No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Thursday, October 1, 2026
|
""Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook
More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile.
"Lesson is preparation over prediction: use a repeatable risk management process across stocks, sectors and fixed income so you already know how to respond when market conditions change."— Keith McCullough
VIXTuesday was planned for this exact scenario. There were already plenty of buys at the low end of the RANGE earlier this week, and I'm still bullish from here until VIX TREND breaks. I cannot predict if VIX will hold its bearish TREND or not, but what I can do is wait and watch. If we start to close above VIX TREND today and tomorrow, I'll be reducing and grossing down as signals deteriorate. Alternatively, this could be the absolute bottom and the start of the Quad 2 monthly quarterly run. Math will tell me which one in real time. Watch 17.34 on closes for the next few days. MOVEBond volatility is still firmly in trending volatility. Bessent is coming in today with $6 billion at 12–1 CT, and we'll see what that does to the signal. TLT is extremely oversold. HYGCredit is in free fall and VIX can't get above TREND. When charts look like this, it's not time to get bearish—the move is at peak hysteria. September 1st is when you get bearish. SPYSPY is overrunning TRADE. Based on the volatility-adjusted process, it won't officially break TRADE until it gets 1.2% lower from that level, which sits below TREND, while the low end of the RANGE is above. This is a dip into a strong fractal buy zone. Again, the important number to watch is VIX TREND into the close today. QQQI'm only exposed to QQQ in terms of indexes, because its signal is much stronger—the low end of the RANGE crosses above TRADE in a bullish TREND. I analyze SPY, but that doesn't mean I need capital placed there. Sector SignalsIGVAlongside QQQ, certain sectors are holding bullish TRADE and TREND during this Quad 2 panic. These are the tickers you want to be holding. They will give you time to reduce from a position of strength if VIX continues its path toward flipping bullish TREND. BUGEven better software signal here. SMHNothing bearish about the AI sector ticker. In fact, it's gaining strength today as the low end of the RANGE crosses above fractal dimensions. DRAMSame with Ai memory sector. QTUMSame with Quantum sector. AAPLApple is the ticker to buy today, not SPY. SPCXSpaceX made a 5% push off the low end of the RANGE. Trimming some here and rotating into AAPL is the fractal instruction. BWETOld enough to remember when shipping was at the low end of the RANGE two weeks ago? Now it's up 30%. Taking some profits while the market decides if it wants to hold or flip VIX is the fractal instruction for today. Wednesday, September 23, 2026 XLEEnergy is bouncing, but I already reduced and rotated into stronger signals. Just because it's bouncing doesn't mean it is a buy. The signal is deteriorating as the top end of the RANGE comes in for a cross below bearish TRADE. That doesn't mean it has to go down, but it does mean you should have less exposure to it. XLVSame view on XLV. What got you out at the big lower high in healthcare? Similar Set Signal fractal math. It's always obvious in hindsight. The harder part is executing the instructions in real time. And make no mistake—the instructions were there. Now the question is whether it will hold TREND. This is why QQQ and tech sectors are the best longs while XLV, XLF, XLY, and XLU are dragging down the S&P. XLFA dip isn't a dip if it's a bearish TREND. Similar Set Signal makes the difference abundantly clear. XLYXLUMacro MarketsDXYThe dollar is finally fractally overbought. It should start to consolidate after this monster move following the flip to bullish TREND. That should relieve some pressure on rates and credit. COLOColombia was one of the strongest signals in all of global macro. Similar Set Signal nailed the exact day to exit. Now it's flipping TREND, which means it has a chance to accelerate this down move even further. EWYKorea doesn't look like Colombia. In fact, it's strengthening and giving a fractal similar set to the AI sectors, confirming that's where you want to be long. Depending on where you are long, this market is giving you a completely different experience. TLTRates are bouncing. That doesn't mean it's bullish, but it should at least stop going down and let the math catch up before the next wave down. I've been at my minimum here for a few days. OilOil is in no man's land. Not longing or shorting—just reducing if you have long exposure. GLDGold bugs are already in disbelief and doubling down on the inflation trade, which means they think gold has to go up. That's not what the math is saying. Bounces are for shorts, or, if you didn't listen to the signal, a chance to exit completely. Number one rule: don't be long bearish TRENDs. This is why. BTCBitcoin has been in Brownian motion since September 23rd. Markets require patience and discipline. Now the RANGE is catching up with price, strengthening the signal and improving risk-reward to add more. But nothing will ever beat the prior fractal position—the time to add was actually September 10–16 at the low end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE and TREND. This is the math just continuing to work. If you want the same real-time fractal instructions—when to hold strength, when to reduce from a position of strength, and when the math says the dip is a buy versus a trap—subscribe to Similar Set Signal. Stop guessing the close and start executing the process that already told you where to be long, where to trim, and where to stay out. Get it today risk free for the rest of the year with 90 day money back guarantee no questions asked. Similar Set Signal puts the full fractal math on every ticker you follow. 90 Day 100% Money-Back Guarantee
What customers saying about the Similar Set Signal 👇My win percentage has gone roof"Your Signal is already paying off nicelyThis is exactly what all Hedgeye subs are missingWhat a game changerAccelerated my understanding of the process like you can’t believeThis is the tool I needed!For the first time since becoming a Hedgeye subFills in the GapsTip JarIf these free levels helped you make money—or avoid losing it. Send a little back to help keep the daily Signal free: https://similarset.kit.com/products/tips If you have any questions, reply to this email and I'll get back to you! |
Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. What a day in the markets. It’s a humbling experience to see how catastrophic today has been for some people—but the Similar Set Signal had me positioned exactly where I needed to be so I wasn’t exposed to it. November 3, Election Day...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. I was beating the drum on “wait until after the midterms to see what the machine looks like.” Today is making some big moves. That being said, the signal had you positioned for a big day in everything besides Oil. Let’s review it all. VIX...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. It’s Election Day and not much has changed, so I’m going to keep this one short. As an overview, VIX, MOVE, HYG, and SPY are all signaling Quad 4. VIX MOVE HYG SPY Shorts like DRAM and QTUM should have been added on the bounce at the top end of...