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Thursday, August 6, 2026
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"The Quads and the Signal answer different questions: the Quads map the growth and inflation cycle, while the Signal shows what markets are doing now"— Josh Steiner
And right now market signals are changing. VIXVIX changed last Thursday and is holding strong as the low end of the RANGE continues to go lower. MOVEBond volatility just broke back to bearish TREND. Remember April 8th of this year? QQQHere’s a reminder. Today price came within .45% of TREND on the QQQs. I was buying the open here. SPYSPY reached ATHs and still needs to consolidate more. I don’t chase things at the top end of the RANGE. IWMSmall caps also reached ATH and never broke TREND during Quad 4. All the indices are confirming bullish TREND today. SPHBHigh beta is mirroring QQQ, signaling to get long things like Nasdaq and crypto. Sector SignalsDRAMAI memory stocks weren’t signaling long yesterday and were crashing this morning. The math knew where to execute. IGVSoftware is another long signal and is a similar set to Nasdaq and crypto, confirming to buy the dip in these things. XLVAs high beta was breaking out, low beta stocks like healthcare told you to sell some at the top end of the RANGE. IAKInsurance stocks continue to grind higher in bullish TRADE TREND. XLRELow beta real estate is breaking TRADE, signaling to reduce as the low end of the RANGE falls below TREND as well. Market is slowing roating back into high beta/ growth. XLYConsumer Discretionary is signaling the same. XLEDespite oil being in bearish TRADE TREND, energy stocks are signaling bullish TRADE TREND. Be careful with exposure as the macro asset and sectors aren’t signaling the same thing. Macro MarketsTLTAs bond volatility breaks down, reducing some TLT makes sense here near the lows. OilOil is up over 3% today. That doesn’t mean it’s a long. If you’re still holding onto USO, this is a good spot to exit. UUPThe dollar is bouncing today as well, but remains firmly in bearish TRADE. Reducing negatively correlated assets is today’s fractal instruction. GLDGold is a great example of that. If you got short on March 13th like the math said to, you should have been selling some at the low end of the RANGE, then more on the break of TRADE. When the signal changes, change with it. BTCBitcoin on Coinbase is in bullish TRADE TREND for the first time since May 27th. This is your get-long signal. Make sure to position accordingly based on volatility and when it would change, which is 3% below TREND (volatility-adjusted break) at $60,500. Until then, expect up. These aren’t random opinions or lagging headlines. They’re the same clear, rules-based signals that flagged the shifts in VIX, MOVE, high-beta breakouts, sector rotations, and Bitcoin’s first bullish TRADE TREND in months—before the crowd catches on. If you want these exact Similar Set Signals delivered in real time so you can act with the math instead of guessing, subscribe to Similar Set Signal now. The next fractal shift is already forming. Don’t wait for the move to happen then react, move with the market. I won't have time to write a newsletter tomorrow, can you execute without someone else telling you what the market is doing? People with the Similar Set Signal can. Apply the process beyond the newsletter. The newsletter shows you how I use TRADE, TREND and RANGE. Similar Set Signal puts that same signal on every ticker you follow. 90-Day 100% Money-Back Guarantee
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Similar Set Signal
No official affiliation with Hedgeye. Just a power user that wanted to see what Kieth was seeing on his screen Sign up here to see the tickers Kieth talked about on the Macro Show today.
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. Today is a reminder not to panic. Don’t chase shorts at the low end of the RANGE. Today is a good time to review how you were positioned for this move BEFORE it happened. You can’t go back and change what already occurred, but you can get the...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. What a day in the markets. It’s a humbling experience to see how catastrophic today has been for some people—but the Similar Set Signal had me positioned exactly where I needed to be so I wasn’t exposed to it. November 3, Election Day...
Welcome back Reader! If new to the Similar Set Signal newsletter use the free Handbook to get you up to speed. Similar Set Handbook Use Handbook More questions? Drop them on X: @Similar_set Tip: If you need bigger charts use desktop instead of mobile. I was beating the drum on “wait until after the midterms to see what the machine looks like.” Today is making some big moves. That being said, the signal had you positioned for a big day in everything besides Oil. Let’s review it all. VIX...