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The market isn’t as simple as bullish or bearish, or Quad 3 or Quad 4, but the math simplifies into simple, clear instructions. The important part is that those instructions can change daily, so you must have the discipline to change with them.

VIX

Last Wednesday, VIX was heading into a volatility storm. By the end of the week it closed bearish TRADE TREND, and now it’s smooth sailing to the low end of the RANGE. That was a dramatic change, but one the math laid out clearly.

MOVE

Not so much in the MOVE. This signal is increasing in strength as the RANGE climbs, potentially over TREND soon.

HYG

Credit still isn’t buying this rally, but the low end of the RANGE stopped going down for the moment—which is a particular detail to notice.

QQQ

Surprised by this bounce? The math wasn’t. It’s run right to TRADE and TREND. Do note that those levels are inside the RANGE, so not as strong as it could be. But this is the first Fractal Signal official to fire: get short today.

​Thursday, July 30, 2026​

SPY

SPY has been stronger and aligns with the VIX. VIX and SPY told you not to short the index into last week’s closes. Now QQQ and SPY are giving conflicting signals. That alone is reason to be careful in either direction here. Sometimes doing nothing is the signal.

Sector Signals

That was the broad equity overview, but when you dive deeper into the individual sectors the math gets stronger.

SMH

AI still doesn’t have its bubble back. That doesn’t mean it can’t keep bouncing from the middle of the RANGE. WHERE and WHEN you make moves is extremely important. Math told you to get short on July 24th from 5% higher. Today I’m just waiting and watching, holding that position—not taking some profits or adding more—because that’s what the math says to do.

DRAM

Same with DRAM.

UFO

The space sector is one of the few still holding strong bearish signals like AI, so staying short things like RKLB. Remember, individual stocks have more variance. Using sector ETFs gives you a basket of highly correlated stocks. If you’re getting whipped around during this Quad shift/earnings season, use more ETFs over stocks.

IGV

Most sectors don’t look like AI anymore. Software broke TRADE back on July 27th, telling you to reduce and stop shorting. That started this 6-day uptrend, and now price is above TREND. That doesn’t mean I’d long here outside the top end of the RANGE with TREND right below it, but it does mean I’m not holding any more software shorts—getting out of MSFT last week and PLTR today.

XLY

This is why SPY is breaking TREND while QQQ stays bearish. On a sector level we’re seeing a lot of them break back to bullish TREND. This gives you reason to cover shorts that are still down a ton, like TSLA, before its signal flips and while you’re still way up in the position. If the rest of the sector is rallying, it’s likely TSLA will bounce too.

XLV

Healthcare has been a staple long during this shift and continues to hold.

IAK

Same with insurance stocks.

XLF

Same with financials. If you’re struggling in this market, check what the math said to do, how strong the signal was, and whether you were exposed only to single stocks or a basket of stocks.

Macro Markets

So that was an overview of the equity market, but US equities are only one part of the entire machine.

TLT

TLT has been a great short and is doing exactly what the math said it should be doing. Bonds are the low-volatility asset, so they should be one of your biggest positions to equal-weight volatility across the portfolio.

Oil

This is why I stayed away in Oil. One, headlines are driving this market. Two, the signal was very weak as TREND and price sat in the middle of the RANGE. Math told you to steer clear.

UUP

The dollar is a good example of the math changing in real time. It told you when to buy the dip versus reduce based on TRADE and RANGE. You should be reducing all dollar-correlated assets on this signal—not buying the dip like back on July 15th.

GLD

Gold is a dollar-correlated asset to be reducing short exposure at the low end of the RANGE as the dollar breaks TRADE.

BTC

Bitcoin should have already been reduced after breaking TRADE, but you can reduce more at the low end of the RANGE as it holds TRADE and the dollar loses its TRADE.

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