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VIX

VIX made another run to bearish TRADE with a lot of room to run to the low end of the RANGE and a lot of math to fight through to go higher (TRADE TREND and TRR).

HYG

Not everything is signaling Quad 2, but that doesn’t mean panic. It means short bearish TRENDs and long bullish TRENDs. It’s that simple when you have the full fractal math.

SPY

Bullish TRADE TREND is not a place to get bearish.

IWM

The index you should be bearish on is signaling oversold. Don’t long bearish TRENDs, but if you’re short, the math is saying cover some to start the week of fractal instructions.

Sector Signals

Equities have been straightforward. Remain bullish, but there haven’t been very many “new” entry spots as of recent, which is why it’s so important to follow the fractal math in real time—not when you feel confident the math will work.

IGV

Good example: software. The time to buy was August 6th. Now it’s overrunning TRADE, potentially giving you the first fractal shift since August.

What do I do with this?

Nothing.

It hasn’t broken yet, so no reduce—but not adding either, as it could break TRADE and run to TREND 4.89% lower.

SMH

Semis just flipped back to bullish TRADE TREND. The day to start allocating to a new sector was on that day; today it’s close enough to that point. This is potentially a new allocation to ride into the end of the year as we close out with quarterly and monthly Quad 2s.

Does it have to work? No. That’s why you risk-adjust based on volatility, which means sizing this new position knowing that if it goes 4.3% below TREND it will be a bearish TREND break and you’d exit.

XLF

Everyone wants entries and exits like this. Well, SMH is how it looks in real time. Nothing is ever guaranteed. You just have to have the discipline to execute the math, volatility-adjusted and across asset classes, and you will be in all the best TRENDs in the market.

In three months it’s very likely you’ll look back at the end of September and ask why you didn’t get in when the signal told you to in SMH.

SPCX

Reminder: SPCX is giving a chance to get in for the first time since IPO’ing. Space tech should be thriving in Quad 2.

XLE

XLE is starting to crack fractally. This is where you start to reduce those core positions from back in August and take off new ones from the most recent dips. Shift with the fractal math. Can it still go up? Yes. It’s bullish TREND, and Oil looks strong but this is where you take your winners down, and USO is not XLE.

XLU

Another day and another down XLU. When charts look like this I try to get to min, because eventually they will bounce to the top end of RANGE.

Macro Markets

DXY

The dollar made a big shift after the rate hike. The time to execute on the dollar was last Monday.

Look familiar? It kind of looks like SMH right now, doesn’t it? This is what happens when a ticker flips bullish TREND and holds: price accelerates and you’d wish you acted in real time in hindsight.

COLO

Similar Set Signal gets you in and gets you out. Covered why I exited, not reduced, last week. (It was because of the DXY signal.)

TLT

Macro tourist Monday.

The bond market is freaking out, but it’s the third day outside the low end of the RANGE. It’s not time to get bearish here. This is where you SELL SOME (a good amount) because you got bearish July 7 and reloaded last Tuesday BEFORE the panic.

Also note: higher rates does not = bear market.

All the doomsayers forgot that during the biggest bull market in US history (1995–2000), the 10-year averaged 6.1% with spikes over 7%. In ~1999 alone, as the Fed was hiking rates 175 basis points, Nasdaq had its best year ever, posting gains of 135%. QQQ is currently signaling bullish TRADE TREND. Remember.

Oil

Oil still signaling higher in bullish TRADE TREND.

COM

Commodities going down when rates are ripping is surprising. Doesn’t mean you do anything with this here. Waiting for the top end of the RANGE or a break of TRADE before executing anything, because those are the next steps in the process.

GLD

Biggest loser on the day? Gold. I own zero, but a lot of short TLT. Yes, I expected inflation and gold to do badly. Well, I didn’t—but fractal math did, and I trust the fractal math over my own simple logical reasoning.

Thursday, Sept 24, 2026

BTC

Bitcoin is not gold. Bitcoin’s signal looks ready for Quad 2 with one of the strongest signals in the market.

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Most people wait until a move already looks obvious, then chase it, size it wrong, and exit late. SSS is the opposite: the fractal math tells you when TRADE flips, when TREND is intact, when RANGE is the next target, and when to reduce or add—across equities, sectors, rates, the dollar, commodities, and crypto—before the crowd feels confident.

You don’t need another opinion. You need the same process that already flagged SMH, DXY, TLT, and BTC in real time. Get the signals. Follow the math. Be in the TRENDs that actually pay.

Similar Set Signal puts the full fractal math on every ticker you follow.