Monday, Oct 5th, 2026


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Not a lot of signal change from last week, just a continuation of what the math was already telling you to execute. Review last post here.

VIX

No panic in the VIX. It is testing and respecting highly accurate fractal levels. Bearish TRADE TREND, with room down to the low end of the RANGE.

MOVE

The bond market is still in a volatility storm. For the “really smart” people shorting stocks because rates are going higher, it is not going well, and it is getting worse for them daily as equities gain strength.

HYG

Credit is stabilizing, but the signal is still very bearish. Stocks do not care right now. Why? I do not know, and I do not care. Just follow the fractal math.

QQQ

Are you fully positioned and making money with these new ATHs in the Nasdaq? Fractal math absolutely instructed you to be.

Sector Signals

IGV

Software is riding the top end of the RANGE and attempting to make new Quad 2 cycle highs.

SMH

The low end of the RANGE in semis is now above where Similar Set Signal told you to get long the AI bubble again. Markets do not let you go back in time. You have to execute in real time, before the move is obvious. Nothing to do here. Not selling some, not buying more.

QTUM

You could be selling some QTUM, but this is a new bullish TREND, and these are the best core position entries you will find in Quad 2 (green arrow). Not trimming too much, and not much on sale to rotate into at the moment. Sometimes I just ride the volatility when the signal is this fresh.

SPCX

Monster move in SPCX. Up 15% since it was brought up in the newsletter. This was not my call. It was me reading the fractal math. I could not tell you why it is going up beyond this: it was at the low end of the RANGE, in a bullish TRADE TREND, at the low end of the RANGE for the first time since IPO. That was all I needed. Sure, you could find a sexy narrative online for why, but that is not my process.

XLE

This is where I reduce more if I have not already. Top end of the RANGE in a bearish TREND is a great spot to cut exposure.

XLV

This is a preview of what can happen in XLE. The red circle is where XLE is today.

XLF

If you want a preview of what XLV could look like if it breaks TREND here, this is it. The red circle is where XLV is now.

Macro Markets

DXY

The dollar is still relentless, but it is overbought, so taking some exposure down in highly correlated assets was the move this morning at the top end of the RANGE.

TLT

Nothing to do here. I am at my minimum on TLT, and it continues to work.

Oil

Another reason to reduce XLE today. Oil looks weak. It already respected bearish TRADE, and TREND is now inside its RANGE. This is a weakening bullish TREND signal.

GLD

Gold still sucks. The low end of the RANGE is heading lower, making more room for price to run lower.

BTC

Bitcoin is consolidating its RANGE well above TRADE and TREND. This is outright bullish. No, it does not mean you cannot get a red day tomorrow to the low end of the RANGE, around $83K. The last entry was down at $73K, and the math has improved significantly since.

The difference between watching these moves and being in them is whether you act while the fractal math is still early, not after the narrative makes the trade feel obvious. Similar Set Signal is built for that window: clear TRADE and TREND reads, RANGE levels, and the exact spots to add, hold, or cut before the move is already gone. If you want the same process that had you long the AI bubble, positioned for Nasdaq ATHs, and trimming the weak trends while they were still at the top of the RANGE, subscribe to Similar Set Signal and start executing with the math instead of chasing the story.


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