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​Monday, August 3, 2026​

The math is changing, so make sure you are changing with it. But in order to change with it, you have to be able to see it in real time. A lot is going on in markets this week.

VIX

VIX broke bearish TRADE TREND last Thursday. Since then, equities have gone straight up.

HYG

Credit is making a move with this rally but still remains bearish TREND. Did you notice the RANGE stopped going down?

​Monday, August 3, 2026​

SPY

SPY and VIX were clear: don’t be short them. The signals to be short were in individual sectors and tickers.

​Monday, August 3, 2026​

QQQ

QQQ did give a short signal yesterday, but there was reason for caution, as mentioned in yesterday’s post, because SPY was signaling the exact opposite. Not every signal will work. If you took a short in QQQ, you should already be out. If you can’t handle a 2.6% move against you in your account, you need to review your position sizing—and don’t baghold this because you want to be right. The math is saying exit.

Sector Signals

SMH

Semis are back to where the math told you to short on July 24th. If you took some profits at the low end of the RANGE, you should be just fine in this short. Be ready to cut if it does what QQQ did today (break bullish TREND).

DRAM

AI memory stocks have some earnings coming out. We’ll see what the math does, but as of right now AI doesn’t have its bubble back.

IGV

This is why it’s so important to see the math in real time. Yesterday’s signal told you to exit software stocks, specifically mentioning PLTR.

​Monday, August 3, 2026​

PLTR

PLTR is up 30% today. Did you cover BEFORE the launch?

TSLA

TSLA was another short I was covering aggressively yesterday because XLY broke bullish TREND. Despite this market ripping, it’s giving you time to collect profits if you were short the right things at the right time.

NFLX

Netflix was another staple short during this correction. Now sitting above TRADE and the market is changing—another short to be collecting profits on today.

RKLB

The space sector is now the strongest short, even including AI. This is one I’m holding on to until the low end of the RANGE.

XLF

Those were the shorts. Now, you didn’t have to predict that growth sectors would flip signals. There were plenty of longs that were in bullish TRADE TREND that have been working and are continuing to work with this equity move.

Financials are making new cycle highs today.

XLV

Did you take some profit at the cycle highs? Now you can buy them back cheaper.

IAK

Same with insurance stocks.

XLRE

Real estate bouncing off the low end of the RANGE and TREND.

Macro Markets

TLT

Were you covering some on three days in a row at the low end of the RANGE?

Oil

Oil is down big again today, and I’m not exposed to it. The signal was weak. I don’t need to catch every move in every market—I just want the strongest signals and execute the math. This math told me to stay away. If you are long Oil, yesterday was the exit.

UUP

The dollar is holding bearish TRADE and was a reduce in correlated dollar assets three days ago. Dollar breaking bearish TRADE was a signal relief could be coming to risk-on assets. The particulars matter, especially in real time.

GLD

Gold was up over a percent today. Covering at the low end of the RANGE yesterday was the fractal instruction.

BTC

Bitcoin is holding bullish TRADE and the low end of the RANGE.

Meanwhile, the Coinbase 24/7 data set flipped TREND. If you want to get long Bitcoin, today on the open was the time to do it. Know your risk and be ready to exit the position if it breaks back bearish, but it’s one worth taking a shot on for me. This is the first time signaling bullish TREND since May 27th. And now the dollar, growth sectors, and indexes are all signaling bullish. When the math changes, you need to change with it.

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