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The Similar Set Signal allows you to see every fractal incremental change in real time. Let’s review what changed today.

VIX

The VIX isn’t so much changing as it’s confirming bearish TRADE TREND and holding the top end of the RANGE. The change this week should be that price will be at the low end of the RANGE versus the top end of the RANGE like it is today.

MOVE

No change in bond volatility. Remains bearish.

HYG

Credit held bullish TRADE and the big change in this signal would be if it can close above TREND at 79.75.

SPY

SPY is the inverse of the VIX. Change should be to the top end of the RANGE—this is WHERE you should be buying from. First time at the low end of the RANGE after a new ATH in bullish TRADE TREND.

QQQ

Nasdaq is a bit weaker as it has more AI-concentrated components and those signals aren’t telling you to go long yet, but the composite is still signaling hold on to QQQ. If AI turns around, Nasdaq will outperform SPY.

IWM

Last week I was buying all three—SPY, QQQ, and small caps—and that remains true today. Patience is required in these, as nothing has changed fractally. They are all signaling they should be high by the end of the week.

Sector Signals

SMH

Semis are losing TRADE and never broke bullish TREND—that’s why last week I wasn’t buying them. If you wanted to adjust your portfolio based on this signal, I’d sell QQQ and reallocate to SPY and IWM instead.

SPHB

High beta as a factor exposure is weak across the board today but looks similar to the QQQ signal, still holding bullish TRADE TREND at the low end of the RANGE. The incremental change today is that the low end of the RANGE is now below TREND. This needs to turn quickly, as of right now momentum is rate of change weakening.

QTUM

This is why QTUM is underperforming. Still holding on to this until a close below TRADE. If all of your focus is on one red position it means you are too big in the position and not diversified across sectors and assets. It’s just one ticker—if it breaks, cut it and move on to the next move.

IGV

Software was a fractal buy position, so last week I mentioned broadening exposure to individual stocks within software. Those two were MSFT and SNOW.

MSFT

Microsoft is starting this week by making new weekly highs, bouncing off the low end of the RANGE in bullish TRADE TREND.

SNOW

Snow had a big day on Friday and now is consolidating, making higher lows, ready to rip when the market (SPY) runs to the top end of its RANGE.

AMZN

AMZN is green on the day, holding bullish TRADE TREND, ready to rip to new ATHs. When the market is calm is the time to buy. Now just have patience and wait to either sell some at ATH or, if the signal breaks, cut it. Keep it simple and know your next move before it happens. That’s a process, and executing that process will keep you making consistently good decisions instead of reacting to headlines or emotions.

V

Own some Visa? The process said to buy financials on the 18th. If you bought indexes, MSFT, SNOW, AMZN, and V, you shouldn’t be hyperfixated on what QTUM is doing today.

​Tuesday, August 18, 2026​

XLV

Healthcare is holding up just fine. Did you sell some last week to reallocate into those new positions mentioned above? That’s what the fractal math said to do. Make sure you don’t sell all when in bullish TRADE TREND and don’t chase up here—it’s not a buy today but can still run higher. WHEN is the most important thing in markets, and the math makes the WHEN abundantly clear.

XLU

Don’t forget math works both ways. Selling some Utes on Friday and reallocating was the fractal instructions.

​Tuesday, August 18, 2026​

Macro Markets

DXY

Math said DXY was oversold as it spent 3 days at the low end of the RANGE, so it’s not surprising it’s giving a small bounce today. Next place to watch to see if the Signal changes is at TRADE in the middle of the RANGE at 99.32. As long as it stays below TRADE and TREND it’s at risk of another major dump—and you just saw what that did for macro positions.

DXY TAIL (Weekly Chart)

Zooming out to a weekly duration (TAIL), the dollar is sitting right at that level. A break of this is significant—look what happened last time in March of 2025. This is a major tailwind for macro and US equities. 98.86 is the number you want to mark down to compare to the next few weekly closes.

TLT

Might have some more government intervention with TLT. As of today the math hasn’t changed—still bearish TRADE TREND—but if TRADE breaks that’s the signal to reduce heavily. You should have already taken some profits at the low end of the RANGE, as this short has worked great since July 7th.

Oil

Oil is strengthening as RANGE climbs above its TRADE and TREND. This is why Bessent is intervening in the bond market. Until Oil goes back to bearish TREND it will have significant impact on inflation numbers. I’d rather not play in markets that are headline-centric with government and geopolitical implications, so there are plenty of other signals to execute on besides treasuries and oil.

WOOD

Lumber would be one of those signals. Notice last Tuesday was an important WHEN date. Problem is, without the Similar Set Signal you don’t see the WHEN until it’s already too late.

​Tuesday, August 18, 2026​

ENZL

August 13th was the week prior to last week—WHEN you should have been making significant executions.

GLD

There it is again, August 13th. Now are you taking SOME profits and rotating them into things like SPY today? That’s what I’m doing. Why? That’s what the fractal math is instructing. It’s simple but takes practice to execute. You also need to be able to see the full fractal math in real time to do it.

BTC

June 1st

August 13th

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