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Thursday, September 25th, 2025
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Welcome back Reader! Pro Tip: If you want bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile How to Read ChartLeft Side - Daily (Similar Set TREND) Right Side - 4HR (Similar Set TRADE) "Instead of giving you talking points, I give you timestamps." - Keith McCullough
Timestamped: Friday, September 19th, 2025 DXY and 2YRThe recent two-day dip in SPY and Gold was driven by a bounce in the USD and the UST 2-Year Yield, which move inversely to these assets. The Similar Set Signal saw this coming. DXYIt’s now testing a TREND breakout. Will it hold on the first try? No guarantees—that’s why you watch and wait. Catalyst that aren’t on the tape yet:
2YRStill in a bearish TREND. If the USD falters and the 2YR holds, we could see another Quad 3 catalyst before Quad 2 takes over. Upcoming Catalysts (Not Yet on the Tape):
GoldIn Quad 2 (DXY up, rates up), Gold struggles due to its inverse correlation with both. With the DXY showing strength, I’m not buying Gold’s dip yet—it’s already made a big move. The time to buy was back on July 28, before the rally. I’m also not selling until it breaks TRADE. Why Similar Set Signal?The Similar Set Signal delivers a clear, objective view of the market, making it simple—but don’t mistake simple for easy. If it were easy, everyone would trade like a pro instead of guessing what’s up or down. Slow down and ask:
These questions are critical, especially when warning signs flash. VIXLast Friday, DXY and 2YR signaled moves. Now, the VIX is sending a conflicting signal, so I’m cautious on this dip. It’s in bullish Similar Set TRADE. Will it hold? Not necessarily. I’m waiting to see if it closes bearish below 16.03. Last time this happened the VIX spiked to 20 on September 2, as called out: Sept 2nd newsletter SPYSPY’s correction is mild, down just -0.8% from this week’s all-time high. Yesterday’s pullback was led by NVDA, AAPL, and GOOGL. The Similar Set Signal says buy the dips in all three—they’re bullish in both TRADE and TREND. Keep an eye on the VIX, but here’s what the tickers signal: NVDABounced off the low end of the range, holding bullish TRADE within TREND. AAPLHigher ATH within bullish TRADE and TREND. Most Bullish. GOOGLBounced off the low end of the range and Similar Set TRADE within bullish TREND. One of the strongest signal I've seen today still 1.7% above TRADE. Investment Grade Credit (LQD)With the VIX in bullish TRADE, diversify by buying bonds at the low end of the range in bullish TRADE and TREND. It’s simple but not always easy in real-time. The Similar Set Signal makes it clear. E-Sports (ESPO)Buy at the low end of the range in bullish TRADE and TREND. Move incrementally. Financials (XLF)Buy at the low end of the range in bullish TRADE and TREND. Move incrementally. Russell 2000 (IWM)The Russell broke TRADE, so focus on stronger tickers with bullish TRADE and TREND for dip-buying. ShortsThe Similar Set Signal works both ways. EWGBearish TRADE and TREND, now at the low end of the range—sell some. CryptoThe Signal said WAIT, and I listened. USDT.D
BitcoinI waited and even added a short to hedge, spotting the move higher last night at the red arrow. This move paid for lifetime access to the Similar Set Signal. This one move paid for LIFETIME access for the Similar Set Signal. SOLYesterday Yesterday’s Signal saved me 10%—I would’ve had to cut the position as it’s now in bearish TREND. This is why you move incrementally in bearish TRADE and look to other tickers like USDT.D in crypto or VIX in equities. It’s never about one signal—it’s the full picture. Ready to trade smarter with clear, timestamped signals?Subscribe to the Similar Set Signal and get every level in real-time to stay ahead of the market. Don’t guess—know when to act. FREE for 30 DAYS
What are customers saying about the Similar Set Signal?Your Signal is already paying off nicelyThis is exactly what all Hedgeye subs are missingWhat a game changerAccelerated my understanding of the process like you can’t believeThis is the tool I needed!For the first time since becoming a Hedgeye sub90 DAY MONEY BACK GUARANTEE
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set “I think financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data… The more the markets are paying attention to what is happening in the real economy… The more financial markets can price...
Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "Repetition is the real edge. The process, the routine, and the daily reps matter more than bold calls or knockout moments." — Keith McCullough The bold calls only happen in hindsight after the...
""Welcome back Reader! How to Read Chart Left Side - Similar Set TREND Right Side - Similar Set TRADE Pro Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. New Similar Set Handbook Confused about what's going on in the newsletter? Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set "The answer to WHEN is still process, not prediction. When Market Structure changes, Risk Range dimensions shift, TRADE breaks, and TREND follows the pattern remembers, the Cycle follows sequence,...