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Number one reason why people aren't successful in the market is because they try to make "sense" of the market, but the market trades on flows, not logic. Logic usually comes AFTER the price has already moved. So if you're confused as to why the market just ripped despite all the negative headlines, it's because headlines aren't forward looking. The signal is.

Why are the flows showing bullish TRADE TREND? One, you don't need a reason why. But I'll give you one here. The market is moving out of a Quarterly Quad 4 and into a Quad 2. Here's the economic outlook based on Hedgeye's research:

Monthly Quad count of 2, 1, 2, 2 aligns with quarterly data of Quad 2, which isn't always the case. That's as bullish as it gets from an economic standpoint. Of course the signal needs to align with it. That's where you allocate to.

VIX

The market is currently historically uncorrelated, so despite bonds and credit showing risk indicators, US equities look ready to continue this rally based on fractal math flow.

VIX broke back to bearish TRADE TREND last Thursday and today is rejecting and confirming bearish TRADE with a lot of room to the low end of the RANGE that wasn't there to start this week.

MOVE

Bond volatility exploded to the upside as TLT got body-bagged yesterday. (Should be short TLT capturing this move.) So while everyone is panicking that rates are exploding, US equity flows are gaining strength. The narrative that higher rates = bearish is fractally false as of today.

HYG

US markets aren't worried about the credit market. You shouldn't be either. And if you are, then shorting HYG at the beginning of the month was the move, not being bearish on US equity bullish TRENDs.

SPY

Monday SPY broke back to bullish TRADE TREND, ran to the top end of the RANGE, and is now bouncing / confirming bullish TRADE is holding with room to run to the top end of the RANGE, which is sloping up to new ATHs. Nothing about this chart is bearish in the current fractal snapshot.

QQQ

As I mentioned earlier this week, the concentration of growth tech are the strongest signals in the market, along with AI reclaiming its bubble. Not surprising that the Nasdaq dip didn't even make it to TRADE.

MAGS

Mag 7 has an even stronger signal than either index, as its low end of the RANGE is almost above both TRADE and TREND. If you are currently broadly bearish or scared about this market, it's because you aren't reading the fractal flows.

Sector Signals

IGV

Software has been consolidating in bullish TRADE TREND near ATHs. You should be holding software broadly since the flip on August 6th and expecting new ATHs going into month end as the market shifts to Quad 2 on a monthly and Quarterly level.

SMH

April 7th, July 24th, September 21st. Those are your key fractal dates. The AI bubble is back. Apparently they like rising rates. Those really smart people are going to look really dumb if bullish TREND holds going into year end.

NVDA

NVDA reclaiming bullish TRADE TREND. Notice the low tick of the day was 221. Similar Set TRADE is 220.99.

SPCX

SPCX launched on June 12th. Now there's enough data to model it fractally. This is the first buy signal (low end of RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND) since inception. It has 55% to new ATHs heading into Quad 2.

UFO

Do note that the Space sector is still signaling bearish TRADE TREND, but it could be worth a flier on SPCX.

XLE

XLE continues its rally off the low end of the RANGE. But note that TRADE is climbing, so price will need to keep climbing with it to prevent a TRADE break and a REDUCE signal. Something to keep an eye on.

PBR

Other oil tickers look stronger, but are all correlated.

CRAK

Strongest signal. Could have REDUCE / exit XLE and rotated into CRAK at the low end of the RANGE this morning.

GSL

We covered shipping yesterday. Today GSL is still a good buy if you have free-floating capital.

XLF

Financials are down 2.66% after breaking TREND. Did you see it? Did you execute your exit? That should be a source of funds to allocate to SPCX and/or GSL.

XLV

Reducing XLV? Signal says to. More free capital to move into other plays is the play today.

XLU

Short of the summer keeps printing.

Macro Markets

DXY

This is how fractal flows work. Run to a fractal duration, decide whether to hold or break, then accelerate. DXY is still accelerating. Doesn't mean buy here. Time to make the DXY move was Monday. Next move will be at the low end of the RANGE after the RANGE climbs past TREND.

COLO

Look at that exit. Just following the fractal flows.

Yesterday

TLT

Got our leg down. Fractal math made it abundantly clear.

Tuesday

COM

Inflation trade.

Will this 100% work? No. But 100% it's a great place to have capital.

GLD

I can expect inflation trades and own zero gold. This is what the fractal gods are telling me. I don't need a logical reason why that doesn't make sense. I just follow the fractal flows.

BTC

But I do own a lot of Bitcoin right now, and from a cost basis below RANGE, TRADE, and TREND. A REDUCE signal won't come until sub 73k. When you execute with the signal, you can see just how small of a pullback that was (noise) and from a place it was expected (top end of the RANGE).

It's good to be back, and I'm grateful for every one of you that reads this. But this newsletter is not a substitute for owning the signal. If you want to start performing in markets, you need Similar Set Signal on your screen.It comes with a 90-day money-back guarantee so you can see the difference in your P&L and justify why this is the best long-term investment you can make. Making money in markets for the wrong reasons is not sustainable. This tool will generate so much more than $3k over your lifetime in markets. If not, ask for your money back. You'll get it the same day, no questions asked.

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