe absolute low in QTUM was exactly Similar Set TRADE and the low end of the RANGE. It’s not magic—it’s extremely accurate fractal math. Want to see it recover TREND in short order. This is why you hold until the math says exit. IGVSoftware is consolidating this new bullish TREND from August 6th at the low end of the RANGE. This is a sector I’d make sure to have plenty of exposure to via indices, sector (IGV), and individual tickers like MSFT, SNOW, NOW. MSFTSNOWNOWXLVHealthcare has outperformed and you absolutely should have seen it in real time. It broke bullish TREND June 4th. XLFSame with Financials. XLEOil is down on the day, bringing XLE near the low end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND. Macro MarketsOilI’d buy XLE over USO, as Oil looks ready to bounce from here. TLTThe bond market is shifting to bullish TRADE for the first time since the breakdown on July 7th. This is a reduce signal and another reason I’d be in energy equities over Oil the asset. DXYThe dollar is holding bearish TRADE and might be done bouncing. A new low would mean the TAIL level is breaking down—another major catalyst for risk assets across the board. DXY TAILWeekly fractal view on DXY. COLOColumbia refuses to have a red day. Things you see in bullish TRADE TRENDs. Question is, did you buy at the low end of the RANGE before the move? GLDGold pressing the top end of the RANGE again. This is why you buy on the 13th WHEN the math instructed you to. Process prevents you from buying up here. If anything, you should be selling SOME if you haven’t already. SLVSilver is following suit. This morning on the open it was near the TREND. Selling some gold and broadening into Silver was the fractal instructions. BTCYes, Bitcoin is overbought. No, it doesn’t mean it has to pull back. With the dollar attempting to break TAIL this week, macro could see another leg higher before a meaningful pullback. That doesn’t mean buy here. Notice the RANGE is expanding, so there’s more room to run higher—and I’d be a buyer of the dip ~$72K as of right now. Stop guessing. Start seeing the exact levels the market respects—before they happen. Subscribe to Similar Set Signal today and turn fractal math into your unfair advantage. Apply the process beyond the newsletter. The newsletter shows you how I use TRADE, TREND and RANGE. Similar Set Signal puts that same signal on every ticker you follow. 90-Day 100% Money-Back Guarantee
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. Today is a reminder not to panic. Don’t chase shorts at the low end of the RANGE. Today is a good time to review how you were positioned for this move BEFORE it happened. You can’t go back and change what already occurred, but you can get the...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. What a day in the markets. It’s a humbling experience to see how catastrophic today has been for some people—but the Similar Set Signal had me positioned exactly where I needed to be so I wasn’t exposed to it. November 3, Election Day...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. I was beating the drum on “wait until after the midterms to see what the machine looks like.” Today is making some big moves. That being said, the signal had you positioned for a big day in everything besides Oil. Let’s review it all. VIX...