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Market is back to panic mode. That’s fine—we just got practice with this last week. Follow the fractal math. Reduce positions breaking TRADE; exit if they break TREND.

If you’ve been reading this newsletter daily through this transition, you’ve seen how many times I’ve used the word minimum. I’ve raised plenty of cash while US equities begin to transition (break TRADE). Transition does not mean crash—at least not yet (break TREND).

The most recent fractal signals have pointed to reducing US equities, shorting gold, staying long Bitcoin, reducing TLT, and shorting FX and global equities.

VIX

Don’t jump to conclusions in the morning. As of yesterday it closed bearish TRADE TREND. Today it’s pinned right at those levels and still has room to the upside or downside inside the RANGE. Wait and watch these levels closely today and tomorrow. I’m traveling today, so no newsletter tomorrow, but I’ll be back Monday.

MOVE

Bond volatility remains in a bullish TREND.

HYG

Credit remains in a bearish TREND. When overall market indicators show a potentially bullish VIX (pending closes), bullish MOVE, and bearish HYG, that combination usually signals Quad 4. The broader data does not currently point to Quad 4 for this month or quarter, which is exactly why you always listen to the signal first. Credit is still holding a higher low inside this bearish TREND—we’ll see how it develops.

SPY

SPY still has a long way to go before it breaks TREND. If we get meaningfully lower than the current price, the signal says REDUCE (not exit yet).

QQQ

Nasdaq is sitting right at TREND. This is a key level to hold, which is why today and tomorrow are important days to watch closely for the next move.

MAGS

MAGS is set to open while overrunning TRADE again, same as last week. If VIX holds above TREND and MAGS stays below TRADE, REDUCE.

AAPL

Apple has been relentless and remains unaffected by these panic moves.

Sector Signals

IGV

Software is holding a bullish TRADE. I’m not adding to equities until I see closing confirmation that VIX wants to hold a bearish TREND.

SMH

Semis triggered an exit last week and are opening to new lows today. Given how the market closed yesterday I wasn’t adding the short, but the signal already had me out.

​Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026​

QTUM

Same with QTUM.

SPCX

SpaceX crushed earnings and ran straight to the top end of the RANGE. That’s why you sell some strength rather than waiting for a 5% pullback off the highs. The signal is a real-time indicator.

XLE

Energy continues to be one of the strongest sectors to hold. The signal confirmed that on October 8 when it broke back to a bullish TRADE.

XLV

No panic in healthcare. These minimum positions continue to do most of the heavy lifting in US equities.

Macro Markets

DXY

The dollar remains bullish TRADE TREND with room to run higher. That keeps short FX and short global equities as key macro positions into this panicked open.

Euros

The signal is doing its job in FX and has nailed the exact top so far.

EPHE

Same setup in the Philippines.

TLT

If TLT closes where it opens it will be an exit after we reduced rate exposure yesterday. Markets apparently liked rising rates as US equities peaked and TLT bottomed. Today looks like more of the same. Follow the fractal math and ignore opinions about the headlines.

​Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026​

Oil

You might expect bullish TRADE TREND oil to push rates higher. That’s not what the signal is saying. Follow the fractal math.

GLD

Gold is opening to new lows. Again, these minimum positions are doing most of the work. Not a bad time to hold cash as the market transitions.

BTC

Bitcoin ripped to the top end of the RANGE yesterday—that’s when you sell some. Today it’s back at TRADE. Until the rest of the market settles I’m not adding back here, and I’m ready to reduce if it breaks TRADE.

The difference between reacting to panic and staying positioned is following the signals in real time. Similar Set Signal cuts through the noise, highlights the exact levels that matter (TRADE, TREND, RANGE), and tells you when to reduce, exit, or stay patient. If you want the same edge that has kept cash raised, shorts working, and positions sized correctly through every transition, subscribe to Similar Set Signal. You don't need me to tell you what to do you can read the math for yourself daily. Try it today 90 days risk free 👇

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