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Big shift in markets this week. Here’s a recap from yesterday—I recommend reviewing it if you’re confused by this market.

​Thursday, October 15, 2026​

VIX

Just like that, VIX is back to bearish TRADE TREND. During the panic, the math said to shift some weakening exposures—like growth tech and AI (QTUM/SMH)—into MAGS and SPY when VIX was at TREND.

MOVE

MOVE is still holding its bullish fractal formation, so expect rates to continue higher. Remember: markets like rising rates, despite the narratives on X.

HYG

Credit is holding its higher low, with the RANGE signaling no immediate risk of new cycle lows right now.

SPY

SPY looks strong here, with plenty of sectors in bullish TREND to support a move toward the top end of the RANGE.

MAGS

Mega caps giving the same signal.

QQQ

This is different from the Nasdaq signal, which said to reduce—hence the shift in exposure. QQQ is heavily influenced by AI, which is currently blowing out via the KOSPI.

KOSPI

KOSPI stabilized last night, but the damage has already been done to the signal: it’s firmly in bearish TRADE TREND.

IWM

Small caps have been a great hedge. Sold some yesterday at the lows when VIX was at TREND. Down to minimum size.

Sector Signals

IGV

Software had a nice bounce initially, but the signal is saying to reduce some today for the first time since flipping to bullish TREND back in August. Remember to review not just the most recent fractal instruction, but the last 3–5—that’s what your true performance should be based on. You can’t just follow the fractal math when it feels good or green. Reducing and exiting is just as important to process performance.

QTUM

The exit was two days ago in QTUM.

SMH

Same with Semis. Now that they’re out of your book, you can look to short them on a bounce to TREND—but we’ll see how the entire machine looks when that comes around. I don’t chase shorts on the low end of the RANGE after 8 straight down days.

SPCX

I like bidding TREND on the first break of TRADE. I wasn’t buying the low end of the RANGE in bearish TRADE. TREND is 140.62; SPCX’s low yesterday was 104.62.

XLE

Some summer sectors that have been big performers came back in this shift. Again, the market looks more like Quad 3 than Quad 2 at the moment. This is why you keep minimums on until TREND officially breaks.

XLV

Same with XLV. Since we’re at minimum, no selling some despite being out. We want long exposure when VIX is in bearish TRADE TREND.

XLU

Rates are holding up here still, but as mentioned in MOVE—and what we’ll review in TLT—the math expects them to reverse, which is good for XLU. Went to minimum in XLU 3 days ago; core position is from higher in the summer.

Macro Markets

DXY

Yesterday the strongest opportunity I saw was MAGS. Today it’s FX.

British Pounds

Hammering British Pounds today. Remember to size based on volatility, so a 5% move in SMH is similar to a 0.5% move in FX.

TLT

Not a place to panic in Rates. This is where you make sure you are fully exposed to TLT. If it breaks TREND, exit all—but the math says this is exactly where to get short, with TREND above RANGE and on a massive bounce.

USO

Oil should help rates reverse.

GLD

Gold is at the top end of the RANGE. It’s at my minimum, like XLU. Full short on TLT is how I’m playing this signal. Pair it with the new FX short. Markets aren’t just US equities. You want a fully diversified book—and it shows in tough markets like these who just knows how to buy the dip versus who fully risk-manages the machine.

BTC

Another day, another TRADE hold. The signal is weakening a bit with RANGE falling below TRADE, but nothing to do unless it breaks. If it does, reduce from the core position (which should be from much lower—last 3 signals, not just the most recent), then place bids at TREND to re-gross back up at $75K.

If you’re tired of getting whipped around by narratives, panic, and incomplete signals—while the math quietly tells you exactly when to shift, reduce, hold, or size up—Similar Set Signal is built for that.

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