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Thursday, July 30, 2026
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Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook
More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. When you look at absolute values, the market is ripping. When you look at it through fractal math, it’s not changing—just bouncing off the low end of the RANGE in bearish TRENDS. Let’s see what’s actually changed on today’s fractal map. VIXVIX finally closed above TREND and with enough strength to break the bearish structure. Now it’s overrunning bullish TRADE TREND, with TRADE going all the way down to 17.91. This isn’t a strong signal either way right now, but before yesterday it was a fairly strong bearish one—so on a rate-of-change basis, it got materially weaker. MOVEMOVE is dancing around TREND as well. Waiting and watching here. Month-end markup is here—seeing how tomorrow and Monday close will bring clarity. HYGSo as volatility shifts a bit, credit has absolute clarity: bounce off the low end of the RANGE in bearish TREND. QQQNasdaq up 3% sounds great… until you see the fractal structure. If it bounces another 2.8%, it’s a great short. S&P 500S&P flipped bearish TRADE TREND, now back at TREND. This isn’t a long signal. Sector SignalsSMHEveryone getting hammered in AI wants their bubble back. Math isn’t giving it to them. Don’t listen to the people saying AI is still “cheap.” Things in bearish TRENDS get cheaper until the math flips. SNDKSandisk is up 24% today, and it hasn’t changed the math one bit. If you got short from where the math told you on July 23rd, it’s still down 21% and RANGE is now inside of TREND, gaining bearish strength. Not a long. MSFTReduce into earnings yesterday? Math flipped bullish TRADE telling you to. Then said to exit completely on the open—4% lower than it is right now. TSLAConsumer Discretionary hasn’t changed. Still needs to bounce another 13% to short the top end of the RANGE. NFLXNetflix remains a short. MAGSSame with the Mag 7, creating headwinds for indexes like the S&P.XLV XLVSell some healthcare outside the top end of the RANGE? You should have—math was clear. Macro MarketsTLTTLT did exactly what the math said it should do: reject the top end of the RANGE in bearish TREND. Now time to sell some at the low end of the RANGE. OilOil is dancing in the middle of the RANGE as the TRADE and TREND are now in the lower half of the RANGE with room to the top end. Again, this isn’t a strong signal (a strong signal is defined as TRADE TREND outside the RANGE), but still one to analyze daily. UUPDollar had the biggest move on the day yesterday but still has the low end of the RANGE to fight to close bearish TRADE, and TREND is still over a percent below RANGE. GLDEven with this move in the dollar, gold is holding bearish TRADE TREND at the top end of the RANGE. Not a long signal. Be patient until the math changes to go long—it’s been a short since March 13th. BTCOnce again, Bitcoin is holding bullish TRADE, keeping it together as this volatility storm hits. Not a long or short until either TRADE or TREND breaks. Stop guessing by subscribing to Similar Set Signal, get the daily fractal maps that cut through the noise, expose the real structure, and put you on the right side of every major move—before the crowd even knows what hit them. Apply the process beyond the newsletter. The newsletter shows you how I use TRADE, TREND and RANGE. Similar Set Signal puts that same signal on every ticker you follow. 90-Day 100% Money-Back Guarantee
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. Today is a reminder not to panic. Don’t chase shorts at the low end of the RANGE. Today is a good time to review how you were positioned for this move BEFORE it happened. You can’t go back and change what already occurred, but you can get the...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. What a day in the markets. It’s a humbling experience to see how catastrophic today has been for some people—but the Similar Set Signal had me positioned exactly where I needed to be so I wasn’t exposed to it. November 3, Election Day...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. I was beating the drum on “wait until after the midterms to see what the machine looks like.” Today is making some big moves. That being said, the signal had you positioned for a big day in everything besides Oil. Let’s review it all. VIX...