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VIX

Huge day in the VIX and a good reminder why I use volatility-adjusted breaks. VIX closed above TREND, which is important, but that does not mean it is a confirmed bullish TREND in my process. Equity volatility has stabilized today.

MOVE

Bond volatility is still firmly bullish TREND, but the RANGE has made a significant turn after the Fed hike. The market still needs to flip TREND in the MOVE and HYG to confirm risk on. We’ll see as the market develops whether the VIX is leading the way to risk on or lagging risk off. Right now the signals are mixed.

HYG

SPY

Break of TRADE means reduce. Break of TREND means exit. You never got the exit signal, and now SPY is bouncing right where you’d expect it to. This is why it is essential to know both TRADE and TREND on every ticker.

​Wednesday, Sept 16, 2026​

IWM

Small caps do not have the same signal. With the Similar Set Signal you can see the difference in real time.

SPHB

High beta as a factor exposure is still holding bearish TREND. That is important to note because it tells you what factor exposure to hold in equities.

Sector Signals

IGV

Software is holding bullish TREND and consolidating volatility. If the market does recover, this is a sector you want to be holding.

SNOW

This post was prior to me leaving for vacation. The signal got you in and told you to sell when it opened 8% outside the top end of the RANGE on earnings. While most were getting killed in AI, the math told you where to have exposure.

​Thursday, August 27, 2026​

AAPL

Now that the VIX has recovered, owning AAPL is one of the best places to be. When most sectors were telling you to reduce on Sept 8, Apple told you to buy. It is up big. The fractal instructions were to sell some XLV and XLF and rotate into AAPL. Today is not a day to buy more, but sell some on green if you have not done so yet. You do not need me or Keith to tell you what to do when you have the full fractal math on your own screen.

XLE

XLE was the only sector below the low end of the RANGE in bullish TREND, telling you the exact fractal move to make this morning.

XLF

Sell some XLF, buy some AAPL. That was the move Sept 9th. Now XLF is making its decision at TREND.

XLU

Utilities have been a picture-perfect short since the market told you to go risk off in early Sept.

XLP

Break TREND, bounce to TREND. That is where you add shorts. Signal works both ways in real time.

XLY

This is why you exit on bearish TRENDs. It does not matter that it was a great buy a few days prior. This is why you need to know exactly where TREND is and how the market is reacting at those fractal levels.

Macro Markets

DXY

Double failure below bearish TRADE is an immediate-term up signal. DXY exploded on the Fed hike, exactly as the signal was signaling. Now it has a decision to make at the top end of the RANGE and TREND. Until this shows some closes below TREND, I’d be careful adding MORE macro longs like metals and crypto.

​Wednesday, Sept 16, 2026​

GLD

While I’m not adding more to Gold, it isn’t signaling get out either. Just holding my reduced position until the signal becomes more clear.

BTC

Bitcoin is a much stronger signal and is bouncing despite a strong dollar, so holding a full position here. But if the dollar continues actually breaking bullish TREND, BTC will likely head to TREND at $70,447.

TLT

Despite the Fed rate hike, TLT still isn’t at the top end of the RANGE and is holding firm bearish TREND. This has been the macro positioning since July 7th. You don’t have to call anything in markets. Add some shorts at the top end of the RANGE. Reduce if TRADE breaks. Exit if TREND breaks. Markets get so much easier when you can see TRADE and TREND on every ticker.

In today’s early look, Keith emphasizes the importance of knowing TRADE and TREND for all your positions. I agree. That has always been the thing Hedgeye subscribers were missing (including me) until I built the Similar Set Signal. Now I show you some levels daily in this newsletter, but with the Similar Set Signal you get TRADE and TREND on all of YOUR tickers and any tickers you can think of after you subscribe.
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